877
FXUS62 KMHX 251040
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
640 AM EDT FRI SEP 25 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ADJUSTED TIMING OF MARINE HEADLINES FOR INLAND WATERS AND
SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS. AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
1) LARGE AND SLOW MOVING NOR'EASTER WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT ENC
THROUGH FRIDAY BRINGING HAZARDOUS COASTAL AND MARINE
CONDITIONS TO THE AREA WITH GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS OVER
THIS WEEKEND.
2) HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN NEXT WEEK, BRINGING WARM TEMPERATURES
AND LIGHTER WINDS.
MARINE: GALE FORCE WINDS AND VERY DANGEROUS SEAS PERSIST THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH DANGEROUS SEAS POTENTIALLY STICKING AROUND UNTIL
SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A LARGE AND
STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY AROUND 300 MILES DUE
EAST OF CAPE HATTERAS AS OF THIS MORNINGS UPDATE WITH SHOWERS
WRAPPING AROUND THIS LOW, MAINLY ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS.
OVERALL, VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN FORECAST THINKING AS A MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO ROUND THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH CURRENTLY LOCATED ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD THIS MORNING.
THIS MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL ACT TO RAPIDLY DEEPEN THE
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW AS IT SLOWLY SHIFTS NORTH IN THE
COMING DAYS, BRINGING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF GUSTY N/NE WINDS AND
DANGEROUS COASTAL AND MARINE CONDITIONS TO ENC.
THERE CONTINUES TO BE FURTHER CLARITY WITH THIS NOR'EASTER'S
EVENTUAL TRACK WITH MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE SLOWLY COMING INTO
AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF SOLUTION OF A SLIGHTLY SLOWER N'WARD
TRACK AND STRONG LOW STALLING JUST SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND THIS
WEEKEND. AS A RESULT, STRONGER WINDS ARE FORECAST TO LINGER
ALONG THE COAST, ESPECIALLY NORTH OF HATTERAS PROLONGING SOME
COASTAL IMPACTS. REGARDING SENSIBLE WEATHER, ISOLATED SHOWERS
MAY CONTINUE ALONG THE OBX TODAY INTO TONIGHT BUT OTHERWISE THE
BIGGEST CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE THE ONGOING WIND
AND COASTAL IMPACTS.
BY FAR, THE GREATEST IMPACTS WITH THIS NOR'EASTER REMAIN ACROSS
THE OUTER BANKS. HERE, CONTINUED MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHEAST
TO NORTH WINDS REMAIN IN PLACE, AND POTENTIALLY LAST INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. WIND ADVISORIES HAVE ENDED ACROSS MAINLAND
DARE COUNTY, OCRACOKE, AND EAST CARTERET, BUT REMAIN IN EFFECT
ACROSS THE OBX FROM HATTERAS ISLAND NORTH INTO THIS EVENING AS
GUSTS UP TO 45-50 MPH WON'T BE OUT OF THE QUESTION TODAY AS THE
NOR'EASTER SLOWLY PULLS AWAY FROM ENC. THIS MAY LEAD TO SOME
MINOR TREE AND POWER LINE DAMAGE, ALONG WITH A RISK OF ISOLATED
POWER OUTAGES. ROADS ALONG THE OUTER BANKS MAY BE DANGEROUS TO
TRAVERSE FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES, ESPECIALLY ALONG BRIDGES.
NC-12 FROM THE BASNIGHT BRIDGE TO RODANTHE REMAINS CLOSED DUE TO
OCEAN OVERWASH.
THE STRONG, AND LONG DURATION, OF THE WINDS IS ALSO EXPECTED TO
SUPPORT AN INCREASED RISK OF COASTAL IMPACTS. SEAS ARE ALREADY
DANGEROUS, REACHING HEIGHTS OF ABOUT 13-19 FT AT 13-14 SECONDS
NORTH OF CAPE HATTERAS AND 8-12 FT SOUTH. SEAS HAVE LIKELY
PEAKED THIS MORNING, BUT DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS IN ADDITION
TO A RISK OF BEACH EROSION, WAVE RUNUP, OCEAN OVERWASH, AND
MINOR TO MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT AS
SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO LOWER. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN IMPACTS
TO VULNERABLE PORTIONS OF THE OUTER BANKS NORTH OF OCRACOKE
INLET WHERE DUNE STRUCTURES ARE COMPROMISED OR NON- EXISTENT. AT
THIS POINT THE 6-8FT+ WAVE HEIGHTS IN THE SURF ZONE MAY LAST
INTO THIS WEEKEND. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.
