871
FXUS62 KMHX 150215
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1015 PM EDT WED OCT 14 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NEW BERN (KEWN) BROKE A RECORD HIGH TODAY. SEE REREWN FOR MORE
INFO. TWO SEPARATE HOT SPOTS WERE OBSERVED ON SATELLITE EARLIER
TODAY, INDICATING SOME FIRE ACTIVITY OVER SWERN ZONES. FIRST IN
DUPLIN COUNTY, W OF RICHLANDS. SECOND WAS IN NE ONSLOW COUNTY.
SMOKE PLUME WAS THINNING AROUND SUNSET AND WAS NEVER DENSE
ENOUGH TO SHOW ON RADAR, SO HAVE NOT ADDED SMOKE TO GRIDS.
PREVIOUS UPDATE...AVIATION DISCO UPDATED. INCREASED POPS
MARKEDLY FOR SATURDAY. CONFIDENCE IN DANGEROUS MARINE CONDITIONS
INCREASING FOR THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
KEY MESSAGES
1) DRY WITH RECORD HEAT POSSIBLE THROUGH FRIDAY.
2) A TREND TOWARDS A MUCH WETTER SATURDAY THAN PREVIOUSLY
THOUGHT WITH SLOW MOVING FRONT AND LOW PRES FORMING ALONG IT
BRINGING GUSTY WINDS AND RAIN.
3) DRASTICALLY COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT AND LOW FOR SUNDAY,
ALONG WITH CONTINUED BREEZY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS.
MARINE: PROLONGED LARGE SEAS INTO NEXT WEEK AS OFFSHORE FRONT
STALLS WITH LONG PERIOD FETCH OF EASTERLY SWELL AND POSSIBLE LOW
PRES DEVELOPMENT OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH
MOST OF THIS WEEK WITH SUNNY SKIES. BUILDING HTS AS UPPER RIDGE
STRENGTHENS SENDS TEMPS SOARING THROUGH THE 80S AND NEARING 90
FOR SOME INTERIOR LOCALES (RECORD HIGH CLIMATE SECTION BELOW).
A BACK DOOR FRONT MOVES INTO NRN PARTS OF ENC LATER THUR WITH
SOME INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS BEHIND
IT, BUT QUICKLY RETREATS NORTH BY EARLY FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER
SURGE OF SWRLY FLOW AHEAD OF MUCH STRONGER FRONT. NO MOISTURE
WITH THE BACKDOOR FRONT, AND ONLY TEMPORARY REDUCTIONS IN TEMPS
FOR NRN 1/3 OF ENC.
KEY MESSAGE 2...A TREND TOWARDS A SLOWER FRONTAL ARRIVAL AND
PROGRESSION, WITH LOW PRES DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE ON
SATURDAY. FOLLOWED CLOSELY TO THE ECM, WHICH HAS BEEN SETTING
THIS TREND OVER THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS, WITH THE 14/12Z
CONTINUING THIS WET TREND WITH HIGH POPS, BUT RATHER LOW QPF
WHICH IS TYPICAL WITH ANA FRONTS, WHERE STRATIFORM RAIN FOLLOWS
THE SFC FRONT. GFS IS NOW AN OUTLIER, WITH MOST OF THE GLOBAL
MODEL SUITE ON BOARD WITH THE WETTER TREND, SO IT HAS BEEN
DISCOUNTED. COLD FRONT FINALLY PASSES THROUGH THE COAST AROUND
12Z SAT MORNING, THUS FRI NIGHT STILL QUITE MILD IN SWRLY FLOW.
NON-DIURNAL TEMP TREND SAT WITH TEMPS COOLING THROUGH THE DAY
WITH RAIN, CLOUDS, AND STRENGTHENING NRLY WINDS.
REGARDING THE WINDS, MODEL TRENDS HAVE ALSO TRENDED UPWARDS WITH
WINDS, WITH GALES IN FREQUENT GUSTS NOW LIKELY FOR MOST MARINE
ZONES INCLUDING THE SOUNDS, AND FAVORABLY ALIGNED ALLIGATOR
RIVER, AS ECM PROBS FOR THESE GALES NOW OVER 80%. WINDS ADV
CRITERIA FCST FOR THE OBX ZONES, AS WELL AS PERHAPS PORTIONS OF
THE ADJACENT COASTAL MAINLAND. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR MINOR
COASTAL FLOOD CONCERNS FOR SRN PORTIONS OF PAMLICO SOUND AND THE
COASTAL AREAS OF THE OBX.
