814
FXUS62 KMHX 222020
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
420 PM EDT TUE SEP 22 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE OBX.
A HIGH SURF ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR HATTERAS ISLAND.
COASTAL FLOOD HEADLINES HAVE BEEN ISSUED OR UPGRADED.
WINDS HAVE SLIGHTLY INCREASED.
KEY MESSAGES
1) LARGE AND SLOW MOVING COASTAL LOW TO IMPACT ENC WITH PERIODS
OF RAIN, STRONG WINDS, AND COASTAL FLOODING MID TO LATE WEEK.
MARINE: GALE FORCE WINDS AND VERY DANGEROUS HIGH SEAS MID TO
LATE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...A CONSOLIDATION OF SURFACE LOWS IS EXPECTED TO
OCCUR ALONG AN ELONGATED BAROCLINIC ZONE OFF THE U.S. EAST COAST
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO. RAPID DEEPENING OF A CONSOLIDATED
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS THEN FORECAST LATER WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY AS A NOTABLE COASTAL LOW TAKES SHAPE. THIS LOW IS THEN
FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH TOWARDS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND, THEN
EVENTUALLY WEAKEN AS IT POTENTIALLY WOBBLES AROUND THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST OVER THE WEEKEND. REGARDING THE TRACK AND THE
STRENGTH OF THE LOW, MOST ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE
HAVE SHOWN A SLIGHT TREND WEST, AND HAVE ALSO GENERALLY TRENDED
DEEPER. ADDITIONALLY, SOME GUIDANCE, PARTICULARLY MACHINE
LEARNING GUIDANCE, HAVE TRENDED A BIT SLOWER WITH THE NORTHWARD
PROGRESSION AS WELL. FOR ENC, THESE TRENDS COULD SPELL A LONGER
DURATION OF MARINE AND COASTAL IMPACTS, AND POTENTIALLY A SLIGHT
UPTICK IN THE MAGNITUDE OF IMPACTS AS WELL. NOT ALL GUIDANCE
HAVE SHOWN THE WESTWARD SHIFT, THOUGH, AND THIS IS SOMETHING
WE'LL CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR MOVING FORWARD.
REGARDING SENSIBLE WEATHER, SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH AROUND SUNSET THIS EVENING
ACROSS THE ENC COASTAL PLAIN, WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN CLOSER
TO THE COAST. THIS SHOWERY TYPE OF PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THURSDAY. WHILE AN AREA OF FOCUSED LIFT AND HIGHER
RAINFALL TOTALS MAY STILL DEVELOP, THE LATEST GUIDANCE HAVE
BACKED OFF ON THIS POTENTIAL, AND IT APPEARS THE RISK OF
FLOODING DUE TO RAIN IS LOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT.
BY FAR, THE GREATEST IMPACTS WITH THIS COASTAL LOW ARE EXPECTED
FOR THE OUTER BANKS. THERE, A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO STRONG
NORTHEAST TO NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS EARLY AS
WEDNESDAY, AND THEN POTENTIALLY LAST WELL INTO THE DAY FRIDAY,
ESPECIALLY IF THE LATEST WESTWARD AND SLOWER TREND HOLDS.
PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE SHOWS A STRONG SIGNAL FOR REACHING WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA WITH BOTH SUSTAINED WINDS AND GUSTS, AND AND
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR DARE COUNTY, OCRACOKE, AND DOWNEAST
CARTERET COUNTY. FOR THE OBX FROM CAPE HATTERAS NORTH, PEAK
GUSTS COULD TOP OUT AROUND 50 MPH, AND THIS MAY LEAD TO SOME
MINOR TREE AND POWER LINE DAMAGE, ALONG WITH A RISK OF ISOLATED
POWER OUTAGES.
THE STRONG, AND LONGER DURATION, OF THE WINDS IS ALSO EXPECTED
TO SUPPORT AN INCREASED RISK OF COASTAL IMPACTS. BUILDING SEAS
AND INCREASING SWELL PERIODS WILL LEAD TO DANGEROUS SURF
CONDITIONS IN ADDITION TO A RISK OF BEACH EROSION, WAVE RUNUP,
OCEAN OVERWASH, AND MINOR TO MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING. WAVE
HEIGHTS IN THE SURF ZONE MAY REACH 10-15FT AT 10-13S FROM DUCK
TO CAPE HATTERAS, PEAKING ON THURSDAY. 6-8FT+ WAVE HEIGHTS IN
THE SURF ZONE MAY LAST INTO THIS WEEKEND. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY
IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. THE
STRENGTH, AND DURATION, OF THE SWELL IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO AN
INCREASED RISK OF OCEAN OVERWASH AND MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING
FOR THE VULNERABLE STRETCHES OF THE COASTLINE ALONG HATTERAS
ISLAND. WHERE DUNE STRUCTURES ARE LESS VULNERABLE, MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE.
