937
FXUS62 KMHX 171903
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
303 PM EDT SAT OCT 17 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
DECREASED WINDS A BIT IN THE EXTENDED. THIS DOES NOT DIMINISH
THE EXPECTED MAJOR IMPACTS THE NOR'EASTER WILL BRING THROUGH THE
COMING WEEK.
GALE WARNINGS FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS AND MOST SOUNDS/RIVERS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PAMLICO/PUNGO RIVER.
KEY MESSAGES
1) COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH, WITH A SLOW MOVING NOR'EASTER
THAT WILL BE TAKING SHAPE WELL OFF THE COAST BRINGING A LONG
DURATION WIND AND SWELL EVENT WITH HIGH IMPACTS FOR PARTS OF THE
NC COAST INTO NEXT WEEK.
2) DRASTICALLY COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT AND LOW FOR SUNDAY INTO
THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK, ALONG WITH CONTINUED BREEZY
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS.
MARINE: GALE WARNINGS IN EFFECT. PROLONGED PERIOD OF STRONG
WINDS AND HIGH SEAS AS NOR'EASTER LINGERS OFFSHORE THROUGH AT
LEAST MID WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...COLD FRONT HAS MOVED WELL OFFSHORE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND HAS USHERED IN STRONG CAA AND ENSUING GUSTY NRLY
WINDS. THERE CONTINUES TO BE HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT A STRONG
COASTAL LOW TURNING NOR'EASTER WILL FORM WELL OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY TO MID
NEXT WEEK. STRONG WINDS, HIGH WAVES, AND COASTAL FLOODING AS
WELL AS EXTREMELY DANGEROUS MARINE CONDITIONS WILL BE THE
RESULT.
THERE IS STILL MODEL UNCERTAINTY BEYOND EARLY WEEK ON WHERE THE
LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL BE, BUT THE TREND IN 17/12Z GLOBAL
GUIDANCE INCLUDING ENSEMBLE PACKET HAS SHIFTED A BIT FURTHER
OFFSHORE. NEVERTHELESS, THIS DOES NOT DIMINISH ANY OF THE
ADVERTISED HIGH COASTAL IMPACTS, AS LONG DURATION AND LONG FETCH
NNERLY WINDS WILL BRING LARGE WAVES AND PILE UP WATER ALONG THE
COAST, LEADING TO COASTAL FLOODING WELL INTO THE WEEK.
HIGH WINDS ON THE COAST STILL EXPECTED. HAVE FINE-TUNED THE WIND
ADV, TAKING W CARTERET OUT BUT KEEPING THE OBX AND NERN ZONES
CLOSER TO THE STRONGER GRADIENT WINDS IN TACT. HIGH WIND WARNING
CRITERIA BEING MET APPEAR TO BE LESSENING, THOUGH CAN'T RULE OUT
A FEW GUSTS REACHING 60 MPH EARLY THIS EVENING WITH THE INITIAL
CAA SURGE. WITH THE FURTHER OFFSHORE TRACK DURING THE WEEK, THIS
SHOULD ALSO KEEP WINDS LOWER.
2-4 FOOT ABOVE GROUND LEVEL COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH MINOR TO MODERATE IMPACTS THROUGHOUT THE OUTER BANKS, CORE
BANKS AND DOWNEAST CARTERET COUNTY. IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO BOTH
SOUND AND OCEANSIDE LOCALES WITH POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS
TO VULNERABLE AREAS ON THE OCEAN SIDE. A MIX OF COASTAL FLOOD
HEADLINES IS IN EFFECT TO COVER THESE HAZARDS. ADDITIONALLY, A
HIGH SURF ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE OUTER BANKS WITH
BREAKING WAVES OF GENERALLY 8-14 FEET EXPECTED IN THE SURF
ZONE. A MODERATE TO HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS ALSO EXPECTED
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.
KEY MESSAGE 2...AFTER RECORD BREAKING HEAT THE LAST SEVERAL
DAYS, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO COOL SIGNIFICANTLY. MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE
60-70 DEGREE RANGE WITH COOLER VALUES INLAND AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES NEAR THE COAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE
40S INLAND JUST AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TO THE 50S BY THE END
OF THE WEEK WITH COASTAL LOCATIONS IN THE 50S EARLY IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD TO NEAR 60 BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK. WINDS WILL
REMAIN BREEZY, PARTICULARLY IN THE AFTERNOONS DEPENDING UPON
THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF THE OFFSHORE NOR'EASTER.
