647
FXUS62 KMHX 251816
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
216 PM EDT FRI SEP 25 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ADJUSTED COASTAL FLOOD AND MARINE HEADLINES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) LARGE AND SLOW MOVING NOR'EASTER CONTINUES TO BRING
HAZARDOUS COASTAL AND MARINE CONDITIONS TO THE AREA, GRADUALLY
IMPROVING OVER THIS WEEKEND.
2) HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN NEXT WEEK, BRINGING WARM TEMPERATURES
AND LIGHTER WINDS.
MARINE: GALE FORCE WINDS AND VERY DANGEROUS SEAS PERSIST THROUGH
WITH DANGEROUS SEAS POTENTIALLY STICKING AROUND UNTIL SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A LARGE AND
STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTING TOWARDS THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST THIS AFTERNOON. OVERALL, VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN
FORECAST THINKING. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE COULD BRING LIGHT RAIN
AT TIMES TO THE OUTER BANKS, THOUGH BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL
REMAIN OFFSHORE. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO
SAT.
BY FAR, THE GREATEST IMPACTS WITH THIS NOR'EASTER REMAIN ACROSS
THE OUTER BANKS, WITH COASTAL FLOODING, DANGEROUS SURF, BEACH
EROSION AND RIP CURRENTS. WINDS HAVE TRENDED DOWNWARD AND WILL
PLAN TO CANCEL THE WIND ADVISORY, THOUGH WILL STILL REMAIN
BREEZY TONIGHT. WAVE RUNUP CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN CONCERN WITH
THE THREAT FOR MINOR TO LOCALLY MODERATE AND SIGNIFICANT OCEAN
OVERWASH ALONG PORTIONS OF HATTERAS AND OCRACOKE ISLANDS. SEAS
REMAIN AT 10-16 FT ABOUT 13-14 SECONDS. WHILE SEAS HAVE PEAKED,
THEY WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE, SO EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF OCEAN
OVERWASH WITH THIS EVENINGS HIGH TIDE (AROUND 7 PM) AND LIKELY
AGAIN SAT MORNING (AROUND 730 AM). EXTENDED CF WARNINGS AND
ADVISORIES INTO SAT MORNING. PORTIONS OF NC 12 ON HATTERAS AND
OCRACOKE ISLAND REMAIN CLOSED. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. OUTER BANKS SOUNDSIDE WATER
LEVELS CONTINUE TO RECEDE WITH GRAD WEAKENING NORTHERLY WINDS,
THOUGH COULD STILL SEE MINOR INUNDATION INTO TONIGHT. MINOR
INUNDATION MAY CONTINUE FOR DOWNEAST CARTERET INTO TONIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 2...AS THE LOW SHIFTS TO NEW ENGLAND AND EVENTUALLY
WEAKENS, SFC HIGH AND RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS INTO ENC EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THIS WILL BRING LIGHTER WINDS, SUNSHINE, AND WARMER
WEATHER BACK TO THE REGION. OF NOTE, DESPITE THE WARMING
WEATHER, DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN IN THE 50S INTO
MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK, MAKING FOR MORE COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS
DESPITE HIGHS WARMING UP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S. SLIGHTLY
HIGHER DEWPOINTS INTO THE 60S LOOK TO RETURN CLOSER TO THE END
OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
MIX OF VFR AND MVFR ACROSS THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT
PRED VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING, THEN CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. N WIND GUSTS WILL DIMINISH
TOWARDS SUNSET THIS EVENING.
OUTLOOK: PRED VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS.
MARINE
LATEST OBS SHOW N WINDS 15-25 KT NEAR THE COAST, AND 20-30 KT
GUSTING 30-35 KT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS...WITH SEAS 10-18 FT
NORTH OF HATTERAS AND 5-13 FT SOUTH. MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO
THE ONGOING MARINE HEADLINES. GALE WARNINGS CONTINUE NORTH OF
OCRACOKE, SCAS SOUTH OF OCRACOKE AND THE SOUNDS. WHILE WINDS
AND SEAS HAVE PEAKED THEY WILL BE SLOW TO EASE FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH TONIGHT AND SAT. N-NW WINDS WILL CONT SAT, STRONGEST NORTH
OF OCRACOKE.
OUTLOOK: HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO LAST INTO
THE WEEKEND, ESPECIALLY FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AS SEAS REMAIN
ELEVATED. HOWEVER, WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY LAY DOWN OVER THE
WEEKEND AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY AND A HIGH BUILDS IN WITH MORE
BENIGN BOATING CONDITIONS FORECAST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THESE
BENIGN BOATING CONDITIONS REMAIN IN PLACE INTO MIDWEEK NEXT
WEEK.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ196-
199-203>205.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ196.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR NCZ203.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR NCZ203-205.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ203-205.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR NCZ204-205.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ131-230.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ135-231.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ150-152-180-182.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ154-184.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ156-158.
DISCUSSION...CQD/RCF
AVIATION...CQD/RCF
MARINE...CQD/RCF
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