470
FXUS62 KMHX 270710
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
310 AM EDT SUN SEP 27 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FOR HATTERAS AND OCRACOKE ISLANDS HAS
BEEN TRANSITIONED TO A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY, AND IS NOW IN
EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING'S HIGH TIDE.
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS HAS
BEEN EXPIRED.
KEY MESSAGES
1) ELEVATED WATER LEVELS AND ROUGH SURF TO CONTINUE IMPACTING
SOME OBX COMMUNITIES THROUGH THIS EVENING'S HIGH TIDE.
2) HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THROUGH THE WEEK WITH WARMING
TEMPERATURES AND LIGHTER WINDS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...A LARGE NOR'EASTER CONTINUES TO SPIN OFF THE
COAST OF THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC THIS MORNING. WELL SOUTH OF
THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO
RELAX, AND THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT WINDS STEPPING DOWN
COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW DAYS. AS THE WINDS WEAKEN, AND AS THE
NOR'EASTER FINALLY WEAKENS AND PULLS FURTHER AWAY FROM THE
REGION, SWELL ENERGY WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE. WHILE SOME
COASTAL COMMUNITIES WILL CONTINUE TO FEEL THE EFFECTS OF THE
ROUGH SURF AND STRONG SWELL, THE MAGNITUDE OF IMPACTS IS
EXPECTED TO TAKE A STEP DOWN TODAY. IN LIGHT OF THIS, THE
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FOR HATTERAS AND OCRACOKE ISLANDS HAS NOW
BEEN TRANSITIONED TO A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY. AREAS WHERE DUNES
HAVE BEEN DAMAGED OR WEAKENED, SOME MINOR FLOODING MAY CONTINUE
THROUGH 1 OR 2 MORE HIGH TIDES (AROUND 8:00AM THIS MORNING AND
8:00PM THIS EVENING). ADDITIONALLY, WATER MAY BE SLOW TO RECEDE
WHERE ROADS HAVE BEEN FLOODED OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS, EVEN
WITHOUT ADDITIONAL SOUND OR OCEANSIDE WATER LEVEL RISES.
OF NOTE, THE ONE AREA WHERE NEW, MINOR COASTAL FLOODING MAY
OCCUR IS AROUND ROANOKE ISLAND. MODERATE WESTERLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE LENGTH OF THE ALBEMARLE SOUND FOR
SEVERAL HOURS TODAY, AND THIS MAY SUPPORT ELEVATED WATERS LEVELS
IN THE CROATAN AND ROANOKE SOUNDS. IT'S UNCLEAR WHETHER THE
WINDS WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR A LONG ENOUGH DURATION, BUT THE
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR UP TO 1 FT OF INUNDATION AROUND THOSE
SOUNDS, AND THE NORTHERN OBX COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY COVERS THIS
RISK.
KEY MESSAGE 2...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD OVER
THE SOUTHEAST U.S. LATER THIS WEEK, BUT GUIDANCE HAS SLOWED DOWN
SOME ON WHEN THIS OCCURS. IN LIGHT OF THIS, THE WARMEST
TEMPERATURES OF THE WEEK HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS THE END OF THE
WEEK (THURSDAY/FRIDAY). BENEATH THE RIDGE, WARMING LOW-LEVEL
THICKNESSES AND PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW MAY ALLOW INLAND HIGHS
TO GET BACK CLOSE TO 90 DEGREES (ROUGHLY 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL AS WE HEAD INTO THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF OCTOBER). THE
HUMIDITY IS FORECAST TO STEADILY RETURN AS WELL, BUT WITH
RIDGING IN PLACE, THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS
TO STAY LOW FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE TO HIGH OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THE BIGGEST CHANGE TO THE AVIATION FORECAST OVERNIGHT WAS TO
INTRODUCE A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS AT KPGV AND KEWN. GUIDANCE HAS
BEEN STRUGGLING WITH THE EXTENT OF THESE LOWER CIGS AS THEY
PROGRESS SOUTH OUT OF VIRGINIA. THEY APPEAR TO BE ASSOCIATED
WITH AN AREA OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION ON THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE NOR'EASTER OFF THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC
COAST. SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE IS STARTING TO CATCH UP TO THE FASTER
AND MORE EXPANSIVE TREND, AND IS WHY KPGV AND KEWN NOW HAVE
TEMPO GROUPS FOR MVFR CIGS. THE PROBABILITY OF MVFR CONDITIONS
IS LOWER FOR THE REMAINING TAF SITES, AND THE FORECAST CONTINUES
TO SHOW VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.
BY SUNDAY MORNING, A DRYING WESTERLY FLOW IS FORECAST TO ENSUE
AND THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A QUICK REDUCTION TO ANY REMAINING MVFR
CIGS. THOSE WESTERLY WINDS ARE LIKELY TO BE GUSTY AT TIMES, WITH
GUSTS TO 20KT FORECAST FOR SEVERAL HOURS.
OUTLOOK: UNTIL THE NOR'EASTER PULLS FULLY AWAY FROM THE REGION,
THERE MAY STILL BE A LOW-END CHANCE OF SCT TO BKN MVFR-LEVEL
CLOUDS, BUT IN GENERAL, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DOMINATE
MOVING INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
MARINE
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 10-15KT THIS MORNING ARE FORECAST TO
BECOME WESTERLY BY THIS AFTERNOON, AND MAY SLIGHTLY BUILD TO
10-20KT. FOR THE NEARSHORE COASTAL WATERS, 25KT WINDS ARE NOT
EXPECTED, BUT IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE BREEZY. WINDS FINALLY LAY
DOWN SUBSTANTIALLY BY MONDAY AS THE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO RELAX.
OF NOTE, A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MAY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
ON MONDAY. WHILE IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE STRONG, IT MAY LEAD TO
VARYING WIND DIRECTIONS DURING THE DAY.
FOR THE NEARSHORE COASTAL WATERS NORTH OF CAPE HATTERAS, SEAS
OF 6- 8FT THIS MORNING SHOULD FINALLY LAY DOWN BELOW 6FT BY
EARLY THIS EVENING. A SEAS-DRIVEN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS
IN EFFECT THROUGH THEN. FOR THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS, SEAS OF
7-10FT ARE FORECAST TO LAST INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. FOR ALL
COASTAL WATERS, SEAS ARE FORECAST TO LAY DOWN TO 2-4FT BY
MONDAY.
OUTLOOK: SEVERAL DAYS OF MUCH-IMPROVED BOATING CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ARE FORECAST TO BECOME SOUTHERLY THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. SEAS OF 2-3FT ARE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK AS
WELL.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NCZ203-205.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR
NCZ203>205.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ203-205.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ150.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ152-
154.
DISCUSSION...RM
AVIATION...RM
MARINE...RM
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