472
FXUS62 KMHX 160007
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
807 PM EDT THU OCT 15 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ABOVE AVERAGE UNCERTAINTY IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A COASTAL LOW
OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM PUSHES THROUGH THE
AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. GALE WATCH IS IN
EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT FOR
MOST OF THE COASTAL WATERS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) DRY WITH RECORD HEAT POSSIBLE THROUGH FRIDAY.
2) COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY, FORMING A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OFFSHORE.
3) DRASTICALLY COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT AND LOW FOR SUNDAY,
ALONG WITH CONTINUED BREEZY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS.
MARINE: GALE WATCH IN EFFECT ALONG WITH PROLONGED LARGE SEAS
THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK AS OFFSHORE FRONT STALLS WITH LONG
PERIOD FETCH OF NORTHEASTERLY SWELL AND INCREASING CHANCES OF
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH
MOST OF THIS WEEK WITH SUNNY SKIES. BUILDING HTS AS UPPER RIDGE
STRENGTHENS SENDS TEMPS SOARING THROUGH THE 80S AND NEARING 90
FOR SOME INTERIOR LOCALES (RECORD HIGH CLIMATE SECTION BELOW).
A DRY BACK DOOR FRONT IS TAKING ITS TIME MOVING INTO NRN PARTS
OF ENC LATER TODAY KEEPING MOST LOCATIONS IN THE WARM SECTOR
TODAY WITH SOME INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPS FOR EXTREME NORTHERN LOCALES. THE FRONT QUICKLY RETREATS
NORTH BY EARLY FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER SURGE OF SWRLY FLOW AHEAD OF
MUCH STRONGER FRONT.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ABOVE AVERAGE IN REGARDS TO A COASTAL LOW
FORMING ALONG THE COLD FRONT WHICH WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. WHILE THERE ARE
STILL THREE MAIN CAMPS AS FAR AS SOLUTIONS GO, CONFIDENCE IS
TRENDING UP THAT A COASTAL LOW WILL FORM. THE LOCATION AND
STRENGTH OF THAT LOW REMAINS IN SOME QUESTION.
ONCE THE LOW FORMS OUT OVER THE GULF STREAM THERE ARE THREE MAIN
STEERING PATHS THAT MODELS ARE HINTING AT RIGHT NOW. THE MOST
LIKELY SCENARIO AT THIS TIME IS THAT THE LOW FORMS AND STAYS
OVER THE GULF STREAM PICKING UP STRENGTHS AS IT DOES SO BUT
REMAINS IN A FAIRLY CONSTANT LONGITUDINAL RANGE OFFSHORE. MOST
EPS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AND SOME DETERMINISTIC MODELS SUCH AS THE
ICON, CMC AND OTHERS FALL INTO THIS CAMP BUT THERE IS STILL
CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN THE LOCATION AND INTENSITY DETAILS.
OTHER MEMBERS ALONG WITH THE EC-AIFS MODEL DEVELOP THE LOW RIGHT
ALONG THE COAST AND HOLD IT THERE FOR A MUCH MORE PROLONGED
EVENT. THIS SCENARIO WOULD LIKELY HAVE THE HIGHEST IMPACTS TO
COASTAL AREAS OF EASTERN NC WITH SEVERAL DAYS OF STRONG WINDS
AND HIGH WAVES.
FINALLY, THE GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS REMAIN AN OUTLIER IN
EITHER NOT DEVELOPING A LOW AT ALL OR DEVELOPING IT MUCH LATER
AND MUCH FURTHER EAST THAN ANY OF THE OTHER SCENARIOS. THIS
REMAINS THE LEAST LIKELY TO OCCUR AT THIS TIME.
REGARDLESS OF WHICH SCENARIO PLAYS OUT, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE
OF MARINE IMPACTS, AND POTENTIAL FOR WAVES 7+ FT REACHING
PORTIONS OF THE OBX. WINDS ADVISORY POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR THE
OBX ZONES, AS WELL AS PERHAPS PORTIONS OF THE ADJACENT COASTAL
MAINLAND. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOOD CONCERNS
FOR SRN PORTIONS OF PAMLICO SOUND AND THE COASTAL AREAS OF THE
OBX WITH THE SUSTAINED NE FLOW.
