221
FXUS62 KMHX 111920
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
320 PM EDT SUN OCT 11 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
TORNADO WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 8PM.
LOWERED TD'S FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH DRIER AIR FILTERING
IN.
INCREASED TEMPS FOR WEDNESDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH A SEVERE THREAT OVERRUNS THE
CAROLINAS THROUGH EARLY EVENING. TORNADO WATCH CONTINUES FOR ENC
UNTIL 8PM.
2) DRYING CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS CONTINUING.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...A PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE CHARACTERIZED BY
2"+ PWATS AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD
THE CAROLINAS TO THE EAST OF AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT THROUGH
THIS EVENING. SPECIAL 11/18Z KMHX SOUNDING ANALYZED A RECORD
HIGH PW OF 2.37" THIS AFTERNOON. TORNADO WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL
8PM THIS EVENING AS THIS RICH TROPICAL AIRMASS IN TANDEM WITH
STRONG LOW LEVEL HELICITY WITH BACKED SFC FLOW WILL CONTINUE THE
TOR THREAT. OVERLAP OF BEST DYNAMICS AND SUPERCELL COVERAGE WILL
CONTINUE TO BE OVER THE INLAND COASTAL PLAIN COUNTIES, THOUGH A
TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT FURTHER EAST AS WELL THROUGH EARLY
THIS EVENING.
KEY MESSAGE 2...THE REMNANTS OF ISAIAS ARE FORECAST TO ROUND
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND MOVE OFF THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC
COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. DRIER AIR THEN MOVES IN BEHIND IT WITH
DRYING CONDITIONS DEVELOPING THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. WITH THE
DRIER AIR IN PLACE, OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE SEASONBLY COOL, BUT
BUILDING HTS WILL LEAD TO ABOVE CLIMO HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOW 80S EARLY IN THE WEEK, AND THEN EVEN HIGHER TEMPS IN
THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 INLAND BY MID WEEK. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
WITH HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP ANY RAIN CHANCES AWAY.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS CONT ACROSS ALL TERMINALS AS OF 19Z,
AND WILL BE SLOW TO LIFT THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON,
EVETUALLY BECOMING MVFR LATER THIS AFTERNOON, AND VFR THIS
EVENING. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
UPPER LOW MAY BRING A RETURN OF MVFR CIGS MON MORNING, BEFORE
LIFTING TO VFR THOUGH WITH STRATO CU LINGING THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY MON.
OUTLOOK (TUE THROUGH FRI): PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
MARINE
SCA'S IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE MARINE AREA, WITH THE SOUNDS
SEEING FIRST IMPROVEMENT LATER THIS EVENING INTO MON MORNING,
THEN EVENTUAL IMPROVING CONDITIONS WITH SEAS SUBSIDING BELOW 6
FT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS MON AFTERNOON. WINDS TURN FROM SWRLY
THIS EVENING TO WRLY THEN NWRLY ON MON.
FOR THE CONVECTION THREAT, STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
CONTAINING WATERSPOUTS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH MID EVENING BEFORE
COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH OVERNIGHT ENDING SEVERE THREAT.
OUTLOOK (TUE THROUGH FRI): HIGH PRES BUILDS IN TUE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH PLEASANT BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
ANOTHER FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE WATERS LATER IN THE WEEK,
LIKELY THURSDAY, THEN A STRONGER FRONT ON FRIDAY WITH SCA
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BEHIND IT.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ195-
196-199-203>205.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ204-205.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ135.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ150.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ152-154-156-
158.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ182-184.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ230-231.
DISCUSSION...CQD/TL
AVIATION...CQD/TL
MARINE...CQD/TL
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