354
FXUS62 KMHX 241045
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
645 AM EDT THU SEP 24 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED THE AVIATION DISCUSSION.
KEY MESSAGES
1) LARGE AND SLOW MOVING COASTAL LOW TO IMPACT ENC THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK BRINGING HAZARDOUS COASTAL AND MARINE
CONDITIONS.
2) HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN NEXT WEEK, BRINGING WARM TEMPERATURES
AND LIGHTER WINDS.
MARINE: GALE FORCE WINDS AND VERY DANGEROUS SEAS PERSIST INTO
LATE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...LATEST OBS SHOW A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
CURRENTLY ABOUT 300 MILES EAST OF CAPE HATTERAS WITH SHOWERS
WRAPPING AROUND THIS LOW, MAINLY ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS. IN
ADDITION TO THIS, LATEST OBS SHOW WIDESPREAD NE'RLY WINDS
GUSTING TO 35-45 MPH ALONG THE OBX AND COAST WITH WINDS
DECREASING THE FURTHER INLAND YOU GO TO ABOUT 10-20 MPH.
OVERALL NOT MUCH CHANGE IN FORECAST THINKING AS A MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO ROUND THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
CURRENTLY LOCATED ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
THIS MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL ACT TO RAPIDLY DEEPEN THE
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW AS IT SLOWLY SHIFTS NORTH IN THE
COMING DAYS, BRINGING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF GUSTY N/NE WINDS AND
DANGEROUS COASTAL AND MARINE CONDITIONS TO ENC. UNCERTAINTY
STILL EXISTS WITH THE EVENTUAL STRENGTH AND EXACT TRACK OF THE
LOW AS IT SHIFTS OFF TOWARDS THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AS WE
APPROACH THIS WEEKEND. LATEST GUIDANCE IS STILL RATHER SPLIT
WITH THE CANADIAN AND GFS DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
FURTHER EAST THAN THE ICON, ECMWF AND ITS ENSEMBLES. THIS IS
MAINLY OWED TO THE FACT THE THE ECMWF AND ICON HAVE THE LOW
STARTING TO DEEPEN SLIGHTLY EARLIER AND THESE SOLUTIONS HAVE A
MORE CONSOLIDATED LOW TODAY WHILE THE GFS AND CANADIAN GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS A COMPLEX LOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY INTO TOMORROW
WITH THE NORTHERN LOBE BECOMING THE DOMINANT LOW OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS AS IT DEEPENS. WE LOOK TO GET SOME FURTHER CLARITY
TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS WE WILL SEE EXACTLY WHERE THIS LOW WILL
SET UP AS IT DEEPENS WHICH WILL GO A LONG WAY IN DETERMINING
EXACT DURATION OF IMPACTS FOR ENC. THIS RESULTS IN CONTINUED LOW
TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON THE END TIME OF HAZARDOUS MARINE
CONDITIONS AND COASTAL IMPACTS.
REGARDING SENSIBLE WEATHER, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COAST ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH
TODAY. FLOODING RISK REMAINS VERY LOW.
BY FAR, THE GREATEST IMPACTS WITH THIS COASTAL LOW REMAIN ACROSS
THE OUTER BANKS. HERE, CONTINUED MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHEAST
TO NORTH WINDS REMAIN IN PLACE, AND POTENTIALLY LAST INTO
SATURDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY IF THE ECMWF/ICON SOLUTIONS ARE
CORRECT. PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A STRONG
SIGNAL FOR REACHING WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA WITH BOTH SUSTAINED
WINDS AND GUSTS, AND THE WIND ADVISORY FOR DARE COUNTY,
OCRACOKE, AND DOWNEAST CARTERET COUNTY REMAINS IN EFFECT. FOR
THE OBX FROM CAPE HATTERAS NORTH, PEAK GUSTS COULD TOP OUT
AROUND 50 MPH, AND THIS MAY LEAD TO SOME MINOR TREE AND POWER
LINE DAMAGE, ALONG WITH A RISK OF ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES. ROADS
ALONG THE OUTER BANKS MAY BE DANGEROUS TO TRAVERSE FOR HIGH
PROFILE VEHICLES, ESPECIALLY ALONG BRIDGES.
