981
FXUS62 KMHX 122244
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
644 PM EDT MON OCT 12 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ADDED FOG TO GRIDS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MORNING TUE. QUIET AND
DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. AVIATION DISCO UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
1) DRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK.
2) A STRONG FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE WEEK INTO THE
FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER BEHIND THE
FRONT, ALONG WITH GUSTY N-NW WINDS WHICH COULD BRING DANGEROUS
MARINE CONDITIONS AND COASTAL IMPACTS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH
MOST OF THIS WEEK BEHIND THE COLD FRONT CONTINUING TO PUSH
OFFSHORE. TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE WEEK AS HEIGHTS
BUILD. BY MID TO LATE WEEK HIGHS WILL AGAIN BE BACK INTO THE
80S FOR MOST OF THE AREA. A BACKDOOR FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY CROSS
THE FA THU, BUT AT THIS TIME JUST LOOKS TO BE A WIND SHIFT WITH
THE COLUMN AHEAD OF, ALONG, AND NEAR THE FRONT BEING ALMOST
COMPLETELY DEVOID OF MOISTURE.
KEY MESSAGE 2...A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR THE WEEKEND.
FRONT LOOKS MOISTURE STARVED, BUT COULD BRING SCT SHOWER
CHANCES. COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
THIS WEEKEND, FEELING LIKE FALL, WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S
AND LOWS IN THE 40S/50S. N-NW WINDS CONTINUE TO TREND A BIT
STRONGER BEHIND THE FRONT, WHICH COULD BRING DANGEROUS MARINE
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR COASTAL IMPACTS FOR
VULNERABLE LOCATIONS ALONG OBX. THOUGH TOO SOON FOR ANY
SPECIFICS.
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR FLIGHT CATS PRESENT ACROSS ALL TAF SITES, THOUGH LOWER CLOUD
DECKS AND SOME CIGS AT MVFR LEVELS WILL PERSIST ACROSS NOBX
INTO THIS EVENING. NW WINDS WILL GUST 15-20 KT THIS AFTERNOON.
PATCHY INLAND FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TUE
MORNING. GUIDANCE IS NOT SOLD ON THIS BUT CLEAR SKIES AND WINDS
DECOUPLING AFTER SUNSET WILL ALLOW FOR STOUT RADIATIONAL
COOLING WHICH COULD LEAD TO SATURATION IN THE LOWEST LEVELS
EVIDENT IN THE 18Z TDS COMPARABLE TO TUE MORNING'S LOWS.
QUESTION IS WILL BE IF TODAY'S SUNSHINE IS ENOUGH TO COMPLETELY
DRY OUT THE RAIN RECEIVED OVER THE WEEKEND. HAVE INCLUDED MVFR
VIS FOR ALL TAF SITES IN THE EARLY MORNING WITH TEMPO IFR GROUPS
FOR EWN/OAJ WITH THEIR WEEKEND RAINFALL TOTALS DWARFING INLAND
SITES.
OUTLOOK (TUE THROUGH FRI): PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
MARINE
LATEST OBS SHOW NW WINDS GENERALLY 15-20 WITH SOME GUSTS<25KT
WITH SEAS 4 TO 6FT. COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH OFFSHORE.
WINDS GRAD DIMINISH AND VEER THROUGH THE DAY. N-NE WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TO 5-15 KT TONIGHT WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO
2-4 FT ALLOWING REMAINING SCAS FOR COASTAL WATERS N OF OCRACOKE
INLET TO EXPIRE AROUND OR JUST AFTER SUNSET.
OUTLOOK (TUE THROUGH FRI): HIGH PRES BUILDS IN TUE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH PLEASANT BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
ANOTHER FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE WATERS LATER IN THE WEEK,
LIKELY THURSDAY, THEN A STRONGER FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT. STRONG
N-NNW WINDS EXPECTED BEHIND THE SECOND FRONT THIS WEEKEND, AND
WILL LIKELY SEE SCA CONDITIONS WITH POTENTIAL FOR GALES ACROSS
COASTAL WATERS N OF CAPE HATT.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CQD/CEB
AVIATION...CQD/CEB
MARINE...CQD/CEB
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page