053
FXUS62 KMHX 180050
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
850 PM EDT SAT OCT 17 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
DECREASED WINDS A BIT IN THE EXTENDED. THIS DOES NOT DIMINISH
THE EXPECTED MAJOR IMPACTS THE NOR'EASTER WILL BRING THROUGH THE
COMING WEEK.
GALE WARNINGS FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS AND MOST SOUNDS/RIVERS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PAMLICO/PUNGO RIVER.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY EXPANDED TO INCLUDE TYRRELL COUNTY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH, WITH A SLOW MOVING NOR'EASTER
THAT WILL BE TAKING SHAPE WELL OFF THE COAST BRINGING A LONG
DURATION WIND AND SWELL EVENT WITH HIGH IMPACTS FOR PARTS OF THE
NC COAST INTO NEXT WEEK.
2) DRASTICALLY COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT AND LOW FOR SUNDAY INTO
THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK, ALONG WITH CONTINUED BREEZY
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS.
MARINE: GALE WARNINGS IN EFFECT. PROLONGED PERIOD OF STRONG
WINDS AND HIGH SEAS AS NOR'EASTER LINGERS OFFSHORE THROUGH AT
LEAST MID WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...AS OF EARLY THIS EVENING, A COLD FRONT IS ABOUT
150 MILES OFFSHORE OF ENC. THIS FRONT HAS USHERED IN STRONG CAA
AND ENSUING GUSTY NRLY WINDS. THERE CONTINUES TO BE HIGH
CONFIDENCE THAT A STRONG NOR'EASTER WILL FORM WELL OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
TO MID NEXT WEEK. STRONG WINDS, HIGH WAVES, AND COASTAL
FLOODING AS WELL AS EXTREMELY DANGEROUS MARINE CONDITIONS WILL
BE THE RESULT.
THERE IS STILL MODEL UNCERTAINTY BEYOND EARLY WEEK ON WHERE THE
LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL BE, BUT THE TREND IN 17/12Z GLOBAL
GUIDANCE INCLUDING ENSEMBLE PACKET HAS SHIFTED A BIT FURTHER
OFFSHORE. NEVERTHELESS, THIS DOES NOT DIMINISH ANY OF THE
ADVERTISED HIGH COASTAL IMPACTS, AS LONG DURATION AND LONG FETCH
NNERLY WINDS WILL BRING LARGE WAVES AND PILE UP WATER ALONG THE
COAST, LEADING TO COASTAL FLOODING WELL INTO THE WEEK.
HIGH WINDS ON THE COAST STILL EXPECTED. HAVE FINE-TUNED THE WIND
ADV, TAKING W CARTERET OUT BUT KEEPING THE OBX AND NERN ZONES
CLOSER TO THE STRONGER GRADIENT WINDS IN TACT. HIGH WIND WARNING
CRITERIA BEING MET APPEAR TO BE LESSENING, THOUGH CAN'T RULE OUT
A FEW GUSTS REACHING 60 MPH EARLY THIS EVENING WITH THE INITIAL
CAA SURGE. WITH THE FURTHER OFFSHORE TRACK DURING THE WEEK, THIS
SHOULD ALSO KEEP WINDS LOWER.
2-4 FOOT ABOVE GROUND LEVEL COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH MINOR TO MODERATE IMPACTS THROUGHOUT THE OUTER BANKS, CORE
BANKS AND DOWNEAST CARTERET COUNTY. IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO
BOTH SOUND AND OCEANSIDE LOCALES WITH POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT
IMPACTS TO VULNERABLE AREAS ON THE OCEAN SIDE. A MIX OF COASTAL
FLOOD HEADLINES IS IN EFFECT TO COVER THESE HAZARDS. ONE RECENT
ADDITION TO THE SUITE OF COASTAL HEADLINES WAS TO ISSUE A
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR TYRRELL COUNTY. THE SHERIFF'S OFFICE
REPORTED HWY 94 IS FLOODED, WITH ADDITIONAL PUBLIC REPORTS OF
DEEP WATER ALONG THAT STRETCH OF HIGHWAY. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO
WATER PILING UP ON THE SOUTHERN END OF THE ALLIGATOR RIVER WITH
STRONG, GALE-FORCE WINDS BLOWING STRAIGHT SOUTH DOWN THE LENGTH
OF THE RIVER.
ADDITIONALLY, A HIGHSURF ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE OUTER
BANKS WITH BREAKING WAVES OF GENERALLY 8-14 FEET EXPECTED IN THE
SURF ZONE. A MODERATE TO HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS ALSO
EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.
KEY MESSAGE 2...AFTER RECORD BREAKING HEAT THE LAST SEVERAL
DAYS, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO COOL SIGNIFICANTLY. MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE
60-70 DEGREE RANGE WITH COOLER VALUES INLAND AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES NEAR THE COAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE
40S INLAND JUST AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TO THE 50S BY THE END
OF THE WEEK WITH COASTAL LOCATIONS IN THE 50S EARLY IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD TO NEAR 60 BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK. WINDS WILL
REMAIN BREEZY, PARTICULARLY IN THE AFTERNOONS DEPENDING UPON
THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF THE OFFSHORE NOR'EASTER.