THE STRONG, AND LONG DURATION, OF THE WINDS IS ALSO EXPECTED TO
SUPPORT AN INCREASED RISK OF COASTAL IMPACTS. SEAS ARE ALREADY
DANGEROUS, REACHING HEIGHTS OF ABOUT 13-16 FT AT 13-14 SECONDS
NORTH OF CAPE HATTERAS AND ALREADY UP TO AROUND 10 FT ACROSS THE
OUTER WATERS OF ONSLOW BAY AS OF THIS UPDATE. SEAS LIKELY PEAK
AROUND 15-20 FT TODAY INTO TONIGHT CREATING DANGEROUS SURF
CONDITIONS IN ADDITION TO A RISK OF BEACH EROSION, WAVE RUNUP,
OCEAN OVERWASH, AND MINOR TO MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING. OF
NOTE, THE HIGHEST WAVE ENERGY APPEARS TO BE ALIGNED WITH THE
EVENING HIGH TIDE TODAY (WHICH HAPPENS TO BE THE HIGHEST OF THE
TWO HIGH TIDES TODAY). THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN IMPACTS TO
VULNERABLE PORTIONS OF THE OUTER BANKS NORTH OF OCRACOKE INLET
WHERE DUNE STRUCTURES ARE COMPROMISED OR NON-EXISTENT. AT THIS
POINT THE 6-8FT+ WAVE HEIGHTS IN THE SURF ZONE MAY LAST INTO
THIS WEEKEND. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING.
FOR SOUNDSIDE AREAS ADJACENT TO THE SOUTHERN PAMLICO SOUND, AND
THE NEARBY NEUSE RIVER, PERSISTENT NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS
MAY LEAD TO MINOR COASTAL FLOODING THROUGH FRIDAY. ALREADY,
SOME GAUGES IN THE SOUTHERN PAMLICO SOUND ARE APPROACHING OR
HAVE REACHED MINOR FLOOD LEVELS. EVENTUALLY THE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO TURN MORE NORTHERLY, WHICH MAY THEN ALLOW THE
SOUNDSIDE COASTAL FLOODING RISK TO SHIFT TO PORTIONS OF OCRACOKE
AND HATTERAS VILLAGES.
PLEASE CONTINUE TO STAY TUNED FOR FUTURE UPDATES AS THIS IS A
COMPLEX AND LONGER-DURATION COASTAL LOW EVENT, WITH SUBTLE
CHANGES IN STRENGTH AND PATH OF THE LOW LEADING TO INCREASED, OR
DECREASED, COASTAL IMPACTS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
AS THE LOW SHIFTS TO NEW ENGLAND AND EVENTUALLY WEAKENS, SFC
HIGH AND RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS INTO ENC EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
WILL BRING LIGHTER WINDS, SUNSHINE, AND WARMER WEATHER BACK TO
THE REGION. OF NOTE, DESPITE THE WARMING WEATHER, LIGHT
NORTHERLY TO VARIABLE WINDS EARLY NEXT WEEK ARE FORECAST TO KEEP
DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S, MAKING FOR MORE COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS
DESPITE HIGHS WARMING UP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
BIGGEST CHALLENGE THIS MORNING HAS BEEN THE MORE WIDESPREAD IFR
CEILINGS ACROSS ENC. FOR NOW HAVE ADDED IN IFR CEILINGS AT ALL
TAF SITES AND SURROUNDING AREAS UNTIL 13/14Z. AT WHICH POINT
BREEZY NE'RLY WINDS ARE FORECAST TO ALLOW THIS LOW CLOUD DECK TO
LIFT TO MVFR HEIGHTS AND REMAIN AT MVFR HEIGHTS INTO THIS
AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE, MODEST NORTHEASTERLY WINDS CONTINUE AT ALL TAF SITES
THIS MORNING AS A COASTAL LOW CONTINUES TO GET ORGANIZED
OFFSHORE EAST OF THE CAROLINAS. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY WITH WINDS FORECAST TO EASE TONIGHT AT
LEAST ACROSS INLAND AREAS AS THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION SETS UP
CAPPING WIND POTENTIAL. THE ONE CAVEAT TO THIS WILL BE ACROSS
THE OBX WHERE GUSTY WINDS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO FRI MORNING
GIVEN THE AREAS PROXIMITY TO THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW. WINDS WILL
BE GUSTY AT TIMES, WITH GUSTS OF 20-30KT EXPECTED. AT TIMES,
CROSSWIND IMPACTS CAN BE EXPECTED AT KEWN, ESPECIALLY DURING THE
DAY TODAY. CIGS ARE A MIX OF MVFR AND IFR AT THIS TIME, BUT
PREDOMINANTLY MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER ALL OF ENC
LATER THIS MORNING. BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON, SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR
MOVING IN MAY ALLOW CIGS TO RISE TO VFR, ESPECIALLY AT KISO AND
KPGV. ADDITIONAL IMPROVEMENTS TO CIGS ARE POSSIBLE FURTHER EAST
ACROSS EWN/OAJ TONIGHT WITH MUCH OF THE AREA POTENTIALLY SEEING
VFR CONDITIONS RETURN BY EARLY FRI MORNING GIVEN CURRENT TRENDS.
