604
FXUS62 KMHX 250646
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
246 AM EDT FRI SEP 25 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES SINCE THE PREVIOUS UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) LARGE AND SLOW MOVING NOR'EASTER WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT ENC
THROUGH FRIDAY BRINGING HAZARDOUS COASTAL AND MARINE
CONDITIONS TO THE AREA WITH GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS OVER
THIS WEEKEND.
2) HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN NEXT WEEK, BRINGING WARM TEMPERATURES
AND LIGHTER WINDS.
MARINE: GALE FORCE WINDS AND VERY DANGEROUS SEAS PERSIST THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH DANGEROUS SEAS POTENTIALLY STICKING AROUND UNTIL
SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A LARGE AND
STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY AROUND 300 MILES DUE
EAST OF CAPE HATTERAS AS OF THIS MORNINGS UPDATE WITH SHOWERS
WRAPPING AROUND THIS LOW, MAINLY ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS.
OVERALL, VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN FORECAST THINKING AS A MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO ROUND THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH CURRENTLY LOCATED ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD THIS MORNING.
THIS MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL ACT TO RAPIDLY DEEPEN THE
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW AS IT SLOWLY SHIFTS NORTH IN THE
COMING DAYS, BRINGING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF GUSTY N/NE WINDS AND
DANGEROUS COASTAL AND MARINE CONDITIONS TO ENC.
THERE CONTINUES TO BE FURTHER CLARITY WITH THIS NOR'EASTER'S
EVENTUAL TRACK WITH MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE SLOWLY COMING INTO
AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF SOLUTION OF A SLIGHTLY SLOWER N'WARD
TRACK AND STRONG LOW STALLING JUST SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND THIS
WEEKEND. AS A RESULT, STRONGER WINDS ARE FORECAST TO LINGER
ALONG THE COAST, ESPECIALLY NORTH OF HATTERAS PROLONGING SOME
COASTAL IMPACTS. REGARDING SENSIBLE WEATHER, ISOLATED SHOWERS
MAY CONTINUE ALONG THE OBX TODAY INTO TONIGHT BUT OTHERWISE THE
BIGGEST CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE THE ONGOING WIND
AND COASTAL IMPACTS.
BY FAR, THE GREATEST IMPACTS WITH THIS NOR'EASTER REMAIN ACROSS
THE OUTER BANKS. HERE, CONTINUED MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHEAST
TO NORTH WINDS REMAIN IN PLACE, AND POTENTIALLY LAST INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. WIND ADVISORIES HAVE ENDED ACROSS MAINLAND
DARE COUNTY, OCRACOKE, AND EAST CARTERET, BUT REMAIN IN EFFECT
ACROSS THE OBX FROM HATTERAS ISLAND NORTH INTO THIS EVENING AS
GUSTS UP TO 45-50 MPH WON'T BE OUT OF THE QUESTION TODAY AS THE
NOR'EASTER SLOWLY PULLS AWAY FROM ENC. THIS MAY LEAD TO SOME
MINOR TREE AND POWER LINE DAMAGE, ALONG WITH A RISK OF ISOLATED
POWER OUTAGES. ROADS ALONG THE OUTER BANKS MAY BE DANGEROUS TO
TRAVERSE FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES, ESPECIALLY ALONG BRIDGES.
NC-12 FROM THE BASNIGHT BRIDGE TO RODANTHE REMAINS CLOSED DUE TO
OCEAN OVERWASH.
THE STRONG, AND LONG DURATION, OF THE WINDS IS ALSO EXPECTED TO
SUPPORT AN INCREASED RISK OF COASTAL IMPACTS. SEAS ARE ALREADY
DANGEROUS, REACHING HEIGHTS OF ABOUT 13-19 FT AT 13-14 SECONDS
NORTH OF CAPE HATTERAS AND 8-12 FT SOUTH. SEAS HAVE LIKELY
PEAKED THIS MORNING, BUT DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS IN ADDITION
TO A RISK OF BEACH EROSION, WAVE RUNUP, OCEAN OVERWASH, AND
MINOR TO MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT AS
SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO LOWER. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN IMPACTS
TO VULNERABLE PORTIONS OF THE OUTER BANKS NORTH OF OCRACOKE
INLET WHERE DUNE STRUCTURES ARE COMPROMISED OR NON- EXISTENT. AT
THIS POINT THE 6-8FT+ WAVE HEIGHTS IN THE SURF ZONE MAY LAST
INTO THIS WEEKEND. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.
FOR SOUNDSIDE AREAS ADJACENT TO THE SOUTHERN PAMLICO SOUND, AND
THE NEARBY NEUSE RIVER, PERSISTENT NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO LEAD TO MINOR COASTAL FLOODING INTO THIS
MORNING BEFORE WATER LEVELS BEGIN TO GRADUALLY RECEDE. SOME
GAUGES IN THE SOUTHERN PAMLICO SOUND HAVE ALREADY APPROACHED OR
HAVE REACHED MINOR FLOOD LEVELS AND CONTINUE TO DO SO THIS
MORNING. WITH WINDS BECOMING MORE NORTHERLY THIS MORNING, THIS
IS FORECAST TO ALLOW THE SOUNDSIDE COASTAL FLOODING RISK TO
SHIFT TO PORTIONS OF OCRACOKE AND HATTERAS VILLAGES.
