217
FXUS62 KMHX 220730
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
330 AM EDT TUE SEP 22 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
HAVE CONVERTED GALE WATCHES TO WARNINGS, AND STARTED HEADLINES
6-12 HOURS EARLIER WITH EARLIER ONSET OF STRONG WINDS EXPECTED.
ISSUED COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FOR HATTERAS AND OCRACOKE ISLANDS.
LIMITED THUNDER CHANCES TO OBX AND GULF STREAM WATERS TUE NIGHT
AND BEYOND.
UPDATED 22/06Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) LARGE AND SLOW MOVING COASTAL LOW TO IMPACT ENC WITH PERIODS
OF RAIN, STRONG WINDS, AND COASTAL FLOODING MID TO LATE WEEK.
MARINE: GALE FORCE WINDS AND VERY DANGEROUS HIGH SEAS MID
THROUGH LATE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...A COMPLEX AND INITIALLY DISORGANIZED SURFACE
AND UPPER LEVEL PATTERN TODAY WILL BEGIN TO CONSOLIDATE INTO A
NOTABLE EAST COAST COASTAL LOW MID TO LATE-WEEK WITH A LONG
DURATION OF STRONG WINDS, VERY HIGH SEAS, AND COASTAL FLOODING
ACROSS THE OBX AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS, SOUNDS, AND RIVERS.
CURRENTLY, ENC REMAINS WEDGED BETWEEN TWO SYSTEMS, WITH AN UPPER
LOW AND COLD FRONT TO THE NORTH AND WEST, WHILE WEAK COASTAL
TROUGHING OFF THE COAST. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
SAG SOUTH FROM VIRGINIA INTO NORTH CAROLINA AND STRENGTHEN NERLY
FLOW OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS. PERIODS OF SHOWERS WILL BREAK
OUT TODAY AS VORTICITY ADVECTION SLOWLY INCREASES WITH FGEN
BANDING ALOFT LEADING TO THE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS. A FEW STORMS MAY
DEVELOP AS WELL, THOUGH WITH WEAK INSTABILITY PRESENT DUE TO
WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS, THE THUNDER THREAT IS MINIMAL AND
CERTAINLY NO STRONG TO SEVERE EXPECTED.
LATE TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING, THE ABOVE- MENTIONED WEAK LOW IS
THEN FORECAST TO DEEPEN ALONG THE CONSOLIDATING, AND
STRENGTHENING, FRONTAL/BAROCLINIC ZONE OFF THE EAST COAST.
22/00Z MODEL SUITE HAS TRENDED QUICKER WITH PRESSURE FALLS AND
RESULTANT STRENGTHENING NORTHEASTERLY WINDS, WITH GUSTY WINDS
BECOMING GALES AS EARLY AS EARLY WED MORNING FOR NORTHERN
COASTAL AREAS AND QUICKLY SPREADING SOUTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
CONFIDENCE CONTINUE TO INCREASE REGARDING A SUB-1000MB LOW
DEVELOPING OFFSHORE DURING THIS TIME, AND THIS IS STRONGLY
SUPPORTED BY DETERMINISTIC, ENSEMBLE, AND MACHINE LEARNING
GUIDANCE. BECAUSE OF THE BLOCKY NATURE OF THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN OVER THE ATLANTIC, THE LOW WILL BE SLOW MOVING AND
MEANDER ABOUT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH LATE IN THE
WEEK, AND THUS A PROLONGED DURATION OF HIGH WINDS ON THE COAST
WILL LEAD TO HIGH IMPACTS REGARDING COASTAL FLOODING ON THE OBX.
PERIODS OF RAIN, SOME HEAVY AT TIMES, MAY LEAD TO RAINFALL
TOTALS OF 2-3" ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA, THOUGH WITH THIS RAIN
BEING DRAWN OUT OVER SEVERAL DAYS (TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY),
SIGNIFICANT RAINWATER FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
THE STRONGEST WINDS AND GREATEST RISK OF COASTAL IMPACTS IS
EXPECTED THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE OBX.