AREAS OF VERY LIGHT RA OR DZ WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING, BUT
VIS SHOULD MOSTLY STAY AT, OR ABOVE, 5SM. DRIER AIR EVENTUALLY
BEGINS TO WORK IN LATER THIS AFTERNOON, LOWERING THE COVERAGE OF
RA/DZ INTO TONIGHT WITH MUCH OF THE AREA OUTSIDE OF THE OBX
REMAINING DRY TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK: THE COASTAL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT PERIODS OF
GUSTY WINDS, LOW CIGS, AND SHRA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
MAINLY ALONG THE OBX. CIGS ARE FORECAST TO EVENTUALLY RISE TO
VFR LEVELS EVERYWHERE ACROSS ENC BY THE WEEKEND AS DRIER AIR
BEGINS TO WRAPAROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW KEEPING
SKIES PARTLY CLOUDY. AS THIS LOW MOVES AWAY FRI INTO SATURDAY
WINDS ARE ALSO FORECAST TO EASE ACROSS ENC AS WELL.
MARINE
DANGEROUS CONDITIONS REMAIN ACROSS ENC THIS MORNING WITH
WIDESPREAD GALE FORCE WINDS BOTH SUSTAINED AND GUSTS NOTED
ACROSS OUR WATERS AS A SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING LOW CURRENTLY ABOUT
300 MILES TO THE EAST OF CAPE HATTERAS BEGINS TO DEEPEN. IN
ADDITION TO THIS, SEAS ARE CURRENTLY AROUND 13-16 FT NORTH OF
HATTERAS AT 13/14 SECOND PERIODS AND 8-12 FT AT 10/11 SECOND
PERIODS SOUTH OF HATTERAS.
THESE DANGEROUS BOATING CONDITIONS LOOK TO CONTINUE INTO AT
LEAST FRIDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW BEGINS TO RAPIDLY DEEPEN
LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT AND SLOWLY SHIFT N'WARDS TOWARDS THE
NORTHEASTERN CONUS. AS A RESULT, GALE FORCE NERLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO FRIDAY ACROSS MOST OF OUR COASTAL AND
INLAND WATERS WITH 20-30 KT WINDS AND 35-45 KT GUSTS FORECAST
FOR JUST ABOUT ALL OF THE WATERS OUTSIDE OF THE
PAMLICO/PUNGO/NEUSE/BAY RIVERS WHERE SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE
NOTED. SEAS OF 10-20FT WILL BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY FOR THE
WATERS FROM CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH THROUGH DUCK. THE NEARSHORE
COASTAL WATERS SHELTERED IN N AND NE FLOW SOUTH OF LOOKOUT MAY
ONLY HAVE SEAS PEAK AT 2-7FT. SWELL PERIODS WILL REMAIN AROUND
10-13 SECONDS INTO THIS WEEKEND AS WELL. MARINE HEADLINES IN
EFFECT NICELY COVER THE EXPECTED HAZARDS, WITH ONLY MINOR TWEAKS
TO GALE END TIMES ON THIS UPDATE. OF NOTE, THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON THE END TIME OF THE GALE PRODUCTS, AND HOPEFULLY
CONFIDENCE ON AN END TIME INCREASES TODAY.
OUTLOOK: BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE, HAZARDOUS MARINE
CONDITIONS MAY LAST WELL INTO THE WEEKEND, ESPECIALLY FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS AS SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED. HOWEVER, WINDS SHOULD
GRADUALLY LAY DOWN OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY AND A
HIGH BUILDS IN WITH MORE BENIGN BOATING CONDITIONS FORECAST BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NCZ047-196-203>205.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NCZ094-194-
196.
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NCZ195-196-
199-203>205.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR NCZ203.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR NCZ203-205.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR NCZ204-205.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ131-135-154-184-230-
231.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ136-137.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ150-152-180-182.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ156-158-188.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ186.
DISCUSSION...RCF
AVIATION...RCF
MARINE...RCF
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