882
FXUS62 KMHX 210000
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
800 PM EDT SUN SEP 20 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
PRECIP CHANCES DECREASED FURTHER FOR MONDAY. REDUCED THUNDER
CHANCES INLAND WEDNESDAY ONWARDS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) PERIODS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS EARLY THROUGH MID NEXT
WEEK.
2) INCREASED MARINE IMPACTS MID THROUGH LATE WEEK AS HIGH WAVES
AND POTENTIALLY STRONG WINDS IMPACT THE OBX AND ADJACENT WATERS
AND SOUNDS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING, CALM WINDS WILL
BRING A FOG THREAT AWAY FROM THE COAST, WHICH COULD BE LOCALLY
DENSE JUST BEFORE/AROUND SUNRISE. NEXT APPRECIABLE CHANCE OF
RAIN ARRIVES MON AND TUE AS YET ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES
SOUTHWARD. FOR MON, THE RAIN CHANCES ARE CONFINED TO MAINLY NW
ZONES AS THE FRONT HAS TRENDED SLOWER AND LATER IN THE DAY. TUE
APPEARS THE BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS AS PW'S SURGE TO AOA 2" AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
DRAPED ACRS ENC, AND THUS POPS RAISED TO 60-70%.
KEY MESSAGE 2...BY MID WEEK, STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
BECOMES ANCHORED ACRS NEW ENGLAND AND ERN CANADA, WHILE AT THE
SAME TIME BROAD LOW PRES DEVELOPS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST,
TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE MID- ATLANTIC AND
NORTHEAST. THIS SETUP WILL USHER IN STRONGER NE WINDS INTO
COASTAL ENC. EXACT TIMING, PLACEMENT, AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW
WILL DICTATE WIND SPEEDS AND IMPACTS TO COASTAL ENC. ENSEMBLE
PROBS STILL SHOW POTENTIAL FOR 20-30MPH SUSTAINED WINDS, GUSTING
TO 40-50MPH ALONG OBX. THIS HOWEVER IS HIGHLY VARIABLE AS IT
DEPENDS ON THE LOW. WHAT IS CERTAIN IS THAT A LONG FETCH OF
TIGHTENED NERLY GRADIENT WINDS OFFSHORE WILL BRING HIGH WAVE
ENERGY TOWARDS VULNERABLE PORTIONS OF THE OUTER BANKS. IT IS TOO
SOON TO DETERMINE SPECIFICS AT THIS POINT AND TRENDS WILL HAVE
TO BE MONITORED IN THE COMING DAYS. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
OVER 9 FOOT WAVES AT OVER 9 SECOND PERIODS IMPACTING THE OUTER
BANKS LATE THIS WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE OVER ALL TERMINALS THIS EVENING WITH
ONLY DECAYING UPPER-LEVEL CLOUDS LEFT OVERHEAD. ENVIRONMENT
TONIGHT REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR FOG WITH PRIMARILY CLEAR SKIES AND
CALM WINDS FOR MOST INLAND AREAS, AND MODEL SOUNDINGS DEPICTING
A SHALLOW BUT FULLY SATURATED SURFACE LAYER. PROBABILISTIC
GUIDANCE ADDS CONFIDENCE TO THIS SCENARIO, WITH THE LAMP
SHOWING THE LIKELIHOOD OF IFR OR WORSE AT 50-70% FOR ALL
TERMINALS. SOME FOG COULD BE LOCALLY DENSE AT LESS THAN A MILE,
ESPECIALLY AFTER 10-11Z. POOR MIXING MON MORNING MAY DELAY
LIFTING OF STRATUS UNTIL AFTER 14Z IN A WORST CASE SCENARIO.
BENIGN FLYING CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF TOMORROW WITH EAST
TO EAST SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS OF 5-10 KT. COLD FRONT DROPS INTO
THE AREA LATE MONDAY, BUT RAIN CHANCES WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF
UNTIL AFTER 00Z TUES.
OUTLOOK (MON THROUGH THU): THIS AND THE POTENTIAL COLD AIR
DAMMING PATTERN DEVELOPS MID-WEEK WITH A RISK OF PROLONGED SUB-
VFR CONDITIONS AND BREEZY NNERLY WINDS ESP WED INTO THE END OF
THE WEEK.
MARINE
AS EASTERLY WINDS AT 5-10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON BECOMES SERLY
LATE TODAY AS HIGH PRES MOVES OFFSHORE, THEN SWRLY LATER TONIGHT
AHEAD OF NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY, BUT REMAIN ONLY IN THE 5-10 KT
RANGE. SEAS ARE A BIT ELEVATED AT 3-5 FT, BECOMING 2-4 FT MONDAY
AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK (MON THROUGH THU): WINDS REMAIN IN THE 5-15 KT RANGE MON
INTO TUE WITH SEAS 2-4 FT. NE WINDS AND SEAS BEGIN TO BUILD
TUESDAY PM AND ESP WED AS PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AS WE ARE
SANDWICHED BETWEEN A STRONG HIGH TO OUR NORTH AND A NON-
TROPICAL LOW DEVELOPING WELL OFFSHORE. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR NERLY GALES BY WED THOUGH STILL LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY ON HOW
CLOSE AND STRONG THE OFFSHORE LOW PRES BECOMES. WHAT IS MORE
CERTAIN IS A LONG DURATION OF DANGEROUS SEAS OF 8-10+ FT
DEVELOPING MID WEEK AND LASTING THROUGH MUCH OF THE REST OF THE
WEEK.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ203-
205.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...TL/RJ
AVIATION...TL/MS/RJ
MARINE...TL/RJ
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