852
FXUS62 KMHX 122343
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
743 PM EDT MON OCT 12 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN DROPPED AT THIS TIME. QUIET
AND DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE WORK WEEK.
KEY MESSAGES
1) DRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK.
2) A STRONG FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE WEEK INTO THE
FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER BEHIND THE
FRONT, ALONG WITH GUSTY N-NW WINDS WHICH COULD BRING DANGEROUS
MARINE CONDITIONS AND COASTAL IMPACTS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH
MOST OF THIS WEEK BEHIND THE COLD FRONT CONTINUING TO PUSH
OFFSHORE. TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE WEEK AS HEIGHTS
BUILD. BY MID TO LATE WEEK HIGHS WILL AGAIN BE BACK INTO THE
80S FOR MOST OF THE AREA. A BACKDOOR FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY CROSS
THE FA THU, BUT AT THIS TIME JUST LOOKS TO BE A WIND SHIFT WITH
THE COLUMN AHEAD OF, ALONG, AND NEAR THE FRONT BEING ALMOST
COMPLETELY DEVOID OF MOISTURE.
KEY MESSAGE 2...A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR THE WEEKEND.
FRONT LOOKS MOISTURE STARVED, BUT COULD BRING SCT SHOWER
CHANCES. COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
THIS WEEKEND, FEELING LIKE FALL, WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S
AND LOWS IN THE 40S/50S. N-NW WINDS CONTINUE TO TREND A BIT
STRONGER BEHIND THE FRONT, WHICH COULD BRING DANGEROUS MARINE
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR COASTAL IMPACTS FOR
VULNERABLE LOCATIONS ALONG OBX. THOUGH TOO SOON FOR ANY
SPECIFICS.
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY AT ALL TERMINALS. MODELS AND CROSSOVER
TEMPERATURE ANALYSIS HINTING AT THE POSSIBILITY OF FOG,
PARTICULARLY AT KOAJ AND KEWN. GUIDANCE IS NOT SOLD ON THIS BUT
CLEAR SKIES AND WINDS DECOUPLING THIS EVENING WILL ALLOW FOR
STOUT RADIATIONAL COOLING WHICH COULD LEAD TO SATURATION IN THE
LOWEST LEVELS EVIDENT IN THE 18Z TDS COMPARABLE TO TUE MORNING'S
LOWS. EXPECT THE POSSIBILITY OF MVFR AT ALL SITES OUTSIDE OF
KMRH AROUND 9Z WITH A TEMPO FOR LIFR AT KOAJ AND KEWN.
OUTLOOK (TUE THROUGH FRI): PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
MARINE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN DROPPED AT THIS TIME.
OCCASIONAL SIX FOOT SEAS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO OVER
THE NORTHERN WATERS BUT SHOULD BE DROPPING OFF THIS EVENING AS
WINDS SUBSIDE. N-NE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TO 5-15 KT
TONIGHT WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 2-4 FT.
OUTLOOK (TUE THROUGH FRI): HIGH PRES BUILDS IN TUE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH PLEASANT BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
ANOTHER FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE WATERS LATER IN THE WEEK,
LIKELY THURSDAY, THEN A STRONGER FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT. STRONG
N-NNW WINDS EXPECTED BEHIND THE SECOND FRONT THIS WEEKEND, AND
WILL LIKELY SEE SCA CONDITIONS WITH POTENTIAL FOR GALES ACROSS
COASTAL WATERS N OF CAPE HATT.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CQD/CEB
AVIATION...RTE/CQD/CEB
MARINE...RTE/CQD/CEB
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