726
FXUS62 KMHX 260727
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
327 AM EDT SAT SEP 26 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE MARINE HEADLINES BASED ON THE
LATEST TRENDS IN MARINE OBSERVATIONS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) LARGE AND SLOW MOVING NOR'EASTER CONTINUES TO BRING
HAZARDOUS COASTAL AND MARINE CONDITIONS TO THE AREA, GRADUALLY
IMPROVING OVER THIS WEEKEND.
2) HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN NEXT WEEK, BRINGING WARM
TEMPERATURES AND LIGHTER WINDS.
MARINE: MODERATE TO STRONG WINDS AND DANGEROUS SEAS PERSIST
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, WITH DANGEROUS SEAS POTENTIALLY LASTING
UNTIL SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...AS OF EARLY THIS MORNING, A DEEPENING
NOR'EASTER WAS LOCATED ABOUT 230 MILES NE OF CAPE HATTERAS, AND
WAS MOVING SLOWLY NORTH. GUIDANCE IS NOW WELL-CLUSTERED WITH THE
TRACK OF THIS LOW AS IT CONTINUES NORTH TOWARDS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. HOWEVER, THE NORTHWARD PROGRESS SHOULD BE SLOWED BY AN
UPPER RIDGE SLIDING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS SHOULD STEER THE NOR'EASTER WEST
TOWARDS THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
EVENTUALLY, THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN AND LIFT NE AWAY FROM THE
U.S. EAST COAST.
ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE NOR'EASTER, A MODERATE TO
STRONG GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS NORTHEAST
NC AND THE NORTHERN OBX. DESPITE A BIT OF A LULL IN THE
STRONGEST WINDS THIS MORNING, THE WIND FORECAST WAS LEFT MOSTLY
UNCHANGED AS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE GRADIENT MAY RESTRENGTHEN AS
THE NOR'EASTER POTENTIALLY MOVES A BIT WEST OF DUE NORTH ALONG
THE COAST. IT'S POSSIBLE THAT THE STRONGEST GRADIENT, AND
STRONGEST WINDS, WILL REMAIN JUST EAST OF THE COAST, AND
ADJUSTMENTS DOWN WITH THE WIND FORECAST MAY BE NEEDED. IT SHOULD
BE NOTED THAT THE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO BE SIGNIFICANTLY
WEAKER ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA, WITH
NOTICEABLY WIND DIFFERENCES FROM NE TO SW. THAT SAID, A DRY AND
WELL-MIXED AIRMASS TODAY SHOULD SUPPORT ONE MORE DAY OF GUSTY
WINDS OF 20-25MPH INLAND AWAY FROM THE COAST.
THE DRY AIRMASS SHOULD KEEP MOST OF ENC DRY TODAY. THE ONE
EXCEPTION, THOUGH, IS ALONG THE NRN OBX. THERE, INCREASING CAA
ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE NOR'EASTER SHOULD LEAD TO STEEP
LOW- LEVEL LAPSE RATES ALONG THE LENGTH OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY
(WHERE WATER TEMPS ARE STILL IN THE 70S). THIS PLUS A FAVORABLE
TRAJECTORY DOWN THE LENGTH OF THE BAY SHOULD SUPPORT A BAND OF
SHOWERS EXTENDING SOUTHEAST FROM EASTERN VA INTO NE NC.
DESPITE WINDS GRADUALLY DECREASING TODAY, COASTAL IMPACTS WILL
CONTINUE TO PLAGUE PORTIONS OF THE OBX. BUOYS CURRENTLY SHOW
WAVE HEIGHTS OF 10-13FT AT 12-13 SECONDS, AND THIS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO LEAD TO WAVE RUNUP AND OCEAN OVERWASH IMPACTS ALONG
VULNERABLE STRETCHES OF THE OBX, WITH A CONTINUED FOCUS ON
HATTERAS AND OCRACOKE ISLANDS. PORTIONS OF NC-12 REMAIN CLOSED
ON BOTH HATTERAS AND OCRACOKE ISLANDS. ADDING TO THE IMPACT OF
THE WAVE RUNUP AND OVERWASH IS THE ALREADY ELEVATED ASTRONOMICAL
TIDES ONGOING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS
IN EFFECT UNTIL THIS EVENING FOR THOSE AREAS. FOR SOUNDSIDE
LOCATIONS, WATER LEVELS REMAIN THE MOST ELEVATED FOR AREAS
FAVORED IN NORTH OR NORTHWEST FLOW, INCLUDING AREAS AROUND
OCRACOKE AND HATTERAS VILLAGES. VARIOUS COASTAL FLOOD HEADLINES
REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH THE MORNING HIGH TIDE, BUT MAY NEED TO
BE EXTENDED IN TIME DEPENDING ON HOW THE WINDS AND SEAS EVOLVE
TODAY. IN ADDITION, AS THE NOR'EASTER PULLS AWAY FROM THE AREA,
A MORE DOMINANT WESTERLY WIND IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY SUNDAY,
AND THIS MAY LEAD TO A RISK OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AROUND
ROANOKE ISLAND.
