510
FXUS62 KMHX 231919
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
319 PM EDT WED SEP 23 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THIS UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) LARGE AND SLOW MOVING COASTAL LOW TO IMPACT ENC BRINGING
HAZARDOUS COASTAL AND MARINE CONDITIONS.
2) HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN NEXT WEEK, BRINGING WARM TEMPERATURES
AND LIGHTER WINDS.
MARINE: GALE FORCE WINDS AND VERY DANGEROUS HIGH SEAS MID TO
LATE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
FORECAST IS PANNING OUT WELL BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS, AS
WINDS ARE GUSTING TO 30-40 MPH ALONG THE OUTER BANKS THIS
AFTERNOON, DECREASING TO 15-25 MPH INLAND. LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
IS SITTING ABOUT 250 MILES EAST OF CAPE HATTERAS, WITH THE
LATEST RAP ANALYSIS SHOWING A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 1011 MB. THE
LOW IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN AND SLOWLY SHIFT NORTH IN
THE COMING DAYS, BRINGING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF GUSTY N/NE
WINDS AND DANGEROUS COASTAL AND MARINE CONDITIONS. UNCERTAINTY
STILL EXISTS WITH THE EVENTUAL STRENGTH OF THE LOW AS IT SHIFTS
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AS WE APPROACH THIS WEEKEND. THIS
RESULT IN CONTINUED LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON THE END TIME
OF HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS AND COASTAL IMPACTS.
REGARDING SENSIBLE WEATHER, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COAST ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH
THURSDAY. FLOODING RISK REMAINS VERY LOW.
BY FAR, THE GREATEST IMPACTS WITH THIS COASTAL LOW ARE EXPECTED
FOR THE OUTER BANKS. THERE, A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO STRONG
NORTHEAST TO NORTH WINDS ARE DEVELOPING TODAY, AND THEN
POTENTIALLY LASTING AS SATURDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY IF A
WESTWARD AND SLOWER TREND HOLDS. PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE SHOWS A
STRONG SIGNAL FOR REACHING WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA WITH BOTH
SUSTAINED WINDS AND GUSTS, AND THE WIND ADVISORY FOR DARE
COUNTY, OCRACOKE, AND DOWNEAST CARTERET COUNTY REMAINS IN EFFECT.
FOR THE OBX FROM CAPE HATTERAS NORTH, PEAK GUSTS COULD TOP OUT
AROUND 50 MPH, AND THIS MAY LEAD TO SOME MINOR TREE AND POWER
LINE DAMAGE, ALONG WITH A RISK OF ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES. ROADS
ALONG THE OUTER BANKS MAY BE DANGEROUS TO TRAVERSE FOR HIGH
PROFILE VEHICLES, ESPECIALLY ALONG BRIDGES.
THE STRONG, AND LONGER DURATION, OF THE WINDS IS ALSO EXPECTED
TO SUPPORT AN INCREASED RISK OF COASTAL IMPACTS. BUILDING SEAS
AND INCREASING SWELL PERIODS WILL LEAD TO DANGEROUS SURF
CONDITIONS IN ADDITION TO A RISK OF BEACH EROSION, WAVE RUNUP,
OCEAN OVERWASH, AND MINOR TO MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING. WAVE
HEIGHTS IN THE SURF ZONE MAY REACH 10-15FT AT 10-13S FROM DUCK
TO CAPE HATTERAS, PEAKING ON THURSDAY. OF NOTE, THE HIGHEST WAVE
ENERGY APPEARS TO BE ALIGNED WITH THE EVENING HIGH TIDE
THURSDAY (WHICH HAPPENS TO BE THE HIGHEST OF THE TWO HIGH TIDES
THURSDAY). THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN IMPACTS TO VULNERABLE
PORTIONS OF THE OUTER BANKS NORTH OF OCRACOKE INLET WHERE DUNE
STRUCTURES ARE COMPROMISED OR NON-EXISTENT. AT THIS POINT THE
6-8FT+ WAVE HEIGHTS IN THE SURF ZONE MAY LAST INTO THIS WEEKEND.
A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING.
FOR SOUNDSIDE AREAS ADJACENT TO THE SOUTHERN PAMLICO SOUND, AND
THE NEARBY NEUSE RIVER, PERSISTENT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS MAY LEAD
TO MINOR COASTAL FLOODING LATER TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. ALREADY,
SOME GAUGES IN THE SOUTHERN PAMLICO SOUND ARE APPROACHING OR
HAVE REACHED MINOR FLOOD LEVELS. EVENTUALLY THE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO TURN MORE NORTHERLY, WHICH MAY THEN ALLOW THE
SOUNDSIDE COASTAL FLOODING RISK TO SHIFT TO PORTIONS OF OCRACOKE
AND HATTERAS VILLAGES.
