366
FXUS62 KMHX 160759
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
359 AM EDT FRI OCT 16 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
COASTAL LOW DEVELOPMENT BECOMING MORE LIKELY, ALTHOUGH
UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS ON STRENGTH, LOCATION, AND TRACK. WIND
GUSTS AND WAVE HEIGHTS INCREASED WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) PATCHY DENSE FOG ALONG AND SOUTH OF HWY 70 THIS MORNING
2) DRY WITH RECORD HEAT POSSIBLE THROUGH FRIDAY.
3) COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY, FORMING A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OFFSHORE.
4) DRASTICALLY COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT AND LOW FOR SUNDAY,
ALONG WITH CONTINUED BREEZY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS.
MARINE: GALE WATCH IN EFFECT ALONG WITH PROLONGED LARGE SEAS
THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK AS OFFSHORE FRONT STALLS WITH LONG
PERIOD FETCH OF NORTHEASTERLY SWELL AND INCREASING CHANCES OF
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1..A STRATUS DECK ALONG A STATIONARY BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT IS SPREAD THROUGH MUCH OF THE REGION. JUST SOUTH OF THIS
STRATUS DECK, CLEAR SKIES, LOW LEVEL MOISTURE, AND LIGHT TO CALM
WINDS IS PROVIDING IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR FOG FORMATION.
OBSERVATIONS HAVE CONSISTENTLY BEEN AT 1/4 MILES IN ONSLOW,
DUPLIN, AND SOUTHERN CRAVEN COUNTIES. WHILE NO OBSERVATION SITES
ARE IN THE AREA, IT IS LIKELY PATCHY DENSE FOG IS ALSO OCCURING
IN JONES AND CARTERET COUNTIES. A SPS IS IN EFFECT FOR PATCHY
DENSE FOG THIS MORNING IN THE AFOREMENTIONED COUNTIES.
KEY MESSAGE 2...BACK DOOR COLD FRONT SHIFTS BACK NORTH TODAY AND
FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE CWA. IF THE STRATUS
BREAKS UP EARLY IN THE MORNING, WE SHOULD HAVE ANOTHER NEAR
RECORD WARM DAY FOR ENC AS TEMPS SOAR INTO THE UPPER 80S INLAND.
(RECORD HIGH CLIMATE SECTION BELOW). HOWEVER, IF THE CLOUD COVER
THIS MORNING LINGERS, WE COULD HAVE A DELAYED START TO THE
HEATING AND TEMPS COULD MAX OUT IN THE MID 80S.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
A COLD FRONT WILL BE PASSING THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY,
STALLING OFFSHORE ALONG THE GULF STREAM. A COASTAL LOW FORMING
OFFSHORE ALONG THIS FRONT IS BECOMING MORE LIKELY, BUT THERE IS
STILL HIGH UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE/WHEN THE LOW FORMS, HOW DEEP IT
GETS, AND WHERE IT TRACKS. WHILE THERE ARE STILL THREE MAIN
CAMPS AS FAR AS SOLUTIONS GO, CONFIDENCE IS TRENDING UP THAT A
COASTAL LOW WILL FORM.
ONCE THE LOW FORMS OUT OVER THE GULF STREAM THERE ARE THREE MAIN
STEERING PATHS THAT MODELS ARE HINTING AT RIGHT NOW. THE MOST
LIKELY SCENARIO AT THIS TIME REMAINS THAT THE LOW FORMS AND
STAYS OVER THE GULF STREAM PICKING UP STRENGTHS AS IT DOES SO
BUT REMAINS IN A FAIRLY CONSTANT LONGITUDINAL RANGE OFFSHORE.
THIS WILL RESULT IN MINOR TO LOW END MODERATE IMPACTS TO OUR NC
COASTLINE, AS STRONG NE WINDS PAIRED WITH A LOW DEEPENING
OFFSHORE BRING MINOR TO LOW-END MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING,
BEACH EROSION, AND OVERWASH CONCERNS.
THE NEXT LIKELY OUTCOME IS THE LOW DEVELOPS RIGHT ALONG THE
COAST AND HOLDS IT THERE FOR A MUCH MORE PROLONGED EVENT. SHOULD
THIS SOLUTION PLAY OUT, WE COULD BE LOOKING AT A LONG DURATION
OF STRONG NE WINDS AND HIGH SEAS. THIS OUTCOME WOULD RESULT IN
MODERATE IMPACTS TO THE NC COASTLINE. IN ADDITION, THE TRACK OF
THE LOW WOULD HAVE TO BE MONITORED IN CASE IT SHIFTS BACK WEST
TOWARDS EASTERN NC. THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN THE
LOCATION AND INTENSITY DETAILS FOR MODELS SHOWING THIS OUTCOME.
FINALLY, THE LEAST LIKELY OUTCOME IS THE LOW EITHER NOT
DEVELOPS AT ALL OR DEVELOPS IT MUCH LATER AND MUCH FURTHER EAST
THAN ANY OF THE OTHER SCENARIOS. WITH A STRONG HIGH BUILDING
IN, WE WOULD STILL SEE STRONG NE WINDS, ALBEIT FOR A SHORTER
DURATION, AND ELEVATED WAVES BRINGING MINOR COASTAL IMPACTS.