REGARDING RAIN, MAIN BATCH SHOULD END BY THIS EVENING AS AREA OF
FGEN/LIFT SHIFTS OFFSHORE. AS THE LOW MEANDERS OFFSHORE, SOME
WRAP AROUND RAIN MAY OCNL SNEAK BACK ONSHORE, WITH BEST CHANCES
ON THE OBX OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
CIGS QUICKLY LOWERING THIS AFTERNOON, BOTTOMING OUT AT IFR FOR
A TIME INTO THIS AFTERNOON. EVENTUALLY SOME DRIER AIR WORKING
IN SHOULD HELP TO RAISE CIGS TO MVFR, OR EVEN LOW VFR,
ESPECIALLY AT KISO AND KPGV. THE LOW CIGS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
AREAS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RA WITH MVFR VIS AT TIMES BEFORE THE
RAIN ENDS BY EARLY EVENIONG.
REGARDING POST-FRONTAL WINDS, IT WILL BE BREEZY WITH 20-30KT
GUSTS EXPECTED AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
ONWARDS, HIGHEST WINDS AT KMRH.
OUTLOOK (SUN NIGHT THROUGH THU): GOOD FLYING CONDITIONS EXPECTED
NEXT WEEK AS THE OFFSHORE LOW REMAINS WELL EAST OF THE COAST,
THOUGH OCNL GUSTY WINDS, ESP DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS WITH
BETTER MIXING.
MARINE
LATEST OBS SHOW WINDS BEGINNING TO PICK UP OFFSHORE WITH
SUSTAINED VALUES OF AROUND ~30 KT GUSTING TO ~40 KT MOST
LOCALES. HAVE CONVERTED REMAINING STORM WARNINGS TO GALE
WARNINGS, AS SURGE OF WINDS NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD ~50
KT. STILL CAN'T RULE OUT SPORADIC GUSTS TO AROUND 50 KT FOR THE
CTRL COASTAL WATERS, THOUGH WILL QUICKLY WANE LATER THIS EVENING
WITH STRONGEST GRADIENT WINDS SHIFTING WELL OFFSHORE AS CAA
SURGE WANES.
VERY DANGEROUS MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AS LOW PRESSURE
WILL FORM WELL OFF THE NC COAST BUT CONT TO SUPPLY A STEADY
FETCH OF STRONG NERLY WINDS INTO ENC. GALE WARNINGS ARE IN
EFFECT THROUGH EARLY WED, AND MAY HAVE TO BE EXTENDED WITH
ONCOMING FCST SHIFTS ESP IF COASTAL STORM STALLS OFF THE COAST
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THERE IS LARGE MODEL SPREAD BEYOND
EARLY WEEK ON HOW LONG THE LOW WILL MEANDER, AS A BLOCKING
PATTERN REMAINS TO THE NORTH AND EAST.
OUTLOOK (SUN NIGHT THROUGH THU): WAVE PERIODS WILL PEAK AROUND
13-15S SUNDAY INTO MID WEEK AS WAVES BUILD TO 7-15 FT IN THE
0-20NM ZONES AND 15-25 FT IN THE 20-60 NM ZONES. THESE HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK, ALTHOUGH
THE EVENTUAL END TIME IS STILL UNCERTAIN.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT MONDAY FOR NCZ047-081-203>205.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM EDT
MONDAY FOR NCZ094-194.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 6 AM SUNDAY TO 11 AM EDT MONDAY
FOR NCZ195.
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ196-
203>205.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT MONDAY FOR NCZ196.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT MONDAY FOR NCZ196.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 PM EDT MONDAY
FOR NCZ196-204.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR NCZ203-205.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR NCZ203.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR NCZ204-205.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT MONDAY NIGHT FOR AMZ131-156-
158-188-230.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ135-150-152-154-
180-182-184-186-231.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT MONDAY NIGHT FOR
AMZ136.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ137.
DISCUSSION...TL/RJ
AVIATION...TL
MARINE...TL/RJ
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