681
FXUS62 KMHX 170036
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
836 PM EDT FRI OCT 16 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NOR'EASTER EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF OF THE NC COAST THIS
WEEKEND. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING REGARDING TRACK AND INTENSITY
AS WELL AS MINOR TO MODERATE COASTAL IMPACTS WITH VULNERABLE
AREAS SEEING THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS. STORM
WATCHES NOW IN EFFECT FOR OUTER MARINE ZONES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY, WITH A LOW FORMING
AND BRINGING A POTENTIAL NOR'EASTER NEAR THE COAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
2) DRASTICALLY COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT AND LOW FOR SUNDAY,
ALONG WITH CONTINUED BREEZY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS.
MARINE: GALE WARNINGS IN EFFECT WITH STORM WATCHES FOR OUTER
MARINE ZONES. PROLONGED PERIOD OF STRONG WINDS AND HIGH SEAS AS
NOR'EASTER LINGERS OFFSHORE FOR SEVERAL DAYS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
FORECAST IS BEGINNING TO COME INTO MUCH GREATER CERTAINTY WITH
THIS RUN OF THE FORECAST MODELS, ESPECIALLY IN REGARDS TO A COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH EASTERN NC ON SATURDAY AND THEN CONTINUING
OFFSHORE. THERE IS NOW HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT A NOR'EASTER WILL
FORM OFFSHORE AND BRING IMPACTS TO EASTERN NC IN THE FORM OF
STRONG WINDS, HIGH WAVES, AND COASTAL FLOODING AS WELL AS
EXTREMELY DANGEROUS MARINE CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON THE BACK END OF THE FORECAST. EXACTLY HOW
LONG IT LINGERS OFFSHORE AND ITS EVENTUAL ROUTE UPON EXIT STILL
HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME. WHAT WE DO KNOW IS THAT THE
ALTERNATE SCENARIO THAT EXCLUDED THE FORMATION OF THE LOW IS NOW
GONE AND AS A RESULT THE EXPECTED VALUES FOR WINDS AND SEAS HAS
INCREASED.
AS FAR AS THE COLD FRONT IS CONCERNED THAT WILL BE THE CATALYST
FOR THE EVENTUAL SYSTEM, EXPECT WINDS TO SHIFT TO NORTHEASTERLY
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING BRINGING RAIN CHANCES TO THE AREA FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY ON SATURDAY. WHILE AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
BE EXTREME, A WIDESPREAD HALF OF AN INCH TO AN INCH OF RAIN
THROUGHOUT THE DAY IS LIKELY.
WINDS WILL PICK UP THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH 25-30 MPH GUSTS
COMMON. VALUES WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST WITH AREAS NEAR
THE COAST EXPERIENCING MUCH HIGHER VALUES. A WIND ADVISORY IN
EFFECT FOR WESTERN CARTERET, MAINLAND DARE AND MAINLAND HYDE
COUNTIES FROM 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY. FOR THE CORE AND
OUTER BANKS AS WELL AS DOWNEAST CARTERET COUNTY, A HIGH WIND
WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH 6Z ON MONDAY.
2-4 FOOT ABOVE GROUND LEVEL COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH MINOR TO MODERATE IMPACTS THROUGHOUT THE OUTER BANKS, CORE
BANKS AND DOWNEAST CARTERET COUNTY. IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO BOTH
SOUND AND OCEANSIDE LOCALES WITH POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS
TO VULNERABLE AREAS ON THE OCEAN SIDE. A MIX OF COASTAL FLOOD
HEADLINES IS IN EFFECT TO COVER THESE HAZARDS. ADDITIONALLY, A
HIGH SURF ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE OUTER BANKS WITH
BREAKING WAVES OF GENERALLY 8-12 FEET EXPECTED IN THE SURF ZONE.
A MODERATE TO HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS ALSO EXPECTED
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
AFTER RECORD BREAKING HEAT THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS, TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO COOL SIGNIFICANTLY. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE 60-70 DEGREE RANGE WITH
COOLER VALUES INLAND AND WARMER TEMPERATURES NEAR THE COAST.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 40S INLAND JUST AFTER THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE TO THE LOW 50S BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH
COASTAL LOCATIONS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S EARLY IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD TO LOW 50S TO LOW 60S BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY, PARTICULARLY IN THE AFTERNOONS
DEPENDING UPON THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF THE OFFSHORE NOR'EASTER.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS EVENING WILL FLIP AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST,
THEN NORTH, OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME GUSTY FAIRLY QUICKLY IN THE WAKE OF THE
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. ADDITIONALLY, CIGS WILL QUICKLY LOWER,
BOTTOMING OUT AT IFR FOR A TIME. IFR CONDITIONS MAY ONLY LAST A
FEW HOURS, BUT THIS IS THE TYPE OF SETUP WHERE IFR CIGS
SOMETIMES LAST LONGER THAN GUIDANCE SUGGESTS. IN LIGHT OF THIS,
THE TAFS REFLECT A LONGER PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY
AT KOAJ, KEWN, AND KMRH. EVENTUALLY SOME DRIER AIR WORKING IN
SHOULD HELP TO RAISE CIGS TO MVFR, OR EVEN LOW VFR, ESPECIALLY
AT KISO AND KPGV. THE LOW CIGS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY AREAS OF
LIGHT TO MODERATE RA WITH MVFR VIS AT TIMES. SOME HEAVIER RAIN
MAY DEVELOP WITH IFR VIS, BUT THAT IS A LOWER CONFIDENCE
SCENARIO.
