008
FXUS62 KMHX 241820
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
220 PM EDT THU SEP 24 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. NOR'EASTER CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE
AREA.
KEY MESSAGES
1) LARGE AND SLOW MOVING NOR'EASTER WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT ENC
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK BRINGING HAZARDOUS COASTAL AND
MARINE CONDITIONS.
2) HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN NEXT WEEK, BRINGING WARM TEMPERATURES
AND LIGHTER WINDS.
MARINE: GALE FORCE WINDS AND VERY DANGEROUS SEAS PERSIST INTO
LATE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWS STRENGTHENING LOW
PRESSURE CURRENTLY ABOUT 300 MILES ENE OF CAPE HATTERAS WITH
SHOWERS WRAPPING AROUND THIS LOW, MAINLY ACROSS THE OFFSHORE
WATERS. OVERALL VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN FORECAST THINKING AS A
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO ROUND THE BASE OF AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY LOCATED ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD
TONIGHT. THIS MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL ACT TO RAPIDLY DEEPEN
THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW AS IT SLOWLY SHIFTS NORTH IN THE
COMING DAYS, BRINGING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF GUSTY N/NE WINDS AND
DANGEROUS COASTAL AND MARINE CONDITIONS TO ENC.
SOME UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS WITH THE EVENTUAL STRENGTH AND
EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW AS IT SHIFTS OFF TOWARDS THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST AS WE APPROACH THIS WEEKEND. IF THE SLOWER AND STRONGER
GUIDANCE WERE TO VERIFY, STRONGER WINDS MAY LINGER ALONG THE
COAST A BIT LONGER PROLONGING SOME COASTAL IMPACTS. REGARDING
SENSIBLE WEATHER, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG THE COAST ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THROUGH TONIGHT,
WITH AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE INLAND. FLOODING RISK REMAINS
VERY LOW.
BY FAR, THE GREATEST IMPACTS WITH THIS NOR'EASTER REMAIN ACROSS
THE OUTER BANKS. HERE, CONTINUED MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHEAST
TO NORTH WINDS REMAIN IN PLACE, AND POTENTIALLY LAST INTO
SATURDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY IF THE ECMWF/ICON SOLUTIONS ARE
CORRECT. WIND ADVISORIES CONTINUE FOR DARE COUNTY, OCRACOKE,
AND DOWNEAST CARTERET COUNTY. FOR THE OBX FROM CAPE HATTERAS
NORTH, PEAK GUSTS COULD TOP OUT AROUND 50 MPH, AND THIS MAY LEAD
TO SOME MINOR TREE AND POWER LINE DAMAGE, ALONG WITH A RISK OF
ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES. ROADS ALONG THE OUTER BANKS MAY BE
DANGEROUS TO TRAVERSE FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES, ESPECIALLY
ALONG BRIDGES. NC-12 FROM THE BASNIGHT BRIDGE TO RODANTHE
REMAINS CLOSED DUE TO OCEAN OVERWASH.
THE STRONG, AND LONG DURATION, OF THE WINDS IS ALSO EXPECTED TO
SUPPORT AN INCREASED RISK OF COASTAL IMPACTS. SEAS ARE ALREADY
DANGEROUS, REACHING HEIGHTS OF ABOUT 13-18 FT AT 13-14 SECONDS
NORTH OF CAPE HATTERAS AND 8-12 FT SOUTH. SEAS LIKELY PEAK
AROUND 15-20 FT INTO TONIGHT CREATING DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS
IN ADDITION TO A RISK OF BEACH EROSION, WAVE RUNUP, OCEAN
OVERWASH, AND MINOR TO MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING. OF NOTE, THE
HIGHEST WAVE ENERGY APPEARS TO BE ALIGNED WITH THE EVENING HIGH
TIDE TODAY (WHICH HAPPENS TO BE THE HIGHEST OF THE TWO HIGH
TIDES TODAY). THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN IMPACTS TO VULNERABLE
PORTIONS OF THE OUTER BANKS NORTH OF OCRACOKE INLET WHERE DUNE
STRUCTURES ARE COMPROMISED OR NON-EXISTENT. AT THIS POINT THE
6-8FT+ WAVE HEIGHTS IN THE SURF ZONE MAY LAST INTO THIS WEEKEND.
A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING.
FOR SOUNDSIDE AREAS ADJACENT TO THE SOUTHERN PAMLICO SOUND, AND
THE NEARBY NEUSE RIVER, PERSISTENT NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS
MAY LEAD TO MINOR COASTAL FLOODING THROUGH FRIDAY. ALREADY,
SOME GAUGES IN THE SOUTHERN PAMLICO SOUND ARE APPROACHING OR
HAVE REACHED MINOR FLOOD LEVELS. HAVE HAD A FEW REPORTS OF WATER
LEVELS AROUND 1 FT ABOVE NORMAL. EVENTUALLY THE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO TURN MORE NORTHERLY, WHICH MAY THEN ALLOW THE
SOUNDSIDE COASTAL FLOODING RISK TO SHIFT TO PORTIONS OF OCRACOKE
AND HATTERAS VILLAGES.
