917
FXUS62 KMHX 140546
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
146 AM EDT WED OCT 14 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO MAJOR CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE. CONFIDENCE IN
HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS INCREASING SATURDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) DRY WITH RECORD HEAT POSSIBLE REST OF THIS WEEK.
2) A STRONG AND MOSTLY MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. DRASTICALLY COOLER AND DRIER
WEATHER BEHIND THE FRONT, ALONG WITH GUSTY N-NW WINDS WHICH
COULD BRING A PERIOD OF DANGEROUS MARINE CONDITIONS AND MINOR
COASTAL IMPACTS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH
MOST OF THIS WEEK WITH SUNNY SKIES. BUILDING HTS AS UPPER RIDGE
STRENGTHENS SENDS TEMPS SOARING THROUGH THE 80S AND NEARING 90
FOR SOME INTERIOR LOCALES (RECORD HIGH CLIMATE SECTION BELOW).
A BACK DOOR FRONT MOVES INTO NRN PARTS OF ENC LATER THUR WITH
SOME INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS BEHIND
IT, BUT QUICKLY RETREATS NORTH BY EARLY FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER
SURGE OF SWRLY FLOW AHEAD OF MUCH STRONGER FRONT. NO MOISTURE
WITH THE BACKDOOR FRONT, AND ONLY TEMPORARY REDUCTIONS IN TEMPS
FOR NRN 1/3 OF ENC.
KEY MESSAGE 2...THE AFOREMENTIONED MUCH STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL
SWEEP THROUGH ENC FRIDAY NIGHT, AND GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT WITH
THIS SYSTEM. FRONT STILL APPEARS MOISTURE STARED DUE TO IT'S
VERY FAST MOVEMENT AND NO CONNECTION TO THE GULF. STRONG FORCING
IS ASSOCIATED WITH IT HOWEVER, SO A SKINNY LINE OF SHOWERS MAY
DROP ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS AT BEST FOR MOST AREAS IN THE SPAN OF
LESS THAN AN HOUR FRI EVENING. COOLEST AND DRIEST AIRMASS
FOR THE FALL SEASON THUS FAR BUILDS IN BEHIND THIS FRONT WITH
TEMPS TAKING A NOSEDIVE WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND LOWS IN THE
40S (INLAND) AND 50S (BEACHES).
WITH THIS STRONG FRONT, WINDS RAPIDLY INC FROM THE NW FRI
EVENING WITH A SHORT PERIOD OF GALES FOR MOST OF THE WATERS AND
SOUNDS, AND WOULD BRING A SHARP INCREASE IN HIGH SEAS ESPECIALLY
ON SAT AS THE WINDS TURN NORTHERLY AND PERSIST TO NEAR GALES ON
THE COASTAL WATERS. MODEL CONSISTENCY AND HIGH ENSEMBLE PROBS
RESULT IN AN INCREASING CONFIDENCE ON THE STRONGER WINDS AND
HIGHER SEAS, ALTHOUGH EXACT TIMING AND STRENGTH IS STILL UNCLEAR
WITH MINIMAL HI-RES GUIDANCE AVAILABLE DURING THE TIME PERIOD. MINOR
COASTAL IMPACTS COULD OCCUR TOO, THOUGH SHORT DURATION OF
STRONGEST WINDS MAY ACT TO LIMIT MORE APPRECIABLE IMPACTS. IT'S
STILL TOO SOON FOR SPECIFICS ON COASTAL FLOODING POTENTIAL.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR FLIGHT CATS WITH SKC CURRENTLY. ONLY FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS
WOULD COME FROM SHALLOW FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT, WITH THE
WINDS BEING THE CONTROLLING FACTOR, BUT IT IS NOT A SLAM DUNK
CASE EITHER WAY FOR DECOUPLED VS MIXING. BACKGROUND WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE LIGHT OUT OF THE SW ALL NIGHT WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE LOCATED JUST OFF THE CRYSTAL COAST AND RELATIVELY
STRONGER SFC CENTERED FURTHER W NEAR THE APPS. BIGGEST QUESTION
WILL BE IF THE LOW LEVELS WILL DECOUPLE FOR LONG ENOUGH OF A
DURATION TO ALLOW THE STAGNANT AIR TO SATURATE. NOT A SINGLE
PIECE OF GUIDANCE SHOWS WINDS DECOUPLED FOR MORE THAN AN HR OR
TWO. HOWEVER, AN INCREASING NUMBER OF SITES ARE SHOWING CALM
WINDS, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF HWY 70. HAVE KEPT TEMPO MVFR LINES
FOR TAF SITES THAT HAS THE GREATEST CHANCE OF SEEING WINDS AOB
2KT THROUGH THE ENTIRE OVERNIGHT. VFR ALL DAY WEDNESDAY WITH
LIGHT SWERLY WINDS AND SKC.
