873
FXUS62 KMHX 240023
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
823 PM EDT WED SEP 23 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THIS UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) LARGE AND SLOW MOVING COASTAL LOW TO IMPACT ENC BRINGING
HAZARDOUS COASTAL AND MARINE CONDITIONS.
2) HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN NEXT WEEK, BRINGING WARM TEMPERATURES
AND LIGHTER WINDS.
MARINE: GALE FORCE WINDS AND VERY DANGEROUS HIGH SEAS MID TO
LATE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
8:00PM CURRENT CONDITIONS UPDATE - ALONG THE OUTER BANKS,
NORTHEAST WINDS ARE CURRENTLY GUSTING UP TO AROUND 35-50 MPH.
THE HIGHEST LAND-BASED WIND GUST MEASURED SO FAR HAS BEEN 48
MPH AT OREGON INLET. ELSEWHERE, GUSTS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN IN THE
20-35 MPH RANGE. ACCORDING TO THE NC DOT, MINOR OCEAN OVERWASH
HAS BEEN OBSERVED ALONG NC-12 ON PEA ISLAND. ELEVATED WATER
LEVELS HAVE ALSO BEEN NOTED FOR AREAS ADJACENT TO THE PAMLICO
SOUND, INCLUDING DOWNEAST CARTERET COUNTY AND ALONG THE SHORES
OF THE NEUSE RIVER.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: FORECAST IS PANNING OUT WELL BASED ON
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS, AS WINDS ARE GUSTING TO 30-40 MPH ALONG
THE OUTER BANKS THIS AFTERNOON, DECREASING TO 15-25 MPH INLAND.
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS SITTING ABOUT 250 MILES EAST OF CAPE
HATTERAS, WITH THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS SHOWING A MINIMUM
PRESSURE OF 1011 MB. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN
AND SLOWLY SHIFT NORTH IN THE COMING DAYS, BRINGING A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF GUSTY N/NE WINDS AND DANGEROUS COASTAL AND MARINE
CONDITIONS. UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS WITH THE EVENTUAL STRENGTH
OF THE LOW AS IT SHIFTS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AS WE APPROACH
THIS WEEKEND. THIS RESULT IN CONTINUED LOW TO MODERATE
CONFIDENCE ON THE END TIME OF HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS AND
COASTAL IMPACTS.
REGARDING SENSIBLE WEATHER, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COAST ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH
THURSDAY. FLOODING RISK REMAINS VERY LOW.
BY FAR, THE GREATEST IMPACTS WITH THIS COASTAL LOW ARE EXPECTED
FOR THE OUTER BANKS. THERE, A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO STRONG
NORTHEAST TO NORTH WINDS ARE DEVELOPING TODAY, AND THEN
POTENTIALLY LASTING AS SATURDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY IF A
WESTWARD AND SLOWER TREND HOLDS. PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE SHOWS A
STRONG SIGNAL FOR REACHING WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA WITH BOTH
SUSTAINED WINDS AND GUSTS, AND THE WIND ADVISORY FOR DARE
COUNTY, OCRACOKE, AND DOWNEAST CARTERET COUNTY REMAINS IN EFFECT.
FOR THE OBX FROM CAPE HATTERAS NORTH, PEAK GUSTS COULD TOP OUT
AROUND 50 MPH, AND THIS MAY LEAD TO SOME MINOR TREE AND POWER
LINE DAMAGE, ALONG WITH A RISK OF ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES. ROADS
ALONG THE OUTER BANKS MAY BE DANGEROUS TO TRAVERSE FOR HIGH
PROFILE VEHICLES, ESPECIALLY ALONG BRIDGES.
THE STRONG, AND LONGER DURATION, OF THE WINDS IS ALSO EXPECTED
TO SUPPORT AN INCREASED RISK OF COASTAL IMPACTS. BUILDING SEAS
AND INCREASING SWELL PERIODS WILL LEAD TO DANGEROUS SURF
CONDITIONS IN ADDITION TO A RISK OF BEACH EROSION, WAVE RUNUP,
OCEAN OVERWASH, AND MINOR TO MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING. WAVE
HEIGHTS IN THE SURF ZONE MAY REACH 10-15FT AT 10-13S FROM DUCK
TO CAPE HATTERAS, PEAKING ON THURSDAY. OF NOTE, THE HIGHEST WAVE
ENERGY APPEARS TO BE ALIGNED WITH THE EVENING HIGH TIDE
THURSDAY (WHICH HAPPENS TO BE THE HIGHEST OF THE TWO HIGH TIDES
THURSDAY). THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN IMPACTS TO VULNERABLE
PORTIONS OF THE OUTER BANKS NORTH OF OCRACOKE INLET WHERE DUNE
STRUCTURES ARE COMPROMISED OR NON-EXISTENT. AT THIS POINT THE
6-8FT+ WAVE HEIGHTS IN THE SURF ZONE MAY LAST INTO THIS WEEKEND.
A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING.
FOR SOUNDSIDE AREAS ADJACENT TO THE SOUTHERN PAMLICO SOUND, AND
THE NEARBY NEUSE RIVER, PERSISTENT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS MAY LEAD
TO MINOR COASTAL FLOODING LATER TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. ALREADY,
SOME GAUGES IN THE SOUTHERN PAMLICO SOUND ARE APPROACHING OR
HAVE REACHED MINOR FLOOD LEVELS. EVENTUALLY THE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO TURN MORE NORTHERLY, WHICH MAY THEN ALLOW THE
SOUNDSIDE COASTAL FLOODING RISK TO SHIFT TO PORTIONS OF OCRACOKE
AND HATTERAS VILLAGES.
