989
FXUS62 KMHX 110950
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
550 AM EDT SUN OCT 11 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ADJUSTED MARINE HEADLINES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) WET AND BREEZY WEEKEND CONTINUES AS DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE
OVERRUNS THE CAROLINAS. PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN
LIKELY, FOCUSED ALONG THE COAST, WITH GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE
COAST.
2) AN ISOLATED TORNADO RISK IN EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS IS
POSSIBLE THIS MORNING FOR SOUTHERN/EASTERN AREAS, AND FOR
INLAND AREAS THIS AFTERNOON.
3) ELEVATED WATER LEVELS AND HIGH SURF CONCERNS FOR COASTAL
COMMUNITIES THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...A PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE CHARACTERIZED BY
2"+ PWATS AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO
OVERSPREAD THE CAROLINAS TO THE EAST OF THE NORTHWARD-ADVANCING
REMNANTS OF TC ISAIAS THIS MORNING. AT THE SURFACE, A WARM
FRONT/COASTAL TROUGH (CURRENTLY JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA) WILL
TRUDGE NORTH ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN COASTLINE, LIKELY WITH A
WEAK, NON- TROPICAL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG IT.
NOW IT APPEARS THE MAIN AXIS OF CONVECTION WILL REMAIN OVER THE
GULF STREAM, WITH HEAVY STORMS OFFSHORE ROBBING SOME OF THE
RICH MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO ENC. THIS HAS BEEN A NOTABLE TREND
WITH MOST OF THE CAMS THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS. FOR THIS REASON,
HAVE CONT TO TREND DOWN WITH QPF, ESPECIALLY INLAND. MOST MODEL
ESTIMATES THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL INCHES ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST, WITH MUCH LOWER AMTS LESS THAN AN INCH OR SO FOR THE
INTERIOR COASTAL PLAIN COUNTIES. WILL CONTINUE FLOOD WATCH FOR
AREAS ALONG THE COAST, EFFECTIVE THROUGH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON,
THOUGH BULK OF WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL BE OVER BY MID MORNING.
KEY MESSAGE 2...POSSIBILITY OF CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS REACHING THE
COAST WOULD WARRANT A TORNADO RISK EARLY THIS MORNING AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH ENC. PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL
HELICITY IN PLACE WITH THE INC SERLY FLOW IN PLACE AND STRONG
VEERING WIND PROFILE DOWNSTAIRS. THE GREATEST TOR THREAT WOULD
LIKELY BE FOCUSED NEAR THE SRN/SERN COAST WHERE SOME BETTER
INSTABILITY ADVECTS ONSHORE. LATER TODAY, FLOW BECOMES MORE
UNIDIRECTIONAL WITH SWRLY LOW LEVEL WINDS ENSUING DURING THE
AFTERNOON. WHILE HELICITY WANES, BETTER INSTABILITY WILL BE IN
PLACE DUE TO DAYTIME HIGHS EXPECTED IN THE LOW 80S AND TD'S
SURGING THROUGH THE MID 70S. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR A SEVERE
THREAT THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT, WITH BEST
CHANCES APPEARING FOR THE INTERIOR ZONES, WHERE NCAR/HRRR SVR
PROBS ARE HIGHEST. MAIN CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE POTENTIAL
FOR ISO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
THE REMNANTS OF ISAIAS ARE FORECAST TO ROUND THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AND MOVE OFF THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC COAST EARLY NEXT
WEEK. DRIER AIR THEN MOVES IN BEHIND IT WITH DRYING CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING TONIGHT INTO MON.