FOR SOUNDSIDE AREAS ADJACENT TO THE SOUTHERN PAMLICO SOUND, AND
THE NEARBY NEUSE RIVER, PERSISTENT NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO LEAD TO MINOR COASTAL FLOODING INTO THIS
MORNING BEFORE WATER LEVELS BEGIN TO GRADUALLY RECEDE. SOME
GAUGES IN THE SOUTHERN PAMLICO SOUND HAVE ALREADY APPROACHED OR
HAVE REACHED MINOR FLOOD LEVELS AND CONTINUE TO DO SO THIS
MORNING. WITH WINDS BECOMING MORE NORTHERLY THIS MORNING, THIS
IS FORECAST TO ALLOW THE SOUNDSIDE COASTAL FLOODING RISK TO
SHIFT TO PORTIONS OF OCRACOKE AND HATTERAS VILLAGES.
PLEASE CONTINUE TO STAY TUNED FOR FUTURE UPDATES AS THIS IS A
COMPLEX AND LONGER-DURATION NOR'EASTER, WITH SUBTLE CHANGES IN
STRENGTH AND PATH OF THE LOW LEADING TO INCREASED, OR DECREASED,
COASTAL IMPACTS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
AS THE LOW SHIFTS TO NEW ENGLAND AND EVENTUALLY WEAKENS, SFC
HIGH AND RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS INTO ENC EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
WILL BRING LIGHTER WINDS, SUNSHINE, AND WARMER WEATHER BACK TO
THE REGION. OF NOTE, DESPITE THE WARMING WEATHER, DEWPOINTS ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN IN THE 50S INTO MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK, MAKING
FOR MORE COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS DESPITE HIGHS WARMING UP INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 80S. SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEWPOINTS INTO THE 60S
LOOK TO RETURN CLOSER TO THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
A MIX OF MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY NOTED ACROSS ENC THIS
MORNING WITH MUCH OF THE MVFR CEILINGS NOTED ALONG AND EAST OF
THE EWN TAF SITE AND THE OBX. WITH DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO THE
REGION TODAY EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY
SPREAD EAST RESULTING IN ALL TAF SITES SEEING IMPROVING
CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS THEN FORECAST ACROSS
PGV/ISO/EWN/OAJ AND ADJACENT AREAS BY 14-16Z. THE ONE AREA MOST
LIKELY TO REMAIN UNDER MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH THE ENTIRE DAY
TODAY WILL BE THE OBX AS THIS AREA IS CLOSEST TO THE NOR'EASTER
OFFSHORE AND THUS WILL SEE THE BEST MOISTURE. AS WE GET INTO
THIS AFTERNOON EXPECT DRY AIR TO CONTINUE TO WORK ITS WAY INTO
ENC AS THE AFOREMENTIONED NOR'EASTER BEGINS TO PULL AWAY FROM
ENC ALLOWING CIGS TO RAISE TO VFR ACROSS ALL OF ENC BY THIS
EVENING. SOME ISO SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE OBX AS WELL
BUT TAF SITES SHOULD REMAIN DRY TODAY. SIGNIFICANT REDUCTIONS TO
VIS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED.
THE GRADIENT AROUND THE DEVELOPING NOR'EASTER WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT MODERATE, AND GUSTY, NORTHERLY WINDS TODAY BEFORE WINDS
FINALLY EASE TONIGHT. GUSTS OF 20-25KT WILL BE COMMON FOR MOST
TAF SITES, WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING KMRH WHERE GUSTS TO 30KT
WILL BE POSSIBLE.
OUTLOOK: CIGS ARE FORECAST TO EVENTUALLY RISE TO VFR LEVELS
EVERYWHERE ACROSS ENC BY THE WEEKEND AS DRIER AIR BEGINS TO
WRAPAROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE NOR'EASTER AND IT
CONTINUES TO PUSH FURTHER NORTH AWAY FROM ENC. THIS WILL KEEP
DRY CONDITIONS AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS ALL OF ENC INTO
NEXT WEEK. AS THIS LOW MOVES AWAY WINDS ARE ALSO FORECAST TO
EASE ACROSS ENC AS WELL AND REMAIN LIGHT INTO NEXT WEEK.
