757
FXUS62 KMHX 112105
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
505 PM EDT SUN OCT 11 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
TORNADO WATCH CANCELLED FOR ALL LAND AREAS AND MOST WATERS
OUTSIDE OF THE GULF STREAM.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SEVERE WEATHER WINDING DOWN FOR THE DAY
2) DRYING CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS CONTINUING.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...AREA IS MOSTLY WORKED OVER AND THE TORNADO
THREAT IS RAPIDLY DECREASING ALONG THE COAST. A WEAK, BRIEF WATERSPOUT
COMING ONSHORE CANNOT BE RULED OUT ALONG THE COAST THROUGH
EARLY THIS EVENING.
KEY MESSAGE 2...THE REMNANTS OF ISAIAS ARE FORECAST TO ROUND
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND MOVE OFF THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC
COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. DRIER AIR THEN MOVES IN BEHIND IT WITH
DRYING CONDITIONS DEVELOPING THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. WITH THE
DRIER AIR IN PLACE, OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE SEASONABLY COOL,
BUT BUILDING HTS WILL LEAD TO ABOVE CLIMO HIGH TEMPS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S EARLY IN THE WEEK, AND THEN EVEN HIGHER
TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 INLAND BY MID WEEK. MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES WITH HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP ANY RAIN CHANCES AWAY.
AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS CONT ACROSS ALL TERMINALS AS OF 19Z,
AND WILL BE SLOW TO LIFT THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON,
EVENTUALLY BECOMING MVFR LATER THIS AFTERNOON, AND VFR THIS
EVENING. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
UPPER LOW MAY BRING A RETURN OF MVFR CIGS MON MORNING, BEFORE
LIFTING TO VFR THOUGH WITH STRATO CU LINGERING THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY MON.
OUTLOOK (TUE THROUGH FRI): PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
MARINE
SCA'S IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE MARINE AREA, WITH THE SOUNDS
SEEING FIRST IMPROVEMENT LATER THIS EVENING INTO MON MORNING,
THEN EVENTUAL IMPROVING CONDITIONS WITH SEAS SUBSIDING BELOW 6
FT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS MON AFTERNOON. WINDS TURN FROM SWRLY
THIS EVENING TO WRLY THEN NWRLY ON MON.
FOR THE CONVECTION THREAT, STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
CONTAINING WATERSPOUTS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH MID EVENING BEFORE
COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH OVERNIGHT ENDING SEVERE THREAT.
OUTLOOK (TUE THROUGH FRI): HIGH PRES BUILDS IN TUE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH PLEASANT BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
ANOTHER FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE WATERS LATER IN THE WEEK,
LIKELY THURSDAY, THEN A STRONGER FRONT ON FRIDAY WITH SCA
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BEHIND IT.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ195-
196-199-203>205.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ204-205.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ135.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ150.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ152-154-156-
158.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ182-184.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ230-231.
DISCUSSION...CQD/TL/RJ
AVIATION...CQD/TL
MARINE...CQD/TL/RJ
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