723
FXUS62 KMHX 271747
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
147 PM EDT SUN SEP 27 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) ELEVATED WATER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT SOME OBX AND
COASTAL COMMUNITIES THROUGH THIS EVENING'S HIGH TIDE.
2) HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THROUGH THE WEEK WITH WARMING
TEMPERATURES AND LIGHTER WINDS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...WHILE SEAS HAVE DECREASED CONSIDERABLY OVER THE
LAST 24 HOURS, THERE IS STILL SOME POTENTIAL FOR MINOR OCEAN
OVERWASH AT THE NEXT HIGH TIDE THIS EVENING (AROUND 8 PM) FOR
PORTIONS OF THE OUTER BANKS. IN ADDITION, MINOR SOUNDSIDE
FLOODING (1 FT OR LESS) IS STILL POSSIBLE FOR COASTAL AREAS DUE
TO ALREADY ELEVATED WATERS LEVELS AND HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES. CF
ADVISORIES CONTINUE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 2...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD OVER
THE SOUTHEAST U.S. LATER THIS WEEK, BUT GUIDANCE HAS SLOWED DOWN
SOME ON WHEN THIS OCCURS. IN LIGHT OF THIS, THE WARMEST
TEMPERATURES OF THE WEEK HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS THE END OF THE
WEEK (THURSDAY/FRIDAY). BENEATH THE RIDGE, WARMING LOW-LEVEL
THICKNESSES AND PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW MAY ALLOW INLAND HIGHS
TO GET BACK CLOSE TO 90 DEGREES (ROUGHLY 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL AS WE HEAD INTO THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF OCTOBER). THE
HUMIDITY IS FORECAST TO STEADILY RETURN AS WELL, BUT WITH
RIDGING IN PLACE, THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS
TO STAY LOW FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. THE NEXT FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE AREA NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. WESTERLY WIND
GUSTS 15-20 KT WILL DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING.
OUTLOOK: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DOMINATE MOVING INTO AT
LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK.
MARINE
LATEST OBS SHOW W WINDS 10-20 KT WITH SEAS 3-6 FT NORTH OF
OCRACOKE AND 2-5 FT SOUTH, HIGHEST OFFSHORE. MODERATE WINDS WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH SEAS GRAD SUBSIDING. W-WNW WINDS 5-15 KT
EARLY MON, BECOMING W/SW BY AFTERNOON. SCAS CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT FEW HOURS NORTH OF OCRACOKE FOR LINGERING SEAS.
OUTLOOK: SEVERAL DAYS OF MUCH-IMPROVED BOATING CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED FOR MUCH OF THIS WEEK. LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY. SEAS OF 2-3 FT ARE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK AS
WELL.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ203-
205.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR
NCZ203>205.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ150-
152-154.
DISCUSSION...RM/CQD
AVIATION...RM/CQD
MARINE...RM/CQD
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