330
FXUS62 KMHX 201904
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
304 PM EDT SUN SEP 20 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
PRECIP CHANCES DECREASED FURTHER FOR MONDAY. REDUCED THUNDER
CHANCES INLAND WEDNESDAY ONWARDS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) PERIODS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS EARLY THROUGH MID NEXT
WEEK.
2) INCREASED MARINE IMPACTS MID THROUGH LATE WEEK AS HIGH WAVES
AND POTENTIALLY STRONG WINDS IMPACT THE OBX AND ADJACENT WATERS
AND SOUNDS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1.ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE ALONG THE COAST THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH THUNDERSTORMS REMAINING WELL OFFSHORE. WINDS
SLOWLY SHIFTING TO BECOME EASTERLY THIS AFTERNOON, BECOMING
VARIABLE THIS EVENING THEN CALM TONIGHT. TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW
MORNING, CALM WINDS WILL BRING A FOG THREAT AWAY FROM THE COAST,
WHICH COULD BE LOCALLY DENSE JUST BEFORE/AROUND SUNRISE. NEXT
APPRECIABLE CHANCE OF RAIN ARRIVES MON AND TUE AS YET ANOTHER
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES SOUTHWARD. FOR MON, THE RAIN CHANCES ARE
CONFINED TO MAINLY NW ZONES AS THE FRONT HAS TRENDED SLOWER AND
LATER IN THE DAY. TUE APPEARS THE BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS AS PW'S SURGE TO AOA 2" AND
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS DRAPED ACRS ENC, AND THUS POPS RAISED TO
60-70%.
KEY MESSAGE 2...BY MID WEEK, STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
BECOMES ANCHORED ACRS NEW ENGLAND AND ERN CANADA, WHILE AT THE
SAME TIME BROAD LOW PRES DEVELOPS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST,
TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE MID- ATLANTIC AND
NORTHEAST. THIS SETUP WILL USHER IN STRONGER NE WINDS INTO
COASTAL ENC. EXACT TIMING, PLACEMENT, AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW
WILL DICTATE WIND SPEEDS AND IMPACTS TO COASTAL ENC. ENSEMBLE
PROBS STILL SHOW POTENTIAL FOR 20-30MPH SUSTAINED WINDS, GUSTING
TO 40-50MPH ALONG OBX. THIS HOWEVER IS HIGHLY VARIABLE AS IT
DEPENDS ON THE LOW. WHAT IS CERTAIN IS THAT A LONG FETCH OF
TIGHTENED NERLY GRADIENT WINDS OFFSHORE WILL BRING HIGH WAVE
ENERGY TOWARDS VULNERABLE PORTIONS OF THE OUTER BANKS. IT IS TOO
SOON TO DETERMINE SPECIFICS AT THIS POINT AND TRENDS WILL HAVE
TO BE MONITORED IN THE COMING DAYS. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
OVER 9 FOOT WAVES AT OVER 9 SECOND PERIODS IMPACTING THE OUTER
BANKS LATE THIS WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR ACROSS ENC WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN CU AT 3.5-4.5 KFT.
SHOWER CHANCES ARE CONFINED TO THE COAST, WITH THUNDER CHANCES
LOW THROUGH TODAY. WINDS CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS
THE SEA BREEZE IS PINNED TO THE COAST AS THE COLD FRONT STILL
SITS TO OUR SOUTH. TONIGHT WINDS BECOME CALM, WHEN PAIRED WITH
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BRINGS A FOG AND LOW STRATUS THREAT TONIGHT.
MOST OF NOT ALL GUIDANCE IS POINTING AT FOG TONIGHT, SOME OF
WHICH COULD BE LOCALLY DENSE. IFR VISIBILITIES HAVE CONTINUED TO
BE INCLUDED IN THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE, IN ADDITION TO SOME IFR
STRATUS MENTIONS. IF STRATUS BUILDS UP, IT COULD TAKE A WHILE TO
BURN OFF MONDAY MORNING.
OUTLOOK (MON THROUGH THU): ANOTHER COLD FRONT DROPS IN MON AND
TUE WITH A RETURN TO UNSETTLED WEATHER AND RAIN CHANCES. THIS
AND THE POTENTIAL COLD AIR DAMMING PATTERN DEVELOPS NEXT WEEK
WITH A RISK OF PROLONGED SUB- VFR CONDITIONS AND BREEZY NNERLY
WINDS ESP WED INTO THE END OF THE WEEK.
MARINE
AS EASTERLY WINDS AT 5-10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON BECOMES SERLY
LATE TODAY AS HIGH PRES MOVES OFFSHORE, THEN SWRLY LATER TONIGHT
AHEAD OF NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY, BUT REMAIN ONLY IN THE 5-10 KT
RANGE. SEAS ARE A BIT ELEVATED AT 3-5 FT, BECOMING 2-4 FT MONDAY
AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK (MON THROUGH THU): WINDS REMAIN IN THE 5-15 KT RANGE MON
INTO TUE WITH SEAS 2-4 FT. NE WINDS AND SEAS BEGIN TO BUILD
TUESDAY PM AND ESP WED AS PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AS WE ARE
SANDWICHED BETWEEN A STRONG HIGH TO OUR NORTH AND A NON-
TROPICAL LOW DEVELOPING WELL OFFSHORE. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR NERLY GALES BY WED THOUGH STILL LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY ON HOW
CLOSE AND STRONG THE OFFSHORE LOW PRES BECOMES. WHAT IS MORE
CERTAIN IS A LONG DURATION OF DANGEROUS SEAS OF 8-10+ FT
DEVELOPING MID WEEK AND LASTING THROUGH MUCH OF THE REST OF THE
WEEK.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ203-
205.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...TL/RJ
AVIATION...TL/RJ
MARINE...TL/RJ
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