REGARDING POST-FRONTAL WINDS, IT WILL BE BREEZY WITH 20-30KT
GUSTS EXPECTED AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY. GUSTS TO 35KT
WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KMRH.
OUTLOOK (SAT NIGHT THROUGH MON): CLEARING SKIES SAT NIGHT BUT
WINDS AND WIND GUSTS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED AS NOR'EASTER LINGERS
OFFSHORE. CONFIDENCE IN THE EVENTUAL ROUTE OF THE NOR'EASTER
REMAINS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME AND THIS WILL LIKELY HAVE SOME
INFLUENCE ON THE AVIATION FORECAST THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
MORE DETAILS WILL BECOME AVAILABLE AS CONFIDENCE INCREASES.
MARINE
LATEST OBS SHOW WINDS BEGINNING TO PICK UP OFFSHORE WITH
SUSTAINED VALUES OF 10-15 KTS GUSTING 15-20 KTS.
LATEST OBS SHOW CONTINUING W/SW WINDS 5-10 KNOTS WITH SEAS
MAINLY 2-3 FT REPRESENTING THE LAST PLEASANT BOATING CONDITIONS
FOR QUITE SOME TIME AS A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA ON SATURDAY WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FORMING INTO A
POTENTIAL NOR'EASTER WHICH WILL LINGER OFFSHORE WELL INTO NEXT
WEEK.
OUTLOOK (SAT THROUGH TUES): THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL
BRING NORTHERLY TO NNWERLY WINDS TO ALL OF THE WATERS BY 12Z
SATURDAY. WINDS WILL PICK UP SIGNIFICANTLY BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AS NOR'ESTER BEGINS THE EARLY STAGES OF ITS GENESIS OVER THE
GULF STREAM. GALE WARNINGS ARE NOW IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS
FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL LINGER INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. IN ADDITION A STORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN 20-60 NM MARINE ZONES FROM 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH 06Z
ON MONDAY. DURING THIS TIME SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ANYWHERE
FROM 8-12 FT IN THE 0-20 NM ZONES UPWARDS OF 20-25 FEET IN THE
OUTER WATERS OF THE 60 NM ZONES. WAVE PERIODS WILL PEAK AROUND
13-15 S SUNDAY AND MONDAY. FOR NOW THE DURATION OF THE EVENT
REMAINS EXTREMELY UNCERTAIN WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF DANGEROUS
MARINE CONDITIONS POSSIBLY CONTINUING THROUGH THE ENTIRETY OF
NEXT WEEK.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 PM SATURDAY TO 8 PM EDT MONDAY FOR NCZ047-
081-195.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 8 PM SATURDAY TO 5 PM EDT MONDAY
FOR NCZ094-194.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 6 AM SUNDAY TO 11 AM EDT MONDAY
FOR NCZ195-199.
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 8 AM EDT SATURDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING FOR NCZ196-203>205.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 5 PM SATURDAY TO 8 PM EDT MONDAY
FOR NCZ196.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT FOR NCZ196-203>205.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT TO 8 PM EDT
MONDAY FOR NCZ196-204.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 2 PM SATURDAY TO 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
NCZ203-205.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 5 PM SATURDAY TO 8 AM EDT TUESDAY
FOR NCZ203.
COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING FOR NCZ204-205.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM SATURDAY TO 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
AMZ131-135-230-231.
GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM SATURDAY TO 3 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ136-
137.
GALE WARNING FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
AMZ150.
GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM SATURDAY TO 9 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ152-
154.
GALE WARNING FROM 2 PM SATURDAY TO 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ156-
158.
GALE WARNING FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 1 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
AMZ180.
GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ182-184.
STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
AMZ182-184.
GALE WARNING FROM 2 PM TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ186-188.
STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
FOR AMZ186-188.
DISCUSSION...RTE/RJ
AVIATION...RM/RJ
MARINE...RTE/RJ
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