500
FXUS62 KMHX 180754
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
354 AM EDT SUN OCT 18 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
CONFIDENCE HIGH ON COASTAL LOW LINGERING OFFSHORE AND DEEPENING
IN THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. INCREASED WIND GUSTS MONDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A SLOW MOVING NOR'EASTER TAKING SHAPE WELL OFF THE COAST
BRINGING A LONG DURATION WIND AND SWELL EVENT WITH HIGH IMPACTS
FOR PARTS OF THE NC COAST INTO THE WORK WEEK.
2) DRASTICALLY COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT AND LOW FOR SUNDAY INTO
THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK, ALONG WITH CONTINUED BREEZY
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS.
MARINE: GALE WARNINGS IN EFFECT. PROLONGED PERIOD OF STRONG
WINDS AND HIGH SEAS AS NOR'EASTER LINGERS OFFSHORE THROUGH AT
LEAST MID WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...THE NOR'EASTER IS SITTING WELL OFFSHORE, WITH
THE RAP MSLP AT A MINIMUM OF 1009MB. AS HIGH BUILDS IN THE WAKE
OF THE COLD FRONT, STRONG CAA AND GUSTY NRLY WINDS CONTINUE,
AIDED BY THE DEEPENING LOW OFFSHORE. THERE CONTINUES TO BE HIGH
CONFIDENCE THAT A STRONG NOR'EASTER WILL STRENGTHEN AND LINGER
WELL OFF THE CAROLINA COAST THROUGH EARLY/MID THIS WORK WEEK.
STRONG WINDS, HIGH WAVES, AND COASTAL FLOODING AS WELL AS
EXTREMELY DANGEROUS MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE.
THERE IS STILL MODEL UNCERTAINTY BEYOND EARLY WEEK ON WHERE THE
LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL BE, BUT THE TREND IN 18/00Z GLOBAL
GUIDANCE INCLUDING ENSEMBLE PACKET HAS CONTINUED TO SHOW A SHIFT
A BIT FURTHER OFFSHORE. OF NOTE, QUICK STRENGTHENING OF THE LOW
AS IT MEANDERS OFFSHORE IN ADDITION TO A SLIGHT WESTWARD SHIFT
IS BEING INDICATED BY CAMS AND SOME SYNOPTIC GUIDANCE MONDAY. