049
FXUS62 KMHX 260537
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
137 AM EDT SAT SEP 26 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
WAS ABLE TO DROP GALE WARNING FOR COASTAL WATERS S OF CAPE
HATTERAS. ADJUSTED THE END TIMES OF REMAINING GALES.
AVIATION DISCO UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
1) LARGE AND SLOW MOVING NOR'EASTER CONTINUES TO BRING
HAZARDOUS COASTAL AND MARINE CONDITIONS TO THE AREA, GRADUALLY
IMPROVING OVER THIS WEEKEND.
2) HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN NEXT WEEK, BRINGING WARM TEMPERATURES
AND LIGHTER WINDS.
MARINE: GALE FORCE WINDS AND VERY DANGEROUS SEAS PERSIST THROUGH
WITH DANGEROUS SEAS POTENTIALLY STICKING AROUND UNTIL SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A LARGE AND
STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTING TOWARDS THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST THIS AFTERNOON. OVERALL, VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN
FORECAST THINKING. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE COULD BRING LIGHT RAIN
AT TIMES TO THE OUTER BANKS, THOUGH BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL
REMAIN OFFSHORE. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO
SAT.
BY FAR, THE GREATEST IMPACTS WITH THIS NOR'EASTER REMAIN ACROSS
THE OUTER BANKS, WITH COASTAL FLOODING, DANGEROUS SURF, BEACH
EROSION AND RIP CURRENTS. WINDS HAVE TRENDED DOWNWARD AND WILL
PLAN TO CANCEL THE WIND ADVISORY, THOUGH WILL STILL REMAIN
BREEZY TONIGHT. WAVE RUNUP CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN CONCERN WITH
THE THREAT FOR MINOR TO LOCALLY MODERATE AND SIGNIFICANT OCEAN
OVERWASH ALONG PORTIONS OF HATTERAS AND OCRACOKE ISLANDS. SEAS
REMAIN AT 10-16 FT ABOUT 13-14 SECONDS. WHILE SEAS HAVE PEAKED,
THEY WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE, SO EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF OCEAN
OVERWASH WITH THIS EVENINGS HIGH TIDE (AROUND 7 PM) AND LIKELY
AGAIN SAT MORNING (AROUND 730 AM). EXTENDED CF WARNINGS AND
ADVISORIES INTO SAT MORNING. PORTIONS OF NC 12 ON HATTERAS AND
OCRACOKE ISLAND REMAIN CLOSED. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. OUTER BANKS SOUNDSIDE WATER
LEVELS CONTINUE TO RECEDE WITH GRAD WEAKENING NORTHERLY WINDS,
THOUGH COULD STILL SEE MINOR INUNDATION INTO TONIGHT. MINOR
INUNDATION MAY CONTINUE FOR DOWNEAST CARTERET INTO TONIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 2...AS THE LOW SHIFTS TO NEW ENGLAND AND EVENTUALLY
WEAKENS, SFC HIGH AND RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS INTO ENC EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THIS WILL BRING LIGHTER WINDS, SUNSHINE, AND WARMER
WEATHER BACK TO THE REGION. OF NOTE, DESPITE THE WARMING
WEATHER, DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN IN THE 50S INTO
MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK, MAKING FOR MORE COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS
DESPITE HIGHS WARMING UP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S. SLIGHTLY
HIGHER DEWPOINTS INTO THE 60S LOOK TO RETURN CLOSER TO THE END
OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
A DRY NORTHERLY FLOW SHOULD SUPPORT VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF
SITES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER, AFTERNOON HEATING PLUS
RESIDUAL LOW- LEVEL MOISTURE MAY ALLOW AN AREA OF SCT TO BKN
VFR-LEVEL CUMULUS (4- 6K FT) TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.
EAST OF THE TAF SITES, AN AREA OF MVFR CIGS IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ALONG WITH A BAND OF SHRA ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL IMPACT
OBX RUNWAYS/AIRSTRIPS.
DEEP MIXING PLUS MODEST NORTHERLY WINDS ALOFT SHOULD LEAD TO A
PERIOD OF GUSTY NW WINDS, WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 20-25KT.
STRONGER GUSTS (25-35KT) ARE EXPECTED FOR OBX RUNWAYS.
OUTLOOK: WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DECREASE OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AS THE NOR'EASTER PULLS SLOWLY AWAY
FROM THE AREA AND WEAKENS. A DRY AIRMASS IN THE WAKE OF THAT
SYSTEM SHOULD ALLOW VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL INTO AT LEAST THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
MARINE
DIAMOND SHOALS JUST FELL BELOW 30KT GUSTS, AND HAVE THEREFORE
DROPPED THE GALE WARNING FOR THE COASTAL WATER ZONE S OF
CAPEHATT SLIGHTLY EARLIER AND REPLACED WITH A NEW SCA. REMAINING
GALE WARNING END TIMES HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED BASED ON NEW WIND
FORECAST BLENDING IN SOME OF THE 18Z HIRES SUITE.
PREVIOUS DISCO...LATEST OBS SHOW N WINDS 15-25 KT NEAR THE
COAST, AND 20-30 KT GUSTING 30-35 KT ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS...WITH SEAS 10-18 FT NORTH OF HATTERAS AND 5-13 FT SOUTH.
MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE ONGOING MARINE HEADLINES. GALE
WARNINGS CONTINUE NORTH OF OCRACOKE, SCAS SOUTH OF OCRACOKE AND
THE SOUNDS. WHILE WINDS AND SEAS HAVE PEAKED THEY WILL BE SLOW
TO EASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH TONIGHT AND SAT. N-NW WINDS WILL
CONT SAT, STRONGEST NORTH OF OCRACOKE.
OUTLOOK: HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO LAST INTO
THE WEEKEND, ESPECIALLY FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AS SEAS REMAIN
ELEVATED. HOWEVER, WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY LAY DOWN OVER THE
WEEKEND AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY AND A HIGH BUILDS IN WITH MORE
BENIGN BOATING CONDITIONS FORECAST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THESE
BENIGN BOATING CONDITIONS REMAIN IN PLACE INTO MIDWEEK NEXT
WEEK.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH
THIS EVENING FOR NCZ196-203>205.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ203.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ203-205.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ204-
205.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ131-
230.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ135-
231.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ150-182.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR AMZ152.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ156-158.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ180.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR AMZ184.
DISCUSSION...CQD/CEB
AVIATION...RM
MARINE...CQD/CEB
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