369
FXUS62 KMHX 271056
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
656 AM EDT SUN SEP 27 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED.
THE COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FOR HATTERAS AND OCRACOKE ISLANDS HAS
BEEN TRANSITIONED TO A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY, AND IS NOW IN
EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING'S HIGH TIDE.
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS HAS
BEEN EXPIRED.
KEY MESSAGES
1) ELEVATED WATER LEVELS AND ROUGH SURF TO CONTINUE IMPACTING
SOME OBX COMMUNITIES THROUGH THIS EVENING'S HIGH TIDE.
2) HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THROUGH THE WEEK WITH WARMING
TEMPERATURES AND LIGHTER WINDS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...A LARGE NOR'EASTER CONTINUES TO SPIN OFF THE
COAST OF THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC THIS MORNING. WELL SOUTH OF
THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO
RELAX, AND THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT WINDS STEPPING DOWN
COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW DAYS. AS THE WINDS WEAKEN, AND AS THE
NOR'EASTER FINALLY WEAKENS AND PULLS FURTHER AWAY FROM THE
REGION, SWELL ENERGY WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE. WHILE SOME
COASTAL COMMUNITIES WILL CONTINUE TO FEEL THE EFFECTS OF THE
ROUGH SURF AND STRONG SWELL, THE MAGNITUDE OF IMPACTS IS
EXPECTED TO TAKE A STEP DOWN TODAY. IN LIGHT OF THIS, THE
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FOR HATTERAS AND OCRACOKE ISLANDS HAS NOW
BEEN TRANSITIONED TO A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY. AREAS WHERE DUNES
HAVE BEEN DAMAGED OR WEAKENED, SOME MINOR FLOODING MAY CONTINUE
THROUGH 1 OR 2 MORE HIGH TIDES (AROUND 8:00AM THIS MORNING AND
8:00PM THIS EVENING). ADDITIONALLY, WATER MAY BE SLOW TO RECEDE
WHERE ROADS HAVE BEEN FLOODED OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS, EVEN
WITHOUT ADDITIONAL SOUND OR OCEANSIDE WATER LEVEL RISES.
OF NOTE, THE ONE AREA WHERE NEW, MINOR COASTAL FLOODING MAY
OCCUR IS AROUND ROANOKE ISLAND. MODERATE WESTERLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE LENGTH OF THE ALBEMARLE SOUND FOR
SEVERAL HOURS TODAY, AND THIS MAY SUPPORT ELEVATED WATERS LEVELS
IN THE CROATAN AND ROANOKE SOUNDS. IT'S UNCLEAR WHETHER THE
WINDS WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR A LONG ENOUGH DURATION, BUT THE
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR UP TO 1 FT OF INUNDATION AROUND THOSE
SOUNDS, AND THE NORTHERN OBX COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY COVERS THIS
RISK.
KEY MESSAGE 2...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD OVER
THE SOUTHEAST U.S. LATER THIS WEEK, BUT GUIDANCE HAS SLOWED DOWN
SOME ON WHEN THIS OCCURS. IN LIGHT OF THIS, THE WARMEST
TEMPERATURES OF THE WEEK HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS THE END OF THE
WEEK (THURSDAY/FRIDAY). BENEATH THE RIDGE, WARMING LOW-LEVEL
THICKNESSES AND PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW MAY ALLOW INLAND HIGHS
TO GET BACK CLOSE TO 90 DEGREES (ROUGHLY 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL AS WE HEAD INTO THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF OCTOBER). THE
HUMIDITY IS FORECAST TO STEADILY RETURN AS WELL, BUT WITH
RIDGING IN PLACE, THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS
TO STAY LOW FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE TO HIGH OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
AN AREA OF LOW TO MID LEVEL CIGS IS SPIRALING AROUND THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE NOR'EASTER THAT IS OVER THE NORTHERN
MID-ATLANTIC COAST THIS MORNING. WHILE THERE IS SOME MVFR CIGS
WITHIN THIS DECK OF CLOUDS, THE EXPECTATION IS THAT THEY WILL
REMAIN EAST OF THE ENC TAF SITES. IT'S POSSIBLE THAT SOME LOWER
CLOUDS MAY LINGER AROUND A BIT LONGER INTO THE DAY TODAY, BUT
VFR CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR ALL TAF SITES.
WESTERLY WINDS THIS MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE SOME THIS
AFTERNOON, AND ARE LIKELY TO BE GUSTY AT TIMES, WITH GUSTS TO
20KT FORECAST FOR SEVERAL HOURS.
OUTLOOK: UNTIL THE NOR'EASTER PULLS FULLY AWAY FROM THE REGION,
THERE MAY STILL BE A LOW-END CHANCE OF SCT TO BKN MVFR-LEVEL
CLOUDS, BUT IN GENERAL, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DOMINATE
MOVING INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
MARINE
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 10-15KT THIS MORNING ARE FORECAST TO
BECOME WESTERLY BY THIS AFTERNOON, AND MAY SLIGHTLY BUILD TO
10-20KT. FOR THE NEARSHORE COASTAL WATERS, 25KT WINDS ARE NOT
EXPECTED, BUT IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE BREEZY. WINDS FINALLY LAY
DOWN SUBSTANTIALLY BY MONDAY AS THE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO RELAX.
OF NOTE, A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MAY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
ON MONDAY. WHILE IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE STRONG, IT MAY LEAD TO
VARYING WIND DIRECTIONS DURING THE DAY.
FOR THE NEARSHORE COASTAL WATERS NORTH OF CAPE HATTERAS, SEAS
OF 6- 8FT THIS MORNING SHOULD FINALLY LAY DOWN BELOW 6FT BY
EARLY THIS EVENING. A SEAS-DRIVEN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS
IN EFFECT THROUGH THEN. FOR THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS, SEAS OF
7-10FT ARE FORECAST TO LAST INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. FOR ALL
COASTAL WATERS, SEAS ARE FORECAST TO LAY DOWN TO 2-4FT BY
MONDAY.
OUTLOOK: SEVERAL DAYS OF MUCH-IMPROVED BOATING CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ARE FORECAST TO BECOME SOUTHERLY THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. SEAS OF 2-3FT ARE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK AS
WELL.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NCZ203-205.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR
NCZ203>205.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ150.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ152-
154.
DISCUSSION...RM
AVIATION...RM
MARINE...RM
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