962
FXUS62 KMHX 132348
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
748 PM EDT TUE OCT 13 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION DISCO UPDATED.
PREVIOUS UPDATE...CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR POSSIBLE
RECORD HIGHS WED THROUGH FRI. RAISED MAX TEMPS THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEK. INCREASED WINDS A BIT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) DRY WITH RECORD HEAT POSSIBLE REST OF THIS WEEK.
2) A STRONG AND MOSTLY MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING. DRASTICALLY COOLER AND DRIER
WEATHER BEHIND THE FRONT, ALONG WITH GUSTY N-NW WINDS WHICH
COULD BRING A PERIOD OF DANGEROUS MARINE CONDITIONS AND MINOR
COASTAL IMPACTS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH
MOST OF THIS WEEK WITH SUNNY SKIES. BUILDING HTS AS UPPER RIDGE
STRENGTHENS SENDS TEMPS SOARING THROUGH THE 80S AND NEARING 90
FOR SOME INTERIOR LOCALES (RECORD HIGH CLIMATE SECTION BELOW).
A BACK DOOR FRONT MOVES INTO NRN PARTS OF ENC LATER THUR, BUT
QUICKLY RETREATS NORTH BY EARLY FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER SURGE OF
SWRLY FLOW AHEAD OF MUCH STRONGER FRONT. NO MOISTURE WITH THE
BACKDOOR FRONT, AND ONLY TEMPORARY REDUCTIONS IN TEMPS FOR NRN
1/3 OF ENC.
KEY MESSAGE 2...THE AFOREMENTIONED MUCH STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL
SWEEP THROUGH ENC FRIDAY NIGHT, AND GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT WITH
THIS SYSTEM. FRONT STILL APPEARS MOISTURE STARED DUE TO IT'S
VERY FAST MOVEMENT AND NO CONNECTION TO THE GULF. STRONG FORCING
IS ASSOCIATED WITH IT HOWEVER, SO A SKINNY LINE OF SHOWERS MAY
DROP ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS AT BEST FOR MOST AREAS IN THE SPAN OF
LESS THAN AN HOUR FRI EVENING. COOLEST AND DRIEST AIRMASS
FOR THE FALL SEASON THUS FAR BUILDS IN BEHIND THIS FRONT WITH
TEMPS TAKING A NOSEDIVE WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND LOWS IN THE
40S (INLAND) AND 50S (BEACHES).
WITH THIS STRONG FRONT, WINDS RAPIDLY INC FROM THE NW FRI
EVENING WITH A SHORT PERIOD OF GALES FOR MOST OF THE WATERS AND
SOUNDS, AND WOULD BRING A SHARP INCREASE IN HIGH SEAS ESPECIALLY
ON SAT AS THE WINDS TURN NORTHERLY AND PERSIST TO NEAR GALES ON
THE COASTAL WATERS. MINOR COASTAL IMPACTS COULD OCCUR TOO,
THOUGH SHORT DURATION OF STRONGEST WINDS MAY ACT TO LIMIT MORE
APPRECIABLE IMPACTS. IT'S STILL TOO SOON FOR SPECIFICS ON
COASTAL FLOODING POTENTIAL.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR FLIGHT CATS WITH SKC CURRENTLY. ONLY FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS
WOULD COME FROM FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT, WITH THE WINDS BEING
THE CONTROLLING FACTOR, BUT IT IS NOT A SLAM DUNK CASE EITHER
WAY FOR DECOUPLED VS MIXING. BACKGROUND WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
LIGHT OUT OF THE SW ALL NIGHT WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED
JUST OFF THE CRYSTAL COAST AND RELATIVELY STRONGER SFC CENTERED
FURTHER W NEAR THE APPS. BIGGEST QUESTION WILL BE IF THE LOW
LEVELS WILL DECOUPLE FOR LONG ENOUGH OF A DURATION TO ALLOW THE
STAGNANT AIR TO SATURATE. NOT A SINGLE PIECE OF GUIDANCE SHOWS
WINDS DECOUPLED FOR MORE THAN AN HR OR TWO. HOWEVER, OAJ, ISO,
OCW, AND DPL ARE CURRENTLY SHOWING CALM WINDS. HAVE INCLUDED 6SM
MIFG PREVAILING FOR TAF SITES THAT HAVE THE HIGHEST TDS
CURRENTLY AND HAVE INCLUDED TEMPO MVFR LINES FOR TAF SITES THAT
HAS THE GREATEST CHANCE OF SEEING WINDS AOB 2KT THROUGH THE
ENTIRE OVERNIGHT. VFR ALL DAY WITH LIGHT SWERLY WINDS AND SKC
WED.
OUTLOOK (THU THROUGH SUN): PRED VFR CONDITIONS CONT WITH HIGH
PRES NEARBY. STRONG COLD FRONT BRINGS BRIEF SHOWERS FRI EVENING,
ALONG WITH GUSTY SWRLY WINDS AHEAD OF IT IN THE AFTERNOON WITH
GUSTS UPWARDS OF AROUND 20 KT, THEN STRONGER NWRLY GUSTS TO
NEARLY 30 KT BRIEFLY BEHIND IT FRIDAY NIGHT. WINDS DIMINISH SAT
AND ESP SUN WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING IN.
MARINE
LATEST OBS SHOW LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS AROUND ~5 KT MOST LOCALES
WITH SEAS MAINLY 1-3 FT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE NEARBY
TONIGHT THOUGH EASE OFFSHORE ALLOWING FOR PREDOM SWRLY FLOW BUT
NO HIGHER THAN 5-10 KT. SWRLY BREEZES CONT FOR WED WITH SPEEDS
OF 5-15 KT AND SEAS CONT 1-3 FT.
OUTLOOK (THU THROUGH SUN): HIGH PRES CONT WITH GOOD BOATING
CONDITIONS INTO FRI. A BACKDOOR FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE
WATERS THURSDAY BRIEFLY BRINGING NERLY WINDS TO NRN WATERS AND
SOUNDS, THEN RETREATS THUR NIGHT WITH SWRLY WINDS ENSUING. A
STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING, WITH SWRLY
WINDS AHEAD OF IT INC TO 10-20 KT FRI AFTERNOON, THEN SWITCHING
RAPIDLY TO NW BEHIND THE FRONT AND GUSTING 25-35 KT. WILL LIKELY
SEE BURST OF GALE FORCE WINDS FOR THE WATERS AND SOUNDS, THEN
EASING TO NEAR GALES, ESP FOR THE COASTAL WATERS, LATE FRI NIGHT
INTO SAT. SEAS RESPOND TO THE HIGH WINDS BY BUILDING 6+ FT.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPS FOR 10/14 (WEDNESDAY)
LOCATION TEMP/YEAR
NEW BERN 86/1975 (KEWN ASOS)
CAPE HATTERAS 84/1986 (KHSE ASOS)
GREENVILLE 89/1919 (COOP - NOT KPGV AWOS)
MOREHEAD CITY 86/1990 (COOP - NOT KMRH ASOS)
KINSTON 87/1975 (COOP - NOT KISO AWOS)
JACKSONVILLE 88/1975 (NCA ASOS)
RECORD HIGH TEMPS FOR 10/15 (THURSDAY)
LOCATION TEMP/YEAR
NEW BERN 88/1935 (KEWN ASOS)
CAPE HATTERAS 84/1919 (KHSE ASOS)
GREENVILLE 89/1985 (COOP - NOT KPGV AWOS)
MOREHEAD CITY 86/1990 (COOP - NOT KMRH ASOS)
KINSTON 89/1985 (COOP - NOT KISO AWOS)
JACKSONVILLE 90/1975 (NCA ASOS)
RECORD HIGH TEMPS FOR 10/16 (FRIDAY)
LOCATION TEMP/YEAR
NEW BERN 86/1975 (KEWN ASOS)
CAPE HATTERAS 83/1919 (KHSE ASOS)
GREENVILLE 90/1968 (COOP - NOT KPGV AWOS)
MOREHEAD CITY 84/1917 (COOP - NOT KMRH ASOS)
KINSTON 86/2008 (COOP - NOT KISO AWOS)
JACKSONVILLE 88/1975 (NCA ASOS)
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...TL
AVIATION...TL/CEB
MARINE...TL
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