KEY MESSAGE 3...COOLEST AND DRIEST AIRMASS FOR THE FALL SEASON
THUS FAR BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT SAT NIGHT AND BEYOND WITH
TEMPS TAKING A NOSEDIVE WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND LOWS IN THE
40S (INLAND) AND 50S (BEACHES). HOWEVER, DEPENDING HOW OFFSHORE
THE FRONT MAKES IT, COULD KEEP THINGS A BIT MILDER THAN FCST IF
SOME CLOUDS ADVECT IN FROM OFFSHORE KEEPING THE NIGHTTIME MINS
A BIT WARMER THAN ADVERTISED.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR SKC CONTINUES WITH LIGHT SWRLY BREEZES. NO GUIDANCE SHOWS
ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT WITH ALL MODEL SUITES SHOWING WINDS
REMAINING AOA 2-3KT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. NATURALLY, ISO, OCW,
AND DPL ARE SHOWING THAT THE WINDS HAVE DECOUPLED. SHOULD THE
WINDS REMAIN DECOUPLED, FOG DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE WHICH
COULD LEAD TO FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS DUE TO VIS. GIVEN HOW POORLY
MODELS HAVE DONE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR WINDS TO DECOUPLE
OVERNIGHT, HAVE ADDED A TEMPO MVFR VIS GROUP FOR OAJ. THAT SITE
HAS THE BEST CHANCE FOR WINDS TO DECOUPLE LONG ENOUGH, PLUS
THERE WAS A FIRE NW OF THE TERMINAL IN DUPLIN COUNTY AS WELL AS
ONE NE OF THE TERMINAL. SMOKE PLUME WAS NEVER DENSE ENOUGH TO
SHOW ON RADAR, AND VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWED THE PLUME WAS
THINNING JUST BEFORE SUNSET. DID NOT INCLUDE FU IN THE TAFS
BECAUSE OF THIS, BUT LINGERING SMOKE COULD AID FOG
DEVELOPMENT/FURTHER DAMPEN VIS SHOULD WINDS DECOUPLE. A DRY
BACKDOOR FRONT SAGS INTO THE FA THU FROM N TO S THROUGH THE DAY
TOMORROW BEFORE BRIEFLY STALLING SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE PAMLICO
AND NEUSE RIVERS OVERNIGHT. NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED, MOSTLY JUST A
WIND SHIFT AND MAYBE SOME INCREASED CLOUD COVERAGE ALONG AND
NEAR THE FRONT. FLIGHT CATS STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR DESPITE
THE FRONT THROUGH DAYLIGHT HOURS THU.
OUTLOOK (FRI THROUGH MON): PRED VFR CONDITIONS CONT FRIDAY WITH
SWRLY BREEZES INC AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. STRONG AND SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT BRINGS WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN ON SAT, WITH SUB VFR LIKELY
BEHIND THE FRONT LATER SAT WITH FRONTAL INVERSION DEVELOPING,
ALONG WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS THROUGH THE DAY SAT. CLEARING SKIES
SAT NIGHT WITH WINDS TAPERING OFF AS HIGH PRES ATTEMPTS TO BUILD
IN FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
MARINE
LATEST OBS SHOW SW WINDS 5-10 KNOTS MOST LOCALES WITH SEAS
MAINLY 1-3 FT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO THE NORTH ALLOWING
FOR PREDOM SWRLY FLOW BUT NO HIGHER THAN 5-15 KT TONIGHT WITH
SOME GUSTS NEARING 15 KT. BACKDOOR FRONT OOZES THROUGH THE
NRN WATERS AND SOUND ON THU, THOUGH DOES NOT MAKE IT PAST
PAMLICO SOUND. TO THE NORTH OF THE BNDRY, NERLY BREEZES EXPECTED
THOUGH REMAINING LIGHT, AND TO THE SOUTH, GENERALLY SWRLY TO
SRLY CONTINUED LIGHT FLOW.
OUTLOOK (FRI THROUGH MON): A STRONG COLD FRONT HAS TRENDED
SLOWER, NOW NOT EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE WATERS UNTIL SAT. STRONG
NRLY WINDS DEVELOP IN IT'S WAKE ON SAT, PEAKING LATER AFTERNOON
THROUGH SAT EVENING WITH GALES APPEARING LIKELY FOR ALL COASTAL
WATERS AND MOST OF THE SOUNDS INCLUDING ALLIGATOR RIVER. SEAS
BUILD QUICKLY AS WELL, WITH SEAS OF 6-11 FT APPEARING MORE
LIKELY THROUGH THE WEEKEND, ONLY EASING SLIGHTLY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH SCA CONDITIONS APPEARING LIKELY SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH STOUT NERLY BREEZES AND CONT LARGE SWELL.
TREND FROM THE AIFS (EURO AI) INDICATES LOW PRES DEVELOPMENT
OFF THE SOUTHEAST US COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK, WHICH MAY BRING
WINDS TO NEAR GALES AND CONTINUE VERY LARGE SEAS OVER 10 FT, AND
WILL CONT TO MONITOR THIS POTENTIAL OVER THE COMING DAYS.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPS FOR 10/15 (THURSDAY)
LOCATION TEMP/YEAR
NEW BERN 88/1935 (KEWN ASOS)
CAPE HATTERAS 84/1919 (KHSE ASOS)
GREENVILLE 89/1985 (COOP - NOT KPGV AWOS)
MOREHEAD CITY 86/1990 (COOP - NOT KMRH ASOS)
KINSTON 89/1985 (COOP - NOT KISO AWOS)
JACKSONVILLE 90/1975 (NCA ASOS)
RECORD HIGH TEMPS FOR 10/16 (FRIDAY)
LOCATION TEMP/YEAR
NEW BERN 86/1975 (KEWN ASOS)
CAPE HATTERAS 83/1919 (KHSE ASOS)
GREENVILLE 90/1968 (COOP - NOT KPGV AWOS)
MOREHEAD CITY 84/1917 (COOP - NOT KMRH ASOS)
KINSTON 86/2008 (COOP - NOT KISO AWOS)
JACKSONVILLE 88/1975 (NCA ASOS)
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...TL/CEB
AVIATION...CEB
MARINE...TL/RJ
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