288
FXUS62 KMHX 261723
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
123 PM EDT SAT SEP 26 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ADJUSTED CF AND MARINE HEADLINES BASED ON TRENDS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) LARGE AND SLOW MOVING NOR'EASTER CONTINUES TO BRING
HAZARDOUS COASTAL AND MARINE CONDITIONS TO THE AREA, GRADUALLY
IMPROVING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
2) HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN NEXT WEEK, BRINGING WARM
TEMPERATURES AND LIGHTER WINDS.
MARINE: MODERATE WINDS AND DANGEROUS SEAS PERSIST INTO TONIGHT,
WITH DANGEROUS SEAS POTENTIALLY LASTING UNTIL SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...AS OF EARLY THIS MORNING, A DEEPENING
NOR'EASTER WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NE
COAST TONIGHT. EVENTUALLY, THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN AND LIFT NE
AWAY FROM THE U.S. EAST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE DRY AIRMASS SHOULD KEEP MOST OF ENC DRY TODAY. THE ONE
EXCEPTION, THOUGH, IS ALONG THE NRN OBX. THERE, INCREASING CAA
ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE NOR'EASTER SHOULD LEAD TO STEEP
LOW- LEVEL LAPSE RATES ALONG THE LENGTH OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY.
THIS PLUS A FAVORABLE TRAJECTORY DOWN THE LENGTH OF THE BAY
SHOULD SUPPORT A BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS EXTENDING SOUTHEAST FROM
EASTERN VA INTO NE NC...THOUGH LITTLE ON RADAR AT THIS TIME.
DESPITE WINDS AND SEAS GRADUALLY DECREASING TODAY, COASTAL
IMPACTS WILL CONTINUE TO PLAGUE PORTIONS OF THE OBX. BUOYS
CURRENTLY SHOW WAVE HEIGHTS OF 10-13FT AT 12-13 SECONDS, AND
THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO LEAD TO WAVE RUNUP AND OCEAN OVERWASH
IMPACTS ALONG VULNERABLE STRETCHES OF THE OBX, WITH A CONTINUED
FOCUS ON HATTERAS AND OCRACOKE ISLANDS. PORTIONS OF NC-12 REMAIN
CLOSED ON BOTH HATTERAS AND OCRACOKE ISLANDS. ADDING TO THE
IMPACT OF THE WAVE RUNUP AND OVERWASH IS THE ALREADY ELEVATED
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ONGOING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EXTENDED THE CF
WARNINGS/ADVISORY AND THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY. IN ADDITION, AS
THE NOR'EASTER PULLS AWAY FROM THE AREA, A MORE MODERATE WESTERLY
WIND IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY SUNDAY, AND THIS MAY LEAD TO A
RISK OF VERY MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AROUND ROANOKE ISLAND.
KEY MESSAGE 2...BY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK, A NOTABLE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. THIS
COMBINED WITH RISING LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES IN SOUTHERLY FLOW
SHOULD SUPPORT WARMING TEMPERATURES, INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR
A PERIOD OF ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS ONCE AGAIN. MOISTURE IS FORECAST
TO BE SLOWER TO RETURN, AND THIS SHOULD SUPPORT MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. AFTERNOON
HEATING PLUS RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE MAY ALLOW AN AREA OF
SCT TO BKN VFR-LEVEL CUMULUS (4-6K FT) TO DEVELOP DURING THIS
AFTERNOON. EAST OF THE TAF SITES, AN AREA OF MVFR CIGS MAY
LINGER ALONG THE OUTER BANKS ALONG WITH A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN.
DEEP MIXING PLUS MODEST NORTHERLY WINDS ALOFT SHOULD LEAD TO A
PERIOD OF GUSTY NW WINDS, WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 15-25 KT.
OUTLOOK: WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DECREASE OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AS THE NOR'EASTER PULLS SLOWLY AWAY
FROM THE AREA AND WEAKENS. A DRY AIRMASS IN THE WAKE OF THAT
SYSTEM SHOULD ALLOW VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL INTO AT LEAST THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
MARINE
DEEPENING NOR'EASTER CONTINUES TO PUSH TOWARDS THE MID-ATLANTIC
AND NE COAST THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST OBS SHOW N-NW WINDS 15-25
KT GUSTING 20-30 KT WITH SEAS 10-15 FT NORTH OF OCRACOKE AND
5-10 FT SOUTH. DROPPED GALES BASED ON OBS, WHILE SCAS CONTINUE
FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AND SOUNDS. A MORE SUBSTANTIAL LAYING
DOWN OF THE WINDS IS EXPECTED BY TONIGHT OR SUNDAY AS THE
NOR'EASTER FINALLY LIFTS FURTHER AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA. FOR
THE COASTAL WATERS NORTH OF CAPE HATTERAS, DANGEROUS SEAS OF
10-15 FT WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO LAY DOWN TO 10FT, OR LESS
OVERNIGHT. SOUTH OF CAPE HATTERAS, THE MOST DANGEROUS SEAS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS, WHILE THE WATERS CLOSER
TO SHORE WILL HAVE ELEVATED SEAS, BUT NOT AS HIGH AS FURTHER
OUT. W-NW WINDS 10-20 KT SUN WITH SEAS SLOWLY SUBSIDING WITH THE
OFFSHORE FLOW.
OUTLOOK: BOATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSTANTIALLY
IMPROVE AS WE MOVE INTO NEXT WEEK. NORTHERLY FLOW IS FORECAST TO
SHIFT TO SOUTHERLY FLOW BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ196-
203>205.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NCZ203.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR NCZ203-205.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NCZ204-
205.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ131-135-156-
158-230-231.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ150.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
DISCUSSION...RM/CQD
AVIATION...RM/CQD
MARINE...RM/CQD
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