803
FXUS62 KMHX 130718
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
318 AM EDT TUE OCT 13 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
KEY MESSAGES
1) DRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK.
2) A STRONG FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE WEEK INTO THE
FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER BEHIND THE
FRONT, ALONG WITH GUSTY N-NW WINDS WHICH COULD BRING DANGEROUS
MARINE CONDITIONS AND COASTAL IMPACTS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH
MOST OF THIS WEEK. TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE WEEK
AS HEIGHTS BUILD. BY MID TO LATE WEEK HIGHS WILL AGAIN BE BACK
INTO THE 80S FOR MOST OF THE AREA. A BACKDOOR FRONT WILL
EVENTUALLY CROSS THE FA THU, BUT AT THIS TIME JUST LOOKS TO BE A
WIND SHIFT WITH THE COLUMN AHEAD OF, ALONG, AND NEAR THE FRONT
BEING ALMOST COMPLETELY DEVOID OF MOISTURE.
KEY MESSAGE 2...A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR THE WEEKEND.
FRONT LOOKS MOISTURE STARVED, BUT COULD BRING SCT SHOWER
CHANCES. COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
THIS WEEKEND, FEELING LIKE FALL, WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S
AND LOWS IN THE 40S/50S. N-NW WINDS CONTINUE TO TREND A BIT
STRONGER BEHIND THE FRONT, WHICH COULD BRING DANGEROUS MARINE
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR COASTAL IMPACTS.
THOUGH TOO SOON FOR ANY SPECIFICS.
AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ALLOW FOR AMPLE RADIATIONAL
COOLING AND FOG FORMATION EARLY THIS MORNING. LATEST OBS SHOW
THAT VSBY IS ALREADY BEING IMPACTED AT EWN, PGV AND OAJ.
REMAINING TERMINALS WILL LIKELY SEE IFR VSBYS BY 10Z. FOG
SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 13Z, THEN VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE 06Z/13 TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
BUILD INTO THE AREA. LIGHT WINDS FORECAST.
OUTLOOK (WED THROUGH SAT): PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
MARINE
LATEST OBS SHOW VARIABLE WINDS 5-10 KT WITH SEAS MAINLY 2-4 FT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD WESTWARD OVER THE WATERS
TODAY AND TONIGHT. NW-NE WINDS BECOME SSW THIS EVENING AND 5-15
KT OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK (WED THROUGH SAT): HIGH PRES BUILDS THROUGH MID-WEEK
WITH PLEASANT BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED. A BACKDOOR FRONT
WILL PUSH THROUGH THE WATERS THURSDAY, THEN A STRONGER FRONT
FRIDAY NIGHT. STRONG N-NNW WINDS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT
THIS WEEKEND, AND WILL LIKELY SEE SCA CONDITIONS WITH POTENTIAL
FOR GALES, ALONG WITH 6 FT+ SEAS.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CQD/CEB
AVIATION...AKQ/CQD
MARINE...CQD/CEB
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