REGARDING RAIN, MAIN BATCH SHOULD END BY THIS EVENING AS AREA OF
FGEN/LIFT SHIFTS OFFSHORE. AS THE LOW MEANDERS OFFSHORE, SOME
WRAP AROUND RAIN MAY OCNL SNEAK BACK ONSHORE, WITH BEST CHANCES
ON THE OBX OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
A COLD FRONT HAS SHIFTED OFFSHORE AND NOW RESIDES ABOUT 150
MILES SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS. ALONG THE FRONT, AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE HAS DEVELOPED. THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT AROUND
THE LOW, AND A HIGH OVER THE OHIO VALLEY, CONTINUES TO SUPPORT
GUSTY NORTH WINDS, ESPECIALLY AT KOAJ, KEWN, AND KMRH. FURTHER
INLAND, KPGV AND KISO ARE OBSERVING LOWER WINDS DUE TO A WEAKER
GRADIENT IN THAT AREA. THE WEAKER GRADIENT LOOKS TO BE SHORT-
LIVED, AND GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP AT KPGV AND
KISO, POTENTIALLY AS EARLY AS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. GUSTY WINDS ARE
THEN EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH SUNDAY, WITH GUSTS OF
25-35KT COMMON.
LOW STRATUS AND RA IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST
TONIGHT AS DRIER AIR BEGINS TO WORK IN FROM THE WEST. WHILE VFR
IS LIKELY TO PREVAIL ON SUNDAY, SCT CUMULUS CLOUDS ON THE NW
SIDE OF THE LOW MAY BRIEFLY REACH BKN COVERAGE WITH CIGS AROUND
4-5K FT.
OUTLOOK (SUN NIGHT THROUGH THU): GOOD FLYING CONDITIONS EXPECTED
NEXT WEEK AS THE OFFSHORE LOW REMAINS WELL EAST OF THE COAST,
THOUGH OCNL GUSTY WINDS, ESP DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS WITH
BETTER MIXING.
MARINE
LATEST OBS SHOW NORTHERLY WINDS OF 20-25KT SUSTAINED, WITH PEAK
GUSTS OF 30-45KT. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 50KT HAVE BEEN OBSERVED
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS. SEAS
CONTINUE TO BUILD, WITH BUOYS EAST OF THE OUTER BANKS REPORTING
10-11 FT CLOSEST TO SHORE AND 12-16FT OFFSHORE. PERIODS HAVE
BUILT TO 9S. SOUTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT, SEAS OF 6-9FT AT 6S ARE
BEING REPORTED.
HAVE CONVERTED REMAINING STORM WARNINGS TO GALE WARNINGS, AS
SURGE OF WINDS NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD ~50 KT.
VERY DANGEROUS MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AS LOW PRESSURE
WILL FORM WELL OFF THE NC COAST BUT CONT TO SUPPLY A STEADY
FETCH OF STRONG NERLY WINDS INTO ENC. GALE WARNINGS ARE IN
EFFECT THROUGH EARLY WED, AND MAY HAVE TO BE EXTENDED WITH
ONCOMING FCST SHIFTS ESP IF COASTAL STORM STALLS OFF THE COAST
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THERE IS LARGE MODEL SPREAD BEYOND
EARLY WEEK ON HOW LONG THE LOW WILL MEANDER, AS A BLOCKING
PATTERN REMAINS TO THE NORTH AND EAST.
OUTLOOK (SUN NIGHT THROUGH THU): WAVE PERIODS WILL PEAK AROUND
13-15S SUNDAY INTO MID WEEK AS WAVES BUILD TO 7-15 FT IN THE
0-20NM ZONES AND 15-25 FT IN THE 20-60 NM ZONES. THESE HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK, ALTHOUGH
THE EVENTUAL END TIME IS STILL UNCERTAIN.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT MONDAY FOR NCZ046-094-
194.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT MONDAY FOR NCZ047-081-203>205.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 6 AM SUNDAY TO 11 AM EDT MONDAY
FOR NCZ195.
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 8 AM EDT SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING FOR NCZ195-196-199-203>205.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT MONDAY FOR NCZ196.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT MONDAY FOR NCZ196.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 PM EDT MONDAY
FOR NCZ196-204.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR NCZ203.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR NCZ203-205.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR NCZ204-205.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT MONDAY NIGHT FOR AMZ131-156-
158-188-230.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ135-150-152-154-
180-182-184-186-231.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT MONDAY NIGHT FOR
AMZ136.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ137.
DISCUSSION...RM/TL/RJ
AVIATION...RM/TL
MARINE...RM/TL/RJ
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