REGARDLESS OF WHICH SCENARIO PLAYS OUT, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE
OF MARINE IMPACTS, AND POTENTIAL FOR WAVES 8+ FT REACHING
PORTIONS OF THE OBX. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR
HATTERAS ISLAND AND NORTHERN OBX. WINDS ADVISORY POTENTIAL
CONTINUES FOR THE OBX ZONES, AS WELL AS PERHAPS PORTIONS OF THE
ADJACENT COASTAL MAINLAND. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR MINOR COASTAL
FLOOD CONCERNS FOR SRN PORTIONS OF PAMLICO SOUND AND THE COASTAL
AREAS OF THE OBX WITH THE SUSTAINED NE FLOW.
KEY MESSAGE 4...COOLEST AND DRIEST AIRMASS FOR THE FALL SEASON
THUS FAR BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT SAT NIGHT AND BEYOND WITH
TEMPS TAKING A NOSEDIVE WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND LOWS IN THE
40S (INLAND) AND 50S (BEACHES). HOWEVER, DEPENDING HOW OFFSHORE
THE FRONT MAKES IT, COULD KEEP THINGS A BIT MILDER THAN FCST IF
SOME CLOUDS ADVECT IN FROM OFFSHORE KEEPING THE NIGHTTIME MINS
A BIT WARMER THAN ADVERTISED.
AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE TO HIGH OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
A SLOW MOVING OR STALLED COLD FRONT IS BRINGING WIDESPREAD LOW
STRATUS AND/OR FOG TO THE REGION. CIGS WILL QUICKLY IMPROVE
ONCE THE FRONT MOVES BACK NORTH IN THE MORNING, BUT GUIDANCE
DIFFERS ON HOW QUICKLY THIS TRANSITION WILL OCCUR. ONCE THE
FRONT IS TO THE NORTH OF ANY TAF SITE, THEN VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD PREVAIL. ON FRIDAY, SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY
AT TIMES, WITH GUSTS TO 20KT LIKELY.
OUTLOOK (SAT THROUGH MON): STRONG AND SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT
BRINGS WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN ON SAT, WITH SUB VFR LIKELY BEHIND
THE FRONT LATER SAT WITH FRONTAL INVERSION DEVELOPING, ALONG
WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS THROUGH THE DAY SAT. CLEARING SKIES SAT
NIGHT WITH WINDS TAPERING OFF AS HIGH PRES ATTEMPTS TO BUILD IN
FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
MARINE
LATEST OBS SHOW CONTINUING W/SW WINDS 5-10 KNOTS WITH SEAS
MAINLY 2-3 FT. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT LIFTS BACK NORTH TODAY,
WITH SW WINDS STEADILY INCREASING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY.
OUTLOOK (FRI THROUGH MON): A STRONG COLD FRONT HAS TRENDED
SLOWER, NOW NOT EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE WATERS UNTIL SAT, AT WHICH
POINT IT IS LIKELY TO FORM A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFFSHORE. GALE
WATCHES HAVE BEEN CONVERTED TO GALE WARNINGS BEGINNING 15Z
SATURDAY FOR ALL WATERS EXCEPT THE SOUTHERN RIVERS. A GALE WATCH
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NEUSE RIVER, AS PROBS OF GALE FORCE
GUSTS HAVE INCREASED. SCA HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE PAMLICO/PUNGO
RIVERS. PROBABILITIES INDICATE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN GALE FORCE
WINDS BUT LIKELY NOT ACHIEVING CONSISTENT STORM STORM FORCE
GUSTS. HOWEVER, IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THE WIND FORECAST HAS
TRENDED UP A TAD, AND THE FORECAST IS NOW AT THE HIGH END OF
GALE FORCE GUSTS FOR OFFSHORE WATERS (20-60NM). FURTHER
INCREASES IN GUST FORECAST WOULD PUT US AT STORM FORCE
THRESHOLDS. SEAS BUILD QUICKLY AS WELL, WITH SEAS OF 6-10+ FT IN
0-20NM ZONES, INCREASING TO 10-20 FT IN 20-60NM ZONES ALONG THE
GULF STREAM LATER THIS WEEKEND. DURATION OF STRONG WIND GUSTS
AND HIGH WAVES IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT AND WILL LIKELY BOUNCE
ABOVE AND BELOW THE THRESHOLD WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPS FOR 10/16 (FRIDAY)
LOCATION TEMP/YEAR
NEW BERN 86/1975 (KEWN ASOS)
CAPE HATTERAS 83/1919 (KHSE ASOS)
GREENVILLE 90/1968 (COOP - NOT KPGV AWOS)
MOREHEAD CITY 84/1917 (COOP - NOT KMRH ASOS)
KINSTON 86/2008 (COOP - NOT KISO AWOS)
JACKSONVILLE 88/1975 (NCA ASOS)
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 2 PM SATURDAY TO 8 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
NCZ203-205.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 11 AM SATURDAY TO 11 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
AMZ131-135-150-152-154-156-158-180-182-184-186-188-230-
231.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM SATURDAY TO 11 AM EDT MONDAY
FOR AMZ136.
GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
AMZ137.
DISCUSSION...RJ
AVIATION...RJ
MARINE...RJ
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