PLEASE CONTINUE TO STAY TUNED FOR FUTURE UPDATES AS THIS IS A
COMPLEX AND LONGER-DURATION NOR'EASTER, WITH SUBTLE CHANGES IN
STRENGTH AND PATH OF THE LOW LEADING TO INCREASED, OR DECREASED,
COASTAL IMPACTS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
AS THE LOW SHIFTS TO NEW ENGLAND AND EVENTUALLY WEAKENS, SFC
HIGH AND RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS INTO ENC EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
WILL BRING LIGHTER WINDS, SUNSHINE, AND WARMER WEATHER BACK TO
THE REGION. OF NOTE, DESPITE THE WARMING WEATHER, DEWPOINTS ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN IN THE 50S INTO MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK, MAKING
FOR MORE COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS DESPITE HIGHS WARMING UP INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 80S. SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEWPOINTS INTO THE 60S
LOOK TO RETURN CLOSER TO THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
A MIX OF MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY NOTED ACROSS ENC THIS
MORNING WITH MUCH OF THE MVFR CEILINGS NOTED ALONG AND EAST OF
HWY 17 THIS MORNING. WITH DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO THE REGION
TODAY EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY SPREAD EAST
RESULTING IN ALL TAF SITES SEEING IMPROVING CONDITIONS THIS
MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS THEN FORECAST ACROSS PGV/ISO/EWN/OAJ
AND ADJACENT AREAS BY 10Z. THE ONE AREA MOST LIKELY TO REMAIN
UNDER MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE THE OBX AS THIS AREA IS CLOSEST TO
THE NOR'EASTER OFFSHORE AND THUS BEST MOISTURE. AS WE GET INTO
FRIDAY EXPECT DRY AIR TO CONTINUE TO WORK ITS WAY INTO ENC AS
THE AFOREMENTIONED NOR'EASTER BEGINS TO PULL AWAY FROM ENC
ALLOWING CIGS TO RAISE TO VFR ACROSS ALL OF ENC BY THIS
AFTERNOON. SOME ISO SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE OBX AS WELL
BUT TAF SITES SHOULD REMAIN DRY TODAY. SIGNIFICANT REDUCTIONS
TO VIS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED.
THE GRADIENT AROUND THE DEVELOPING NOR'EASTER WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT MODERATE, AND GUSTY, NORTHERLY WINDS TODAY BEFORE WINDS
FINALLY EASE TONIGHT. GUSTS OF 20-25KT WILL BE COMMON FOR MOST
TAF SITES, WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING KMRH WHERE GUSTS TO 30KT
WILL BE COMMON.
OUTLOOK: CIGS ARE FORECAST TO EVENTUALLY RISE TO VFR LEVELS
EVERYWHERE ACROSS ENC BY THE WEEKEND AS DRIER AIR BEGINS TO
WRAPAROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE NOR'EASTER AND IT
CONTINUES TO PUSH FURTHER NORTH AWAY FROM ENC. THIS WILL KEEP
DRY CONDITIONS AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS ALL OF ENC INTO
NEXT WEEK. AS THIS LOW MOVES AWAY WINDS ARE ALSO FORECAST TO
EASE ACROSS ENC AS WELL AND REMAIN LIGHT INTO NEXT WEEK.
MARINE
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE FORECAST AS DANGEROUS MARINE CONDITIONS
CONTINUE TO REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS ENC THIS MORNING AS A
NOR'EASTER LOCATED OFF THE COAST HAS BEGUN TO DEEPEN AND PUSH
N'WARDS. WIDESPREAD GALE FORCE WINDS ARE NOTED ACROSS MOST OF
OUR WATERS THIS MORNING. LATEST OBS SHOW NE WINDS 15-20 KT
ACROSS THE INLAND RIVERS AND 20-30 KT GUSTING 35-40 KT ACROSS
THE SOUNDS AND COASTAL WATERS WITH SEAS 10-20 FT NORTH OF
OCRACOKE AND 8-12 FT SOUTH. THESE DANGEROUS BOATING CONDITIONS
LOOK TO CONTINUE INTO TODAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED NOR'EASTER
CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY DEEPEN AND SLOWLY SHIFT N'WARDS TOWARDS
THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS. GALE FORCE N'RLY WINDS DO LOOK TO
CONTINUE TODAY ACROSS MOST OF OUR WATERS, BUT WILL NOTE WITH
THIS SYSTEM TRACKING NORTH AND PULLING AWAY FROM ENC, EXPECT
GALE FORCE CONDITIONS TO WANE ACROSS OUR INLAND WATERS AND
SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS BY THIS EVENING WITH ANY ONGOING GALES
BEING REPLACED BY SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES. SO WHILE WE EXPECT THE
MORNING TO START OUT WITH 20-30 KT N'RLY WINDS WITH GUSTS UP
TOWARDS 35-40 KTS EVERYWHERE BUT THE PAMLICO/PUNGO/NEUSE/BAY
RIVERS WHERE SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE NOTED, WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
EASE DOWN TO 15-20 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25-30 KTS FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH THE LAST OF THE GALES LIKELY
ENDING BY SAT MORNING. SEAS OF 10-20FT WILL BE POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY FOR THE WATERS FROM CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH THROUGH DUCK.
SWELL PERIODS WILL REMAIN AROUND 10-13 SECONDS INTO THIS WEEKEND
AS WELL.
OUTLOOK: BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE, HAZARDOUS MARINE
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO LAST INTO THE WEEKEND, ESPECIALLY
FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AS SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED. HOWEVER, WINDS
SHOULD GRADUALLY LAY DOWN OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY
AND A HIGH BUILDS IN WITH MORE BENIGN BOATING CONDITIONS
FORECAST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THESE BENIGN BOATING CONDITIONS
REMAIN IN PLACE INTO MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ094-
194-196.
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH
THIS EVENING FOR NCZ196-199-203>205.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ203-205.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ203.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR NCZ203-205.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ204-
205.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ131-135-230-
231.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ136-
137.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ150-152-180-182.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ154-184.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR AMZ156-158-188.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ186.
DISCUSSION...RCF
AVIATION...RCF
MARINE...RCF
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