PERSISTENT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS COUPLED WITH A LONGER FETCH
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC SHOULD SUPPORT LONG-PERIOD SWELL OF 10-13S
AND SEAS OF 10-16+ FT LEADING TO BREAKING WAVE HEIGHTS OF OVER
10 FT FOR BEACHES FROM DUCK TO CAPE LOOKOUT. NOT ONLY WILL THIS
CREATE DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS, BUT THIS WILL ALSO PRESENT A
RISK OF BEACH EROSION, OCEAN OVERWASH AT VULNERABLE LOCATIONS,
AND COASTAL FLOODING (BOTH SOUNDSIDE AND OCEANSIDE), WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ON HATTERAS AND OCRACOKE
ISLANDS WHERE A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED. LARGE
BATTERING WAVES MAY LAST INTO THE WEEKEND EVEN AS WINDS DIMINISH
DUE TO THE LOW POTENTIALLY RETROGRADING TOWARDS THE MID ATLANTIC
COASTLINE TO THE NORTH OF ENC, AS THE AIFS AND A DECENT HANDFUL
OF ECM ENSEMBLES INDICATE. THE STRONG WINDS ON THE OBX MAY
EVENTUALLY WARRANT WIND ADVISORY ISSUANCE ON THURSDAY AND
POTENTIALLY INTO FRIDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
LARGE BANK OF LOWERING STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO AFFLICT THE
TERMINALS OVERNIGHT INTO TUE MORNING. LIFR STRATUS APPEARS
LIKELY, AND HAVE THIS IN FCST THROUGH MID MORNING. DURING THE
DAY TUE, SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BREAK OUT, WITH EVEN A FEW
EMBEDDED STORMS POSSIBLE. CIGS MAY LOWER BACK DOWN TO IFR OR
LOWER ON TUE NIGHT.
OUTLOOK (WED THROUGH SAT): A COASTAL LOW WILL DEEPEN OFFSHORE
WED SUPPORTING PERIODS OF CONTINUED RAIN AND LOW CLOUDS, ALONG
WITH GUSTY NERLY WINDS SOME SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO THU ALONG
WITH CONTINUED GUSTY WINDS BEFORE DRYING OUT THU NIGHT INTO FRI.
MARINE
NERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT AS LOW
PRES BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE OFFSHORE ALONG THE COLD FRONT THAT
DROPS SOUTH. SPEEDS OF 10-20 KT TODAY INCREASE TO 15-25 KT
TONIGHT ALONG WITH BUILDING SEAS OF 6+ FT TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK (WED THROUGH SAT): A NOTABLE COASTAL LOW IS FORECAST TO
IMPACT THE AREA MID TO LATE WEEK WITH A PERIOD OF HAZARDOUS
WINDS AND SEAS. CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN WIDESPREAD
GALE- FORCE WINDS FOR THE WATERS AND SOUNDS, ALONG WITH
ALLIGATOR RIVER, AND HAVE THUS ISSUED GALE WARNINGS FOR THESE
ZONES BEGINNING AS EARLY AS EARLY WED MORNING, WHILE SCA HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR THE INLAND RIVERS (PAMLICO AND NEUSE, ALONG WITH
THEIR TRIBUTARIES). AT THE PEAK, THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
COASTAL WATERS (NEARSHORE AND OUTER ALONG WITH EASTERN PAMLICO
SOUND) MAY SEE GUSTS OF 40-45KT WITH THE MOST LIKELY TIMING OF
HIGHEST WINDS ON THURSDAY. ADDITIONALLY, VERY HIGHS SEAS WILL
PEAK AT 10-15 FT FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS, AND 15-20 FT FOR THE
OFFSHORE WATERS.
A LONG DURATION EVENT IS EXPECTED, AND WHILE GALES ARE EXPECTED
TO FINALLY DIMISH THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY, LARGE DANGEROUS
SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH THE WEEKEND, AS THE LARGE
AREA OF LOW PRES BEGINS TO RETROGRADE TOWARDS THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST NORTH OF ENC.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT THURSDAY
NIGHT FOR AMZ131-230-231.
GALE WARNING FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ135.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM WEDNESDAY TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY
FOR AMZ136-137.
GALE WARNING FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ150-
152-180-182.
GALE WARNING FROM 2 PM WEDNESDAY TO 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ154-
184-186.
GALE WARNING FROM 2 PM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT THURSDAY
NIGHT FOR AMZ156-158-188.
DISCUSSION...TL
AVIATION...TL/MS
MARINE...TL
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