866
FXUS62 KMHX 231744
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
144 PM EDT WED SEP 23 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
POPS UPDATED BASED ON CURRENT RADAR OBSERVATIONS. REST OF
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
KEY MESSAGES
1) LARGE AND SLOW MOVING COASTAL LOW TO IMPACT ENC WITH PERIODS OF
RAIN, STRONG WINDS, AND COASTAL FLOODING STARTING TODAY AND
PERSISTING INTO LATE WEEK.
MARINE: GALE FORCE WINDS AND VERY DANGEROUS HIGH SEAS MID TO
LATE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1..
9AM UPDATE: UPDATED POPS TO DECREASE ACROSS ENC WITH MINIMAL
COVERAGE THIS MORNING. COVERAGE INCREASES FOR NW COUNTIES LATER,
BUT THUNDER CHANCES REMAIN LOW WITH MEAGER INSTABILITY THANKS TO
THE STRATUS LAYER OVERHEAD.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO FORECAST
THINKING AS A CONSOLIDATION OF SURFACE LOWS IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR
ALONG AN ELONGATED BAROCLINIC ZONE OFF THE U.S. EAST COAST
LATER TODAY. RAPID DEEPENING OF THIS LOW PRESSURE IS THEN
FORECAST LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS A NOTABLE COASTAL LOW
TAKES SHAPE. THIS LOW IS THEN FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH TOWARDS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND, THEN EVENTUALLY WEAKEN AS IT POTENTIALLY
WOBBLES AROUND THE NEW ENGLAND COAST OVER THE WEEKEND. REGARDING
THE TRACK AND THE STRENGTH OF THIS LOW, MOST GUIDANCE HAS
SHIFTED SLIGHTLY LATER IN THIS LOWS EXIT KEEPING STRONGER WINDS
IN PLACE SLIGHTLY LONGER ACROSS THE AREA WATERS AND OBX. WILL
NOTE, NOT ALL GUIDANCE IS AS SLOW OR AS DEEP WITH THIS LOWS
DEPARTURE AND WHILE THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY UP
COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST, SOME FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS
INCLUDING A DECREASE IN WIND POTENTIAL IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION JUST YET.
REGARDING SENSIBLE WEATHER, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY WITH THE
BEST CHANCES TO SEE PRECIPITATION LIKELY ALONG AND EAST OF HWY
17. WHILE AN AREA OF FOCUSED LIFT AND HIGHER RAINFALL TOTALS MAY
STILL DEVELOP, THE LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BACK OFF ON
THIS POTENTIAL, AND IT APPEARS THE RISK OF FLOODING DUE TO RAIN
REMAINS LOW.
BY FAR, THE GREATEST IMPACTS WITH THIS COASTAL LOW ARE EXPECTED
FOR THE OUTER BANKS. THERE, A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO STRONG
NORTHEAST TO NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER TODAY,
AND THEN POTENTIALLY LAST WELL INTO THE DAY FRIDAY AND
POTENTIALLY AS LATE AS SATURDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY IF THE
LATEST WESTWARD AND SLOWER TREND HOLDS. PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE
SHOWS A STRONG SIGNAL FOR REACHING WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA WITH
BOTH SUSTAINED WINDS AND GUSTS, AND THE WIND ADVISORY FOR DARE
COUNTY, OCRACOKE, AND DOWNEAST CARTERET COUNTY REMAINS IN EFFECT
STARTING LATER THIS AFTERNOON. FOR THE OBX FROM CAPE HATTERAS
NORTH, PEAK GUSTS COULD TOP OUT AROUND 50 MPH, AND THIS MAY LEAD
TO SOME MINOR TREE AND POWER LINE DAMAGE, ALONG WITH A RISK OF
ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES.
THE STRONG, AND LONGER DURATION, OF THE WINDS IS ALSO EXPECTED
TO SUPPORT AN INCREASED RISK OF COASTAL IMPACTS. BUILDING SEAS
AND INCREASING SWELL PERIODS WILL LEAD TO DANGEROUS SURF
CONDITIONS IN ADDITION TO A RISK OF BEACH EROSION, WAVE RUNUP,
OCEAN OVERWASH, AND MINOR TO MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING. WAVE
HEIGHTS IN THE SURF ZONE MAY REACH 10-15FT AT 10-13S FROM DUCK
TO CAPE HATTERAS, PEAKING ON THURSDAY. 6-8FT+ WAVE HEIGHTS IN
THE SURF ZONE MAY LAST INTO THIS WEEKEND. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. THE STRENGTH, AND
DURATION, OF THE SWELL IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO AN INCREASED RISK
OF OCEAN OVERWASH AND MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING FOR THE
VULNERABLE STRETCHES OF THE COASTLINE ALONG HATTERAS ISLAND.