KEY MESSAGE 2...BY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK, A NOTABLE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. THIS
COMBINED WITH RISING LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES IN SOUTHERLY FLOW
SHOULD SUPPORT WARMING TEMPERATURES, INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR
A PERIOD OF ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS ONCE AGAIN. MOISTURE IS FORECAST
TO BE SLOWER TO RETURN, AND THIS SHOULD SUPPORT MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
A DRY NORTHERLY FLOW SHOULD SUPPORT VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF
SITES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER, AFTERNOON HEATING PLUS
RESIDUAL LOW- LEVEL MOISTURE MAY ALLOW AN AREA OF SCT TO BKN
VFR-LEVEL CUMULUS (4-6K FT) TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.
EAST OF THE TAF SITES, AN AREA OF MVFR CIGS IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ALONG WITH A BAND OF SHRA ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL IMPACT
OBX RUNWAYS/AIRSTRIPS.
DEEP MIXING PLUS MODEST NORTHERLY WINDS ALOFT SHOULD LEAD TO A
PERIOD OF GUSTY NW WINDS, WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 20-25KT.
STRONGER GUSTS (25-35KT) ARE EXPECTED FOR OBX RUNWAYS.
OUTLOOK: WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DECREASE OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AS THE NOR'EASTER PULLS SLOWLY AWAY
FROM THE AREA AND WEAKENS. A DRY AIRMASS IN THE WAKE OF THAT
SYSTEM SHOULD ALLOW VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL INTO AT LEAST THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
MARINE
AS OF EARLY THIS MORNING, A DEEPENING NOR'EASTER WAS LOCATED
ABOUT 230 MILES NE OF CAPE HATTERAS, AND WAS MOVING SLOWLY
NORTH. ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS LOW, NORTHERLY WINDS OF
20-35KT ARE ONGOING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS.
FURTHER SOUTH, A WEAKER GRADIENT HAS ALLOWED WINDS TO LAY DOWN
TO 15-25KT. DESPITE GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK OF THE
NOR'EASTER, THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW LONG THE
GALE-FORCE WINDS WILL LAST NORTH OF CAPE HATTERAS. THE LATEST
FORECAST MAY BE A BIT GENEROUS COMPARED TO RECENT OBS. HOWEVER,
THERE IS STILL SOME WIGGLE ROOM OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO
WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW, THEREFORE THE FORECAST, AND MARINE
HEADLINES, WERE LEFT MOSTLY UNCHANGED. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT A
BIT OF A LULL IN THE WINDS THIS MORNING ISN'T A GUARANTEE THAT
STRONGER WINDS WON'T RETURN FOR A TIME TODAY. A MORE SUBSTANTIAL
LAYING DOWN OF THE WINDS IS EXPECTED BY TONIGHT OR SUNDAY AS
THE NOR'EASTER FINALLY LIFTS FURTHER AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA.
FOR THE COASTAL WATERS NORTH OF CAPE HATTERAS, DANGEROUS SEAS
OF 12- 18FT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY, THEN FINALLY BEGIN TO
LAY DOWN TO 10FT, OR LESS, BY TONIGHT. SOUTH OF CAPE HATTERAS,
THE MOST DANGEROUS SEAS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE OUTER COASTAL
WATERS, WHILE THE WATERS CLOSER TO SHORE WILL HAVE ELEVATED
SEAS, BUT NOT AS HIGH AS FURTHER OUT.
OUTLOOK: BOATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSTANTIALLY
IMPROVE AS WE MOVE INTO NEXT WEEK. NORTHERLY FLOW IS FORECAST TO
FLIP BACK TO SOUTHERLY FLOW BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH
THIS EVENING FOR NCZ196-203>205.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ203.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ203-205.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ204-
205.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ131-
230.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ135-
231.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ150-182.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR AMZ152.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ156-158.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ180.
DISCUSSION...RM
AVIATION...RM
MARINE...RM
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