PLEASE CONTINUE TO STAY TUNED FOR FUTURE UPDATES AS THIS IS A
COMPLEX AND LONGER-DURATION COASTAL LOW EVENT, WITH SUBTLE
CHANGES IN STRENGTH AND PATH OF THE LOW LEADING TO INCREASED, OR
DECREASED, COASTAL IMPACTS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
AS THE LOW SHIFTS TO NEW ENGLAND AND EVENTUALLY WEAKENS, SFC
HIGH AND RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS INTO ENC EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
WILL BRING LIGHTER WINDS, SUNSHINE, AND WARMER WEATHER BACK TO
THE REGION. OF NOTE, DESPITE THE WARMING WEATHER, LIGHT
NORTHERLY TO VARIABLE WINDS EARLY NEXT WEEK ARE FORECAST TO KEEP
DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S, MAKING FOR MORE COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS
DESPITE HIGHS WARMING UP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MODEST NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE ONGOING AT ALL TAF SITES THIS
EVENING AS A COASTAL LOW CONTINUES TO GET ORGANIZED OFFSHORE
EAST OF THE CAROLINAS. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
ENTIRETY OF THE 00Z TAF CYCLE, AND WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES, WITH
GUSTS OF 20-30KT EXPECTED. AT TIMES, CROSSWIND IMPACTS CAN BE
EXPECTED AT KEWN, ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. CIGS
ARE A MIX OF MVFR AND VFR AT THIS TIME, BUT PREDOMINANTLY MVFR
CIGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST
HALF OF THURSDAY. BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON, SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR
MOVING IN MAY ALLOW CIGS TO RISE TO VFR, ESPECIALLY AT KISO AND
KPGV.
AREAS OF VERY LIGHT RA OR DZ WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
NIGHT, BUT VIS SHOULD MOSTLY STAY AT, OR ABOVE, 6SM. THIS
ACTIVITY MAY CONTINUE INTO AT LEAST EARLY THURSDAY BEFORE DRIER
AIR BEGINS TO WORK IN, LOWERING THE COVERAGE OF RA/DZ.
OUTLOOK: A COASTAL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT PERIODS OF
GUSTY WINDS, LOW CIGS, AND SHRA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
CIGS MAY EVENTUALLY RISE TO VFR LEVELS BY THE WEEKEND AS DRIER
AIR BEGINS TO WRAPAROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW.
MARINE
8:00PM CURRENT CONDITIONS UPDATE - THE LATEST MARINE
OBSERVATIONS SHOW SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25-35KT ONGOING FOR MOST
OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS, INCLUDING THE INLAND RIVERS
AND SOUNDS IN THAT AREA, WITH GUSTS UP TO 40KT. ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN WATERS, SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15-25KT ARE ONGOING, WITH
GUSTS UP TO 35KT. THE PEAK MARINE WIND GUST MEASURED SO FAR IS
43KT AT THE JENNETTES PIER WXFLOW STATION. BUOYS ARE REPORTING
SEAS OF 12-15FT AT THIS TIME ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS NORTH OF
CAPE HATTERAS, WITH SEAS OF 8-9FT BEING REPORTED FOR THE
UNSHELTERED COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: CONSOLIDATING AND DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE
OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST WILL RESULT IN DANGEROUS BOATING
CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. FOR THE COASTAL WATERS, GALE
FORCE NERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED INTO FRIDAY WITH 20-30 KT WINDS
AND 35-45 KT GUSTS FORECAST FOR JUST ABOUT ALL OF THE WATERS
OUTSIDE OF THE PAMLICO/PUNGO/NEUSE/BAY RIVERS WHERE SCA
CONDITIONS WILL BE NOTED. SEAS OF 10-20FT WILL BE POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY FOR THE WATERS FROM CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH THROUGH DUCK.
THE NEARSHORE COASTAL WATERS SHELTERED IN N AND NE FLOW SOUTH OF
LOOKOUT MAY ONLY HAVE SEAS PEAK AT 2-7FT. SWELL PERIODS WILL
GRADUALLY BUILD TO 10-13S DURING THIS TIME AS WELL. MARINE
HEADLINES IN EFFECT NICELY COVER THE EXPECTED HAZARDS, WITH NO
CHANGES IN THIS UPDATE. OF NOTE, THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
THE END TIME OF SOME MARINE PRODUCTS, AND HOPEFULLY CONFIDENCE
ON AN END TIME INCREASES IN THE COMING DAY.
OUTLOOK: BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE, HAZARDOUS MARINE
CONDITIONS MAY LAST WELL INTO THE WEEKEND, ESPECIALLY FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS AS SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED. HOWEVER, WINDS SHOULD
GRADUALLY LAY DOWN OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY AND A
HIGH BUILDS IN.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NCZ047-196-203>205.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NCZ094-194-
196.
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 8 AM EDT THURSDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING FOR NCZ195-196-199-203>205.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR NCZ203.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR NCZ203-205.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR NCZ204-205.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ131-135-154-184-186-
230-231.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ136-137.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ150-152-180-182.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ156-158-188.
DISCUSSION...RM/RCF/RJ
AVIATION...RM/RCF
MARINE...RM/RCF/RJ
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