WHERE DUNE STRUCTURES ARE LESS VULNERABLE, MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE.
FOR SOUNDSIDE AREAS ADJACENT TO THE SOUTHERN PAMLICO SOUND, AND
THE NEARBY NEUSE RIVER, PERSISTENT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS MAY LEAD
TO MINOR COASTAL FLOODING LATER WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
EVENTUALLY THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO TURN MORE NORTHERLY, WHICH
MAY THEN ALLOW THE SOUNDSIDE COASTAL FLOODING RISK TO SHIFT TO
PORTIONS OF OCRACOKE AND HATTERAS VILLAGES.
PLEASE CONTINUE TO STAY TUNED FOR FUTURE UPDATES AS THIS IS A
COMPLEX AND LONGER-DURATION COASTAL LOW EVENT, WITH SUBTLE
CHANGES IN STRENGTH AND PATH OF THE LOW LEADING TO INCREASED, OR
DECREASED, COASTAL IMPACTS.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
CURRENTLY MVFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING AT ALL TAF SITES THIS
AFTERNOON AS CEILINGS PERSIST IN THE 1-2 KFT RANGE. BREEZY
CONDITIONS PICKING UP WITH GUSTS OUT OF THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST
AT 15 TO 20 KTS. CURRENTLY SOME LIGHT VCSH NEAR PGV AND ISO BUT
THE CORRIDOR BETWEEN OAJ AND EWN IS DRY AT THIS TIME.
NO REAL CHANGE IN FORECAST THINKING AS A COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED
TO VARY BETWEEN LOW MVFR TO IFR INTO TONIGHT AS LOW STRATUS
CONTINUES TO STREAM INTO ENC TODAY. A MORE PRONOUNCED PERIOD OF
IFR MAY PRESIDE FOR PGV AND KISO LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH IFR MORE QUESTIONABLE AT OAJ AND EWN.
REGARDLESS OF THE ARRIVAL OF IFR CONDITIONS, MVFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
OVERNIGHT EXPECT NORTHEASTERLY WIND GUSTS IN THE 15 TO 20 KT
RANGE AND RISING TO 20-25 KTS AFTER SUNRISE THURSDAY. BEWARE OF
CROSSWIND COMPONENT AT KEWN ON RNWY 14/32.
OUTLOOK: A COASTAL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT PERIODS OF
GUSTY WINDS, LOW CIGS, AND SHRA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
CIGS MAY EVENTUALLY RISE TO VFR LEVELS BY THE WEEKEND AS DRIER
AIR BEGINS TO WRAPAROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW.
MARINE
CONSOLIDATING AND DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST WILL RESULT IN DANGEROUS BOATING CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. FOR THE COASTAL WATERS, GALE FORCE NERLY WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA LATER TODAY WITH 20-30 KT WINDS
AND 35-45 KT GUSTS FORECAST FOR JUST ABOUT ALL OF THE WATERS
OUTSIDE OF THE PAMLICO/PUNGO/NEUSE/BAY RIVERS WHERE SCA
CONDITIONS WILL BE NOTED. SEAS OF 10-20FT WILL BE POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY FOR THE WATERS FROM CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH THROUGH DUCK.
THE NEARSHORE COASTAL WATERS SHELTERED IN N AND NE FLOW SOUTH OF
LOOKOUT MAY ONLY HAVE SEAS PEAK AT 5-10FT. SWELL PERIODS WILL
GRADUALLY BUILD TO 10-13S DURING THIS TIME AS WELL. MARINE
HEADLINES IN EFFECT NICELY COVER THE EXPECTED HAZARDS, AND THE
ONLY CHANGES WERE TO ADJUST THE ENDING TIMES FOR A FEW AREAS.
OUTLOOK: BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE, HAZARDOUS MARINE
CONDITIONS MAY LAST WELL INTO THE WEEKEND, ESPECIALLY FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS AS SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED. HOWEVER, WINDS SHOULD
GRADUALLY LAY DOWN OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY AND
WEAKENS.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NCZ047-196-203>205.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NCZ094-194-
196.
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ195-
196-199-203>205.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR NCZ203-205.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR NCZ203.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR NCZ204-205.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ131-135-230-231.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ136-137.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ150-152-180-182.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ154-184-186.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ156-158-188.
DISCUSSION...RM/RCF/RJ
AVIATION...RTE/RM/RCF
MARINE...RM/RCF
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