179
FXUS62 KMHX 121546
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1146 AM EDT MON OCT 12 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ADJUSTED EXPIRATION TIME OF ACTIVE SCAS. SERN COASTAL WATERS WAS
ABLE TO BE DROPPED. CENTRAL AND NERN COASTAL WATERS WERE
EXTENDED INTO THIS EVENING.
KEY MESSAGES
1) DRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK.
2) A STRONG FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE WEEK INTO THE
FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER BEHIND THE
FRONT, ALONG WITH GUSTY N-NW WINDS WHICH COULD BRING DANGEROUS
MARINE CONDITIONS AND COASTAL IMPACTS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH OFFSHORE EARLY
THIS MORNING, WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST
THROUGH MOST OF THIS WEEK. TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE
WEEK AS HEIGHTS BUILD. BY MID TO LATE WEEK HIGHS WILL AGAIN BE
BACK INTO THE 80S FOR MOST OF THE AREA. A BACKDOOR FRONT MAY
IMPACT THE AREA THU, BUT AT THIS TIME JUST LOOKS TO BE A WIND
SHIFT.
KEY MESSAGE 2...A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR THE WEEKEND.
FRONT LOOKS MOISTURE STARVED, BUT COULD BRING SCT SHOWER
CHANCES. COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
THIS WEEKEND, FEELING LIKE FALL, WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S
AND LOWS IN THE 40S/50S. N-NW WINDS CONTINUE TO TREND A BIT
STRONGER BEHIND THE FRONT, WHICH COULD BRING DANGEROUS MARINE
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR COASTAL IMPACTS. THOUGH
TOO SOON FOR ANY SPECIFICS.
AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING. UPPER
TROUGH MOVING OFF THE COAST LATE MORNING COULD BRING A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS TO THE TERMINALS LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON, WITH BEST CHANCES AT PGV. NW WINDS WILL GUST 15-20 KT
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. PATCHY INLAND FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TUE MORNING, THOUGH TOO LOW CONFIDENCE TO
INCLUDE IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.
OUTLOOK (TUE THROUGH FRI): PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
MARINE
LATEST OBS SHOW NW WINDS GENERALLY 15-25G30KT WITH SEAS 4 TO 5FT.
COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH OFFSHORE. WINDS HAVE PEAKED,
BUT HAVE HUNG ON SLIGHTLY LONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST, SO
HAVE EXTENDED SCAS FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM OCRACOKE INLET NWARD
THROUGH SUNSET TONIGHT. WINDS GRAD DIMINISH AND VEER THROUGH
THE DAY. N-NE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TO 5-15 KT
TONIGHT WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 2-4 FT.
OUTLOOK (TUE THROUGH FRI): HIGH PRES BUILDS IN TUE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH PLEASANT BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
ANOTHER FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE WATERS LATER IN THE WEEK,
LIKELY THURSDAY, THEN A STRONGER FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT. STRONG
N-NNW WINDS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT THIS WEEKEND, AND COULD
SEE GALE AND/OR SCA CONDITIONS.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ150.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ152-
154.
DISCUSSION...CQD
AVIATION...CQD
MARINE...CQD/CEB
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