282
FXUS62 KMHX 170824
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
424 AM EDT SAT OCT 17 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NOR'EASTER EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF OF THE NC COAST THIS EVENING.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ON MINOR TO MODERATE COASTAL IMPACTS WITH
VULNERABLE AREAS SEEING THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT
IMPACTS. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THE NOR'EASTER LINGERING
OFFSHORE FOR MULTIPLE DAYS, BUT STRENGTH IS STILL UNCERTAIN.
STORM WARNINGS NOW IN EFFECT OVER SOME OUTER COASTAL WATERS.
COASTAL FLOOD WATCHES UPGRADED TO WARNINGS. HIGH WIND WATCH
UPGRADED TO WIND ADVISORY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THIS MORNING, WITH A LOW FORMING
AND BRINGING A NOR'EASTER NEAR THE COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
2) DRASTICALLY COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT AND LOW FOR SUNDAY,
ALONG WITH CONTINUED BREEZY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS.
MARINE: STORM WARNINGS AND GALE WARNINGS IN EFFECT. PROLONGED
PERIOD OF STRONG WINDS AND HIGH SEAS AS NOR'EASTER LINGERS
OFFSHORE FOR SEVERAL DAYS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
THE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS COASTAL PLAIN COUNTIES
HEADED TOWARDS THE COAST. ALONG THIS COLD FRONT, ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE, WITH BETTER COVERAGE RAIN LAGGING A COUPLE
HOURS BEHIND. BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT, WINDS SHIFT TO THE NW THEN
AND CAN GUST TO 20-30 MPH INLAND.
AS THIS COLD FRONT SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND STALLS ALONG THE GULF
STREAM, THERE IS NOW HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT A NOR'EASTER WILL FORM
OFFSHORE AND BRING STRONG WINDS, HIGH WAVES, AND COASTAL
FLOODING AS WELL AS EXTREMELY DANGEROUS MARINE CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE OF IMPACTS
LINGERING WELL INTO NEXT WEEK AS MORE MODEL GUIDANCE IS
SUPPORTING A SOLUTION WHERE THE NOR'EASTER LINGERS OFFSHORE WELL
INTO NEXT WEEK.
EXACTLY WHERE THE NOR'EASTER TRACKS AFTER IT GETS TIRED OF
SITTING OFFSHORE AND HOW MUCH IT IS ABLE TO DEEPEN ARE BOTH
STILL UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT WITH
ACCESS TO THE WARM GULF STREAM WATERS FOR MULTIPLE DAYS, IT IS
POSSIBLE MODELS ARE DOWNPLAYING THE EVENTUAL STRENGTH OF THE
LOW.
WINDS WILL PICK UP THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH 25-30 MPH GUSTS
COMMON AS THE FRONT SHIFTS OFFSHORE. VALUES WILL INCREASE FROM
WEST TO EAST WITH AREAS NEAR THE COAST EXPERIENCING MUCH HIGHER
VALUES. A WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR CARTERET, HYDE, AND DARE
COUNTIES (BOTH OBX AND MAINLAND) THIS AFTERNOON TO MONDAY
EVENING, AS THE HIGH WIND WATCH WAS UPGRADED TO A WIND ADVISORY
WITH THIS UPDATE. THE DECISION TO GO WITH A WIND ADVISORY
INSTEAD OF A HIGH WIND WARNING FOR OBX BOILED DOWN TO THE OBX
BEING MORE RESILIENT WHEN IT COMES TO PURE WIND IMPACTS,
ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE NOR'EASTER A COUPLE WEEKS AGO HAD NO
PURE WIND IMPACTS LIKE TREES DOWN OR WIDESPREAD POWER OUTAGES.
IN ADDITION, PROBS OF WIND GUSTS OVER 58 MPH (HWW CRITERIA) ARE
GENERALLY BELOW 20%. FURTHER EXTENSIONS INTO THE WORK WEEK ARE
LIKELY FOR SOME IF NOT ALL ZONES GIVEN MODEL TRENDS. UPGRADES
TO HIGH WIND WARNINGS (ESPECIALLY FOR OBX) AREN'T OUT OF THE
QUESTION IF THE NOR'EASTER DOES DEEPEN SUBSTANTIALLY MORE THAN
MODELS SUGGEST, AND WILL BE WORTH MONITORING.
2-4 FOOT ABOVE GROUND LEVEL COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH MINOR TO MODERATE IMPACTS THROUGHOUT THE OUTER BANKS, CORE
BANKS AND DOWNEAST CARTERET COUNTY. IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO BOTH
SOUND AND OCEANSIDE LOCALES WITH POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS
TO VULNERABLE AREAS ON THE OCEAN SIDE. A MIX OF COASTAL FLOOD
HEADLINES IS IN EFFECT TO COVER THESE HAZARDS. ADDITIONALLY, A
HIGH SURF ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE OUTER BANKS WITH
BREAKING WAVES OF GENERALLY 8-14 FEET EXPECTED IN THE SURF
ZONE. A MODERATE TO HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS ALSO EXPECTED
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
AFTER RECORD BREAKING HEAT THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS, TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO COOL SIGNIFICANTLY. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE 60-70 DEGREE RANGE WITH
COOLER VALUES INLAND AND WARMER TEMPERATURES NEAR THE COAST.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 40S INLAND JUST AFTER THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE TO THE LOW 50S BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH
COASTAL LOCATIONS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S EARLY IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD TO LOW 50S TO LOW 60S BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY, PARTICULARLY IN THE AFTERNOONS
DEPENDING UPON THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF THE OFFSHORE NOR'EASTER.
AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS EVENING WILL FLIP AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST,
THEN NORTH, THIS MORNING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME GUSTY FAIRLY QUICKLY IN THE WAKE OF THE
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. ADDITIONALLY, CIGS WILL QUICKLY LOWER,
BOTTOMING OUT AT IFR FOR A TIME LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. EVENTUALLY SOME DRIER AIR WORKING IN SHOULD HELP TO
RAISE CIGS TO MVFR, OR EVEN LOW VFR, ESPECIALLY AT KISO AND
KPGV. THE LOW CIGS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY AREAS OF LIGHT TO
MODERATE RA WITH MVFR VIS AT TIMES. SOME HEAVIER RAIN MAY
DEVELOP WITH IFR VIS, BUT THAT IS A LOWER CONFIDENCE SCENARIO.
REGARDING POST-FRONTAL WINDS, IT WILL BE BREEZY WITH 20-30KT
GUSTS EXPECTED AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
ONWARDS. GUSTS TO 35KT WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KMRH.
OUTLOOK (SAT NIGHT THROUGH MON): CLEARING SKIES SAT NIGHT FROM
WEST TO EAST BUT WINDS AND WIND GUSTS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED AS
NOR'EASTER LINGERS OFFSHORE. CONFIDENCE IN THE EVENTUAL ROUTE OF
THE NOR'EASTER REMAINS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME AND THIS WILL
LIKELY HAVE SOME INFLUENCE ON THE AVIATION FORECAST THROUGH MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK. MORE DETAILS WILL BECOME AVAILABLE AS CONFIDENCE
INCREASES.
MARINE
LATEST OBS SHOW WINDS BEGINNING TO PICK UP OFFSHORE WITH
SUSTAINED VALUES OF 10-20 KTS GUSTING 15-30 KTS. SEAS ARE 3-5
FT, EXPECTED TO QUICKLY RISE IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, A QUICK SHIFT TO
GUSTY NW/N WINDS IS ALSO EXPECTED. A NOR'EASTER IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP LATER TODAY ALONG THE COLD FRONT OFFSHORE, WHICH WILL
LINGER OFFSHORE WELL INTO NEXT WEEK BRINGING A LONG DURATION OF
VERY DANGEROUS MARINE CONDITIONS. STORM WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT
FOR OUTER COASTAL WATERS FROM SURF CITY TO OREGON INLET, WITH
FORECAST CALLING FOR WIND GUSTS OF 50+ KNOTS ALONG THE GULF
STREAM. CLOSER TO THE COAST, BRIEF PERIODS OF STORM FORCE GUSTS
ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, ESPECIALLY IN
THE EASTERN PAMLICO SOUND, AND COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE LOOKOUT
TO OREGON INLET. THIS BRIEF SURGE SHOULD THEN SETTLE TO BRING
HIGH END GALE FORCE GUSTS OF 40-45 KNOTS FOR A WHILE. TODAY,
SEAS INCREASE TO BECOME 5-11 FT IN THE 0-20NM ZONES, 10-15 FT IN
THE OFFSHORE ZONES. FURTHER INCREASES IN WAVES EXPECTED SUNDAY
ONWARDS.
OUTLOOK (SUN THROUGH TUES): WAVE PERIODS WILL PEAK AROUND 13-15S
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS WAVES BUILD TO 7-15 FT IN THE 0-20NM ZONES
AND 15-25 FT IN THE 20-60 NM ZONES. THESE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK, ALTHOUGH THE EVENTUAL
END TIME IS STILL UNCERTAIN.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
NCZ047-081-195.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM EDT
MONDAY FOR NCZ094-194.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 6 AM SUNDAY TO 11 AM EDT MONDAY
FOR NCZ195-199.
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH
THIS EVENING FOR NCZ196-203>205.
WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT MONDAY FOR NCZ196-
203>205.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT
MONDAY FOR NCZ196.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 PM EDT MONDAY
FOR NCZ196-204.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 AM EDT
TUESDAY FOR NCZ203-205.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 AM EDT
TUESDAY FOR NCZ203.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 AM EDT
TUESDAY FOR NCZ204-205.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
AMZ131-150-180-230-231.
GALE WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ135-
152-154.
GALE WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
AMZ136-137.
GALE WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
AMZ156-158.
STORM WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
AMZ182-184-186-188.
DISCUSSION...RTE/RJ
AVIATION...RJ
MARINE...RTE/RJ
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page