KEY MESSAGE 3...COOLEST AND DRIEST AIRMASS FOR THE FALL SEASON
THUS FAR BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT SAT NIGHT AND BEYOND WITH
TEMPS TAKING A NOSEDIVE WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND LOWS IN THE
40S (INLAND) AND 50S (BEACHES). HOWEVER, DEPENDING HOW OFFSHORE
THE FRONT MAKES IT, COULD KEEP THINGS A BIT MILDER THAN FCST IF
SOME CLOUDS ADVECT IN FROM OFFSHORE KEEPING THE NIGHTTIME MINS
A BIT WARMER THAN ADVERTISED.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE TO HIGH OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SLOWLY SOUTHWEST
THROUGH ENC THIS EVENING, POTENTIALLY REACHING AS FAR AS KOAJ
BEFORE STALLING. INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL THEN FORCE IT TO
MOVE BACK NORTH OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. BEHIND THE
FRONT, AN AREA OF MVFR CIGS HAS DEVELOPED AND THIS IS EXPECTED
TO IMPACT KPGV AND KISO, BUT MAY ALSO REACH AS FAR AS KEWN AND
KMRH. CIGS WILL QUICKLY IMPROVE ONCE THE FRONT MOVES BACK NORTH,
BUT GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON HOW QUICKLY THIS TRANSITION WILL OCCUR.
ONCE THE FRONT IS TO THE NORTH OF ANY TAF SITE, THEN VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL. THE ONE CAVEAT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING IS THE POTENTIAL FOR REDUCED VIS IN BR. DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTIES WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE FRONT, IT'S UNCLEAR
WHERE WINDS WILL BE THE LIGHTEST AND WHERE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BE THE HIGHEST, AS THE AREAS WITH THAT OVERLAP WILL
PROBABLY HAVE THE GREATEST RISK OF SUB-VFR VIS.
ON FRIDAY, SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY AT TIMES, WITH
GUSTS TO 20KT LIKELY.
OUTLOOK (SAT THROUGH MON): STRONG AND SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT
BRINGS WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN ON SAT, WITH SUB VFR LIKELY BEHIND
THE FRONT LATER SAT WITH FRONTAL INVERSION DEVELOPING, ALONG
WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS THROUGH THE DAY SAT. CLEARING SKIES SAT
NIGHT WITH WINDS TAPERING OFF AS HIGH PRES ATTEMPTS TO BUILD IN
FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
MARINE
LATEST OBS SHOW CONTINUING SW WINDS 5-10 KNOTS GUSTING 15-20 KTS
AT MOST LOCALES WITH SEAS MAINLY 2-3 FT. BACKDOOR FRONT HAS MADE
IT THROUGH THE ALBEMARLE AND INTO THE CROATAN/ROANOKE SOUNDS.
TO THE NORTH OF THE BNDRY, NERLY BREEZES EXPECTED THOUGH
REMAINING LIGHT, AND TO THE SOUTH, GENERALLY SWRLY TO SRLY
CONTINUED LIGHT FLOW.
OUTLOOK (FRI THROUGH MON): A STRONG COLD FRONT HAS TRENDED
SLOWER, NOW NOT EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE WATERS UNTIL SAT, AT WHICH
POINT IT IS LIKELY TO FORM A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFFSHORE. GALE
WATCH IS IN EFFECT BEGINNING 12Z SATURDAY FOR ALL WATERS EXCEPT
THE SOUTHERN RIVERS, ALTHOUGH SCAS WILL BE LIKELY IN THESE AREAS
AS WELL. PROBABILITIES INDICATE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN GALE FORCE
WINDS BUT LIKELY NOT ACHIEVING STORM FORCE. SEAS BUILD QUICKLY
AS WELL, WITH SEAS OF 6-10+ FT APPEARING MORE LIKELY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. DURATION OF GALE FORCE GUSTS IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS
POINT AND WILL LIKELY BOUNCE ABOVE AND BELOW THE THRESHOLD WELL
INTO NEXT WEEK, AND THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR 6+ SEAS TO LINGER AS
WELL.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPS FOR 10/15 (THURSDAY)
LOCATION TEMP/YEAR
NEW BERN 88/1935 (KEWN ASOS)
CAPE HATTERAS 84/1919 (KHSE ASOS)
GREENVILLE 89/1985 (COOP - NOT KPGV AWOS)
MOREHEAD CITY 86/1990 (COOP - NOT KMRH ASOS)
KINSTON 89/1985 (COOP - NOT KISO AWOS)
JACKSONVILLE 90/1975 (NCA ASOS)
RECORD HIGH TEMPS FOR 10/16 (FRIDAY)
LOCATION TEMP/YEAR
NEW BERN 86/1975 (KEWN ASOS)
CAPE HATTERAS 83/1919 (KHSE ASOS)
GREENVILLE 90/1968 (COOP - NOT KPGV AWOS)
MOREHEAD CITY 84/1917 (COOP - NOT KMRH ASOS)
KINSTON 86/2008 (COOP - NOT KISO AWOS)
JACKSONVILLE 88/1975 (NCA ASOS)
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 2 PM SATURDAY TO 8 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
NCZ203-205.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR
AMZ131-135-150-152-154-156-158-180-182-184-186-188-230-
231.
DISCUSSION...RTE/RJ
AVIATION...RM/RJ
MARINE...RTE/RJ
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