FOR SOUNDSIDE AREAS ADJACENT TO THE SOUTHERN PAMLICO SOUND, AND
THE NEARBY NEUSE RIVER, PERSISTENT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS MAY LEAD
TO MINOR COASTAL FLOODING LATER WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
EVENTUALLY THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO TURN MORE NORTHERLY, WHICH
MAY THEN ALLOW THE SOUNDSIDE COASTAL FLOODING RISK TO SHIFT TO
PORTIONS OF OCRACOKE AND HATTERAS VILLAGES.
PLEASE CONTINUE TO STAY TUNED FOR FUTURE UPDATES AS THIS IS A
COMPLEX AND LONGER-DURATION COASTAL LOW EVENT, WITH SUBTLE
CHANGES IN STRENGTH AND PATH OF THE LOW LEADING TO INCREASED, OR
DECREASED, COASTAL IMPACTS.
AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
SHRA AND A FEW TSRA WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT KPGV AND KISO FOR
THE NEXT FEW HOURS, WITH A LOWER RISK FOR KOAJ, KEWN, AND KMRH.
CIGS HAVE MOSTLY RAISED TO VFR FOR NOW, BUT THE EXPECTATION IS
FOR CIGS TO DROP BACK DOWN TO IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING,
AND THEN CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. GUIDANCE IS MIXED ON WHETHER
OR NOT IFR CIGS LAST WELL INTO THE DAY WEDNESDAY OR IF, LIKE
TODAY, THEY RAISE ABOVE IFR. FOR NOW I HAVE THE TAFS SHOWING A
RISE TO MVFR. PERIODS OF SHRA WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE AREA,
BUT THE RISK OF TSRA SHOULD DECREASE AFTER THIS AFTERNOON.
LASTLY, AS A COASTAL LOW BECOMES BETTER ORGANIZED EAST OF ENC,
THE STRENGTHENING GRADIENT SHOULD LEAD TO INCREASING NE WINDS ON
WEDNESDAY, WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN THE RISK OF 20-25KT
GUSTS.
OUTLOOK: A COASTAL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT PERIODS OF
GUSTY WINDS, LOW CIGS, AND SHRA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
CIGS MAY EVENTUALLY RISE TO VFR LEVELS BY THE WEEKEND AS DRIER
AIR BEGINS TO WRAPAROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW.
MARINE
A COUPLE OF AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST
WILL BEGIN TO CONSOLIDATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, WITH A NOTABLY
STRONG COASTAL LOW FORMING, WITH A PRESSURE AS LOW AS AROUND
990MB LIKELY. THIS WILL SUPPORT A LONG-DURATION PERIOD OF
HAZARDOUS WINDS AND SEAS FOR ALL MARINE AREAS. FOR THE COASTAL
WATERS, SEAS OF 10-20FT WILL BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY FOR THE
WATERS FROM CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH THROUGH DUCK. THE NEARSHORE
COASTAL WATERS SHELTERED IN N AND NE FLOW SOUTH OF LOOKOUT MAY
ONLY HAVE SEAS PEAK AT 5-10FT. SWELL PERIODS WILL GRADUALLY
BUILD TO 10-13S DURING THIS TIME AS WELL. MARINE HEADLINES IN
EFFECT NICELY COVER THE EXPECTED HAZARDS, AND THE ONLY CHANGES
WERE TO ADJUST THE ENDING TIMES FOR A FEW AREAS.
OUTLOOK: BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE, HAZARDOUS MARINE
CONDITIONS MAY LAST WELL INTO THE WEEKEND, ESPECIALLY FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS AS SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED. HOWEVER, WINDS SHOULD
GRADUALLY LAY DOWN OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY AND
WEAKENS.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 PM WEDNESDAY TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
NCZ047-196-203>205.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 2 PM WEDNESDAY TO 11 AM EDT FRIDAY
FOR NCZ094-194-196.
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR NCZ195-196-199-203>205.
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ203-
205.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY
FOR NCZ203.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 2 PM WEDNESDAY TO 11 PM EDT FRIDAY
FOR NCZ203.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 2 PM WEDNESDAY TO 11 PM EDT FRIDAY
FOR NCZ204-205.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 4 AM WEDNESDAY TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY
FOR NCZ205.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ131-
230-231.
GALE WARNING FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 2 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ135.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM WEDNESDAY TO 2 PM EDT FRIDAY
FOR AMZ136-137.
GALE WARNING FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ150-
152-180-182.
GALE WARNING FROM 2 PM WEDNESDAY TO 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ154-
184-186.
GALE WARNING FROM 2 PM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT THURSDAY
NIGHT FOR AMZ156-158-188.
DISCUSSION...RM
AVIATION...RM
MARINE...RM
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page