PLEASE CONTINUE TO STAY TUNED FOR FUTURE UPDATES AS THIS IS A
COMPLEX AND LONGER-DURATION NOR'EASTER, WITH SUBTLE CHANGES IN
STRENGTH AND PATH OF THE LOW LEADING TO INCREASED, OR DECREASED,
COASTAL IMPACTS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
AS THE LOW SHIFTS TO NEW ENGLAND AND EVENTUALLY WEAKENS, SFC
HIGH AND RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS INTO ENC EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
WILL BRING LIGHTER WINDS, SUNSHINE, AND WARMER WEATHER BACK TO
THE REGION. OF NOTE, DESPITE THE WARMING WEATHER, LIGHT
NORTHERLY TO VARIABLE WINDS EARLY NEXT WEEK ARE FORECAST TO KEEP
DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S, MAKING FOR MORE COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS
DESPITE HIGHS WARMING UP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON
WITH AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND GUSTY WINDS. MVFR WILL LIKELY PERSIST
THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT WITH CIGS GRADUALLY IMPROVING FROM WEST
TO EAST LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRI MORNING. DRIER AIR EVENTUALLY
BEGINS TO WORK IN TONIGHT, LOWERING THE COVERAGE OF RA/DZ INTO
TONIGHT WITH MUCH OF THE AREA OUTSIDE OF THE OBX REMAINING DRY
TONIGHT. GUSTY NNE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD,
SLOWLY DIMINISHING LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. AT TIMES, CROSSWIND
IMPACTS CAN BE EXPECTED AT KEWN THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK: THE COASTAL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT PERIODS OF
GUSTY WINDS, LOW CIGS, AND SHRA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
MAINLY ALONG THE OBX. CIGS ARE FORECAST TO EVENTUALLY RISE TO
VFR LEVELS EVERYWHERE ACROSS ENC BY THE WEEKEND AS DRIER AIR
BEGINS TO WRAPAROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW KEEPING
SKIES PARTLY CLOUDY. AS THIS LOW MOVES AWAY FRI INTO SATURDAY
WINDS ARE ALSO FORECAST TO EASE ACROSS ENC AS WELL.
MARINE
DANGEROUS CONDITIONS ONGOING ACROSS THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON
WITH WIDESPREAD GALE FORCE WINDS BOTH SUSTAINED AND GUSTS WITH
STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE WELL OFFSHORE. LATEST OBS SHOW NE
WINDS 20-25 KT ACROSS THE INLAND RIVERS AND 25-35 KT GUSTING
35-40 KT ACROSS THE SOUNDS AND COASTAL WATERS...WITH SEAS 10-20
FT NORTH OF OCRACOKE AND 8-15 FT SOUTH. THESE DANGEROUS BOATING
CONDITIONS LOOK TO CONTINUE INTO AT LEAST FRIDAY AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOW CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY DEEPEN TONIGHT AND
SLOWLY SHIFT N'WARDS TOWARDS THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS. AS A
RESULT, GALE FORCE NERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO
FRIDAY ACROSS MOST OF OUR COASTAL AND INLAND WATERS WITH 20-30
KT WINDS AND 35-45 KT GUSTS FORECAST FOR JUST ABOUT ALL OF THE
WATERS OUTSIDE OF THE PAMLICO/PUNGO/NEUSE/BAY RIVERS WHERE SCA
CONDITIONS WILL BE NOTED. SEAS OF 10-20FT WILL BE POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY FOR THE WATERS FROM CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH THROUGH DUCK.
SWELL PERIODS WILL REMAIN AROUND 10-13 SECONDS INTO THIS
WEEKEND AS WELL. OF NOTE, THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE
END TIME OF THE GALE PRODUCTS AND MAY NEED TO EVENTUALLY BE
EXTENDED.
OUTLOOK: BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE, HAZARDOUS MARINE
CONDITIONS MAY LAST WELL INTO THE WEEKEND, ESPECIALLY FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS AS SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED. HOWEVER, WINDS SHOULD
GRADUALLY LAY DOWN OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY AND A
HIGH BUILDS IN WITH MORE BENIGN BOATING CONDITIONS FORECAST BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NCZ047-196-203>205.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NCZ094-194-
196.
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ195-
196-199-203>205.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR NCZ203.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR NCZ203-205.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR NCZ204-205.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ131-135-154-184-230-
231.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ136-137.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ150-152-180-182.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ156-158-188.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ186.
DISCUSSION...CQD/RCF
AVIATION...CQD/RCF
MARINE...CQD/RCF
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