PLEASE CONTINUE TO STAY TUNED FOR FUTURE UPDATES AS THIS IS A
COMPLEX AND LONGER-DURATION COASTAL LOW EVENT, WITH SUBTLE
CHANGES IN STRENGTH AND PATH OF THE LOW LEADING TO INCREASED, OR
DECREASED, COASTAL IMPACTS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
AS THE LOW SHIFTS TO NEW ENGLAND AND EVENTUALLY WEAKENS, SFC
HIGH AND RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS INTO ENC EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
WILL BRING LIGHTER WINDS, SUNSHINE, AND WARMER WEATHER BACK TO
THE REGION. OF NOTE, DESPITE THE WARMING WEATHER, LIGHT
NORTHERLY TO VARIABLE WINDS EARLY NEXT WEEK ARE FORECAST TO KEEP
DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S, MAKING FOR MORE COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS
DESPITE HIGHS WARMING UP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
CURRENTLY MVFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING AT ALL TAF SITES THIS
AFTERNOON AS CEILINGS PERSIST IN THE 1-2 KFT RANGE. BREEZY
CONDITIONS PICKING UP WITH GUSTS OUT OF THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST
AT 15 TO 20 KTS. CURRENTLY SOME LIGHT VCSH NEAR PGV AND ISO BUT
THE CORRIDOR BETWEEN OAJ AND EWN IS DRY AT THIS TIME.
NO REAL CHANGE IN FORECAST THINKING AS A COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED
TO VARY BETWEEN LOW MVFR TO IFR INTO TONIGHT AS LOW STRATUS
CONTINUES TO STREAM INTO ENC TODAY. A MORE PRONOUNCED PERIOD OF
IFR MAY PRESIDE FOR PGV AND KISO LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH IFR MORE QUESTIONABLE AT OAJ AND EWN.
REGARDLESS OF THE ARRIVAL OF IFR CONDITIONS, MVFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
OVERNIGHT EXPECT NORTHEASTERLY WIND GUSTS IN THE 15 TO 20 KT
RANGE AND RISING TO 20-25 KTS AFTER SUNRISE THURSDAY. BEWARE OF
CROSSWIND COMPONENT AT KEWN ON RNWY 14/32.
OUTLOOK: A COASTAL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT PERIODS OF
GUSTY WINDS, LOW CIGS, AND SHRA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
CIGS MAY EVENTUALLY RISE TO VFR LEVELS BY THE WEEKEND AS DRIER
AIR BEGINS TO WRAPAROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW.
MARINE
CONSOLIDATING AND DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST WILL RESULT IN DANGEROUS BOATING CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. FOR THE COASTAL WATERS, GALE FORCE NERLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED INTO FRIDAY WITH 20-30 KT WINDS AND 35-45 KT GUSTS
FORECAST FOR JUST ABOUT ALL OF THE WATERS OUTSIDE OF THE
PAMLICO/PUNGO/NEUSE/BAY RIVERS WHERE SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE
NOTED. SEAS OF 10-20FT WILL BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY FOR THE
WATERS FROM CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH THROUGH DUCK. THE NEARSHORE
COASTAL WATERS SHELTERED IN N AND NE FLOW SOUTH OF LOOKOUT MAY
ONLY HAVE SEAS PEAK AT 2-7FT. SWELL PERIODS WILL GRADUALLY
BUILD TO 10-13S DURING THIS TIME AS WELL. MARINE HEADLINES IN
EFFECT NICELY COVER THE EXPECTED HAZARDS, WITH NO CHANGES IN
THIS UPDATE. OF NOTE, THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE END TIME
OF SOME MARINE PRODUCTS, AND HOPEFULLY CONFIDENCE ON AN END TIME
INCREASES IN THE COMING DAY.
OUTLOOK: BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE, HAZARDOUS MARINE
CONDITIONS MAY LAST WELL INTO THE WEEKEND, ESPECIALLY FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS AS SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED. HOWEVER, WINDS SHOULD
GRADUALLY LAY DOWN OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY AND A
HIGH BUILDS IN.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NCZ047-196-203>205.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NCZ094-194-
196.
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ195-
196-199-203>205.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR NCZ203.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR NCZ203-205.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR NCZ204-205.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ131-135-154-184-186-
230-231.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ136-137.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ150-152-180-182.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ156-158-188.
DISCUSSION...RCF/RJ
AVIATION...RTE/RCF
MARINE...RCF/RJ
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