KEY MESSAGE 3...STRONG ONSHORE WINDS, BUILDING SEAS, AND HIGHER
THAN NORMAL ASTRONOMICAL TIDES MAY SUPPORT SOME COASTAL IMPACTS
THROUGH EARLY MON. THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY ON THE MAGNITUDE
OF IMPACTS, ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE SHORTER-DURATION OF THE
STRONGER WINDS, AS WELL AS WHAT SHOULD BE A WEAKER SWELL AND
PERIODICITY COMPARED TO THE RECENT NOR'EASTER. WITH THAT IN
MIND, THERE WILL BE AN INCREASED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AND LARGE
WAVES, AT A MINIMUM. HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
BETWEEN OCRACOKE AND OREGON INLETS. ADDITIONALLY, SOME OF THE
MOST VULNERABLE LOCATIONS ALONG THE OUTER BANKS MAY SEE AT LEAST
SOME MINOR ISSUES, ESPECIALLY WITH THIS MORNING'S HIGH TIDE
(7-9AM). THERE MAY ALSO BE SOME VERY MINOR (SUB ADVISORY)
COASTAL FLOODING AROUND SOUNDS AND TIDAL WATERWAYS AROUND THE
CRYSTAL COAST DUE TO THE HIGHER ASTRONOMICAL TIDES.
AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS PERSIST ACROSS THE TERMINALS EARLY
THIS MORNING WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE. BRIEF
PERIOD OF LLWS POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL TERMINALS THE NEXT FEW HOURS
WITH A SE JET AT 40-45 KNOTS AROUND 2KFT. THIS JET WILL QUICKLY
SHIFT TO BE OUT OF THE SW BEHIND A WARM FRONT PROGRESSING
NORTHWARD. PERIODS OF RAIN WILL BRING VSBYS DOWN TO 3-5 SM
OCNL, WITH THUNDER THREAT MAINLY EAST OF THE TAF SITES THIS
MORNING, EXCEPT MRH. CIGS WILL BE SLOW TO LIFT TODAY, LIKELY
BECOMING MVFR BY LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON, AND VFR THIS
EVENING. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT, THOUGH COVERAGE AND CHANCES WILL BE
DEPENDENT BY HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER LINGERS THIS MORNING.
OUTLOOK (MON THROUGH THU): PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. BREEZY NW WINDS EXPECTED
MON.
MARINE
DROPPED GALES FOR NEARSHORE COASTAL WATERS, CONTINUES FOR SOME
OFFSHORE ZONES. SCAS CONTINUE FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND
SOUNDS. LATEST OBS SHOW S-SE WINDS 15-30 KT ACROSS THE WATERS,
WITH SEAS 6-12 FT. A WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE WATERS THIS MORNING, WITH WINDS VEERING AND BECOMING
SOUTHERLY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH BUT REMAIN
BREEZY TO STRONG THROUGH THE DAY. SCAS AND GALES CONTINUE FOR
THE WATERS AND SOUNDS. BREEZY TO STRONG S-SW WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TONIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT, BECOMING MORE WESTERLY EARLY MON
MORNING. SEAS 5-9 FT THIS EVENING WILL GRAD SUBSIDE TO 4-8 FT
EARLY MON.
FOR THE CONVECTION THREAT, STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
CONTAINING WATERSPOUTS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING OVER THE
GULF STREAM WATERS AS LOW PRES TRAVELS ALONG A SLOW MOVING WARM
FRONT. AFTER A BREAK IN STORMS MID MORNING, ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT, WITH PRECIPITATION FINALLY CLEARING
EASTWARD LATER TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK (MON THROUGH THU): BEHIND A COLD FRONT TONIGHT, GUSTY
WRLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP, WITH SCA CONDITIONS FOR MOST
OF THE SOUNDS AND NEARSHORE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING AND AFTERNOON. HIGH PRES EVENTUALLY BUILDS IN LATER MON
THROUGH MID WEEK, WITH WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISHING. ANOTHER FRONT
WILL PUSH THROUGH THE WATERS LATER IN THE WEEK, LIKELY THURSDAY.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NCZ047-081-092-
094-194>196-198-199-203>205.
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NCZ195-196-
199-203>205.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ204-205.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ131-230-231.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ135.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154-
156-158.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR AMZ180.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ182-184.
DISCUSSION...CQD/TL
AVIATION...CQD/TL
MARINE...CQD/TL
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