MARINE
HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE MARINE HAZARDS AS WINDS HAVE
BEGUN TO EASE SLIGHTLY SOONER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST ACROSS
OUR SOUTHERN WATERS, AND INLAND RIVERS/ALBEMARLE SOUND. HAVE
ENDED THE GALE WARNINGS ACROSS THE ALLIGATOR RIVER, ALBEMARLE
SOUND, ALONG THE NEARSHORE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF OCRACOKE, AND
OFFSHORE WATERS BETWEEN SURF CITY AND CAPE LOOKOUT AS OF THIS
UPDATE AS WIND GUSTS HAVE FALLEN BELOW 35 KTS ACROSS THESE
WATERS AND WILL CONTINUE TO EASE TODAY. THEY HAVE BEEN REPLACED
WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WHICH GO OUT INTO SAT NIGHT. ACROSS
THE NEUSE/BAY/PAMLICO/PUNGO RIVERS WINDS HAVE EASED
SIGNIFICANTLY OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTS WELL BELOW 25 KTS SO HAVE
ENDED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HERE. OTHERWISE THE REST OF THE
HEADLINES REMAIN ON TRACK FOR NOW.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE FORECAST AS
DANGEROUS MARINE CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS
ENC THIS MORNING AS A NOR'EASTER LOCATED OFF THE COAST HAS BEGUN
TO DEEPEN AND PUSH N'WARDS. WIDESPREAD GALE FORCE WINDS ARE
NOTED ACROSS MOST OF OUR WATERS THIS MORNING. LATEST OBS SHOW NE
WINDS 15-20 KT ACROSS THE INLAND RIVERS AND 20-30 KT GUSTING
35-40 KT ACROSS THE SOUNDS AND COASTAL WATERS WITH SEAS 10-20 FT
NORTH OF OCRACOKE AND 8-12 FT SOUTH. THESE DANGEROUS BOATING
CONDITIONS LOOK TO CONTINUE INTO TODAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
NOR'EASTER CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY DEEPEN AND SLOWLY SHIFT N'WARDS
TOWARDS THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS. GALE FORCE N'RLY WINDS DO LOOK
TO CONTINUE TODAY ACROSS MOST OF OUR WATERS, BUT WILL NOTE WITH
THIS SYSTEM TRACKING NORTH AND PULLING AWAY FROM ENC, EXPECT
GALE FORCE CONDITIONS TO WANE ACROSS OUR INLAND WATERS AND
SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS BY THIS EVENING WITH ANY ONGOING GALES
BEING REPLACED BY SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES. SO WHILE WE EXPECT THE
MORNING TO START OUT WITH 20-30 KT N'RLY WINDS WITH GUSTS UP
TOWARDS 35-40 KTS EVERYWHERE BUT THE PAMLICO/PUNGO/NEUSE/BAY
RIVERS WHERE SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE NOTED, WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
EASE DOWN TO 15-20 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25-30 KTS FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH THE LAST OF THE GALES LIKELY ENDING
BY SAT MORNING. SEAS OF 10-20FT WILL BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY
FOR THE WATERS FROM CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH THROUGH DUCK. SWELL
PERIODS WILL REMAIN AROUND 10-13 SECONDS INTO THIS WEEKEND AS
WELL.
OUTLOOK: BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE, HAZARDOUS MARINE
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO LAST INTO THE WEEKEND, ESPECIALLY
FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AS SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED. HOWEVER, WINDS
SHOULD GRADUALLY LAY DOWN OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY
AND A HIGH BUILDS IN WITH MORE BENIGN BOATING CONDITIONS
FORECAST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THESE BENIGN BOATING CONDITIONS
REMAIN IN PLACE INTO MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ094-
194-196.
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NCZ196-199-
203>205.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ203.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR NCZ203-205.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ203-205.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ204-
205.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ131-230.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ135-231.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ150-152-180-182.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ154-184.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ156-158.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ186.
DISCUSSION...RCF
AVIATION...RCF
MARINE...RCF
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