OUTLOOK (THU THROUGH SUN): PRED VFR CONDITIONS CONT WITH HIGH
PRES NEARBY. STRONG COLD FRONT BRINGS BRIEF SHOWERS FRI EVENING,
ALONG WITH GUSTY SWRLY WINDS AHEAD OF IT IN THE AFTERNOON WITH
GUSTS UPWARDS OF AROUND 20 KT, THEN STRONGER NWRLY GUSTS TO
NEARLY 30 KT BRIEFLY BEHIND IT FRIDAY NIGHT. WINDS DIMINISH SAT
AND ESP SUN WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING IN.
MARINE
LATEST OBS SHOW SW WINDS 5-10 KNOTS MOST LOCALES WITH SEAS
MAINLY 1-3 FT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ALLOWING FOR PREDOM
SWRLY FLOW BUT NO HIGHER THAN 5-10 KT THROUGH THE MORNING.
SWRLY BREEZES CONT FOR WED/WED NIGHT WITH SPEEDS OF 5-15 KT AND
SEAS CONT 1-3 FT.
OUTLOOK (THU THROUGH SUN): HIGH PRES CONT WITH GOOD BOATING
CONDITIONS INTO FRI. A BACKDOOR FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE
WATERS THURSDAY BRIEFLY BRINGING NERLY WINDS TO NRN WATERS AND
SOUNDS, THEN RETREATS THUR NIGHT WITH SWRLY WINDS ENSUING. A
STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING, WITH SWRLY
WINDS AHEAD OF IT INC TO 10-20 KT FRI AFTERNOON, THEN SWITCHING
RAPIDLY TO NW BEHIND THE FRONT AND GUSTING 30-40 KT. WILL
LIKELY SEE BURST OF GALE FORCE WINDS FOR THE WATERS AND SOUNDS,
THEN EASING TO NEAR GALES, ESP FOR THE COASTAL WATERS, LATE FRI
NIGHT INTO SAT. SEAS RESPOND TO THE HIGH WINDS BY BUILDING 6+
FT.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPS FOR 10/14 (WEDNESDAY)
LOCATION TEMP/YEAR
NEW BERN 86/1975 (KEWN ASOS)
CAPE HATTERAS 84/1986 (KHSE ASOS)
GREENVILLE 89/1919 (COOP - NOT KPGV AWOS)
MOREHEAD CITY 86/1990 (COOP - NOT KMRH ASOS)
KINSTON 87/1975 (COOP - NOT KISO AWOS)
JACKSONVILLE 88/1975 (NCA ASOS)
RECORD HIGH TEMPS FOR 10/15 (THURSDAY)
LOCATION TEMP/YEAR
NEW BERN 88/1935 (KEWN ASOS)
CAPE HATTERAS 84/1919 (KHSE ASOS)
GREENVILLE 89/1985 (COOP - NOT KPGV AWOS)
MOREHEAD CITY 86/1990 (COOP - NOT KMRH ASOS)
KINSTON 89/1985 (COOP - NOT KISO AWOS)
JACKSONVILLE 90/1975 (NCA ASOS)
RECORD HIGH TEMPS FOR 10/16 (FRIDAY)
LOCATION TEMP/YEAR
NEW BERN 86/1975 (KEWN ASOS)
CAPE HATTERAS 83/1919 (KHSE ASOS)
GREENVILLE 90/1968 (COOP - NOT KPGV AWOS)
MOREHEAD CITY 84/1917 (COOP - NOT KMRH ASOS)
KINSTON 86/2008 (COOP - NOT KISO AWOS)
JACKSONVILLE 88/1975 (NCA ASOS)
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...TL/RJ
AVIATION...TL/RJ
MARINE...TL/RJ
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