668
FXUS62 KMHX 270536
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
136 AM EDT SUN SEP 27 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE COASTAL FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN TRANSITIONED TO A COASTAL
FLOOD ADVISORY FOR HATTERAS AND OCRACOKE ISLANDS, AND IS NOW IN
EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING'S HIGH TIDE.
EXTENDED CF ADVY FOR NOBX THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING'S HIGH TIDE
CYCLE.
DROPPED SCAS ACROSS ALL INSIDE WATERS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) LARGE AND SLOW MOVING NOR'EASTER CONTINUES TO BRING
HAZARDOUS COASTAL AND MARINE CONDITIONS TO THE AREA, GRADUALLY
IMPROVING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
2) HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN NEXT WEEK, BRINGING WARM
TEMPERATURES AND LIGHTER WINDS.
MARINE: MODERATE WINDS AND DANGEROUS SEAS PERSIST INTO TONIGHT,
WITH DANGEROUS SEAS POTENTIALLY LASTING UNTIL SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...AS OF THIS EVENING, A DEEPENING NOR'EASTER WILL
CONTINUE TO LIFT ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NE COAST TONIGHT.
EVENTUALLY, THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN AND LIFT NE AWAY FROM THE
U.S. EAST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE DRY AIRMASS SHOULD KEEP MOST OF ENC DRY TODAY. THE ONE
EXCEPTION, THOUGH, IS ALONG THE NRN OBX. THERE, INCREASING CAA
ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE NOR'EASTER SHOULD LEAD TO STEEP
LOW- LEVEL LAPSE RATES ALONG THE LENGTH OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY.
THIS PLUS A FAVORABLE TRAJECTORY DOWN THE LENGTH OF THE BAY
COULD SUPPORT A BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS EXTENDING SOUTHEAST FROM
EASTERN VA INTO NE NC...THOUGH LITTLE ON RADAR AT THIS TIME.
KEEPING POPS FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST HERE INTACT, JUST A SLIGHT
CHANCE, WITH THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO BEING ISO SHOWERS CONFINED
OFFSHORE.
DESPITE WINDS AND SEAS GRADUALLY DECREASING TODAY, COASTAL
IMPACTS WILL CONTINUE TO PLAGUE PORTIONS OF THE OBX. BUOYS
CURRENTLY SHOW WAVE HEIGHTS OF 10-13FT AT 12-13 SECONDS, AND
THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO LEAD TO WAVE RUNUP AND OCEAN OVERWASH
IMPACTS ALONG VULNERABLE STRETCHES OF THE OBX, WITH A CONTINUED
FOCUS ON HATTERAS AND OCRACOKE ISLANDS. PORTIONS OF NC-12 REMAIN
CLOSED ON BOTH HATTERAS AND OCRACOKE ISLANDS. ADDING TO THE
IMPACT OF THE WAVE RUNUP AND OVERWASH IS THE ALREADY ELEVATED
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ONGOING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DESPITE ELEVATED
SEAS AND WATER LEVELS, CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY IMPROVE. IN LIGHT OF THIS, THE COASTAL FLOOD WARNING
FOR HATTERAS AND OCRACOKE ISLANDS HAS NOW BEEN TRANSITIONED TO A
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY, AND IS IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING'S HIGH TIDE. IN ADDITION, AS THE NOR'EASTER PULLS AWAY
FROM THE AREA, A MORE MODERATE WESTERLY WIND IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP BY SUNDAY, AND THIS MAY LEAD TO A RISK OF VERY MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING AROUND ROANOKE ISLAND. OUT OF AN ABUNDANCE OF
CAUTION, THE CF ADVY HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING'S
HIGH TIDE CYCLE WITH UP TO 1FT OF INUNDATION POSSIBLE ON OCEAN-
SIDE LOCATIONS DUE TO THE BATTERED DUNE STRUCTURES AND
LOCALIZED MINOR SOUND-SIDE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW
DUE TO THE WERLY WINDS AND HIGHER TIDE CYCLE MENTIONED ABOVE.
THE COASTAL FLOOD WARNING WILL LIKELY BE REPLACED WITH AN ADVY
WHEN THE WARNING COMES DOWN TONIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 2...BY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK, A NOTABLE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. THIS
COMBINED WITH RISING LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES IN SOUTHERLY FLOW
SHOULD SUPPORT WARMING TEMPERATURES, INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR
A PERIOD OF ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS ONCE AGAIN. MOISTURE IS FORECAST
TO BE SLOWER TO RETURN, AND THIS SHOULD SUPPORT MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE TO HIGH OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THE BIGGEST CHANGE TO THE AVIATION FORECAST OVERNIGHT WAS TO
INTRODUCE A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS AT KPGV AND KEWN. GUIDANCE HAS
BEEN STRUGGLING WITH THE EXTENT OF THESE LOWER CIGS AS THEY
PROGRESS SOUTH OUT OF VIRGINIA. THEY APPEAR TO BE ASSOCIATED
WITH AN AREA OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION ON THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE NOR'EASTER OFF THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC
COAST. SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE IS STARTING TO CATCH UP TO THE FASTER
AND MORE EXPANSIVE TREND, AND IS WHY KPGV AND KEWN NOW HAVE
TEMPO GROUPS FOR MVFR CIGS. THE PROBABILITY OF MVFR CONDITIONS
IS LOWER FOR THE REMAINING TAF SITES, AND THE FORECAST CONTINUES
TO SHOW VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.
BY SUNDAY MORNING, A DRYING WESTERLY FLOW IS FORECAST TO ENSUE
AND THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A QUICK REDUCTION TO ANY REMAINING MVFR
CIGS. THOSE WESTERLY WINDS ARE LIKELY TO BE GUSTY AT TIMES, WITH
GUSTS TO 20KT FORECAST FOR SEVERAL HOURS.
OUTLOOK: UNTIL THE NOR'EASTER PULLS FULLY AWAY FROM THE REGION,
THERE MAY STILL BE A LOW-END CHANCE OF SCT TO BKN MVFR-LEVEL
CLOUDS, BUT IN GENERAL, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DOMINATE
MOVING INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
MARINE
DEEPENING NOR'EASTER CONTINUES TO PUSH TOWARDS THE MID-ATLANTIC
AND NE COAST THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST OBS SHOW NWERLY WINDS,
5-10KT INLAND RIVERS, 10-15KT LARGER SOUNDS, WITH OUTSIDE WATERS
SHOWING 10-25KT, STRONGEST NERN WATERS. SEAS 10-12 FT NORTH OF
OCRACOKE AND 4-8FT SOUTH. ALL SCAS ON THE INSIDE HAVE BEEN
DROPPED SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF SCHEDULE WITH WINDS FALLING OFF
QUICKLY THIS EVENING. SCAS CONTINUE FOR THE COASTAL WATERS.
WINDS CONTINUE TO RELAX TONIGHT AS THE NOR'EASTER FINALLY LIFTS
FURTHER AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA. W-NW WINDS 10-20 KT SUN WITH
SEAS SLOWLY SUBSIDING WITH THE OFFSHORE FLOW.
OUTLOOK: BOATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSTANTIALLY
IMPROVE AS WE MOVE INTO NEXT WEEK. NORTHERLY FLOW IS FORECAST TO
SHIFT TO SOUTHERLY FLOW BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NCZ203-205.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR
NCZ203>205.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ203-205.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ150.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ152-
154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
AMZ156-158.
DISCUSSION...CQD/CEB
AVIATION...RM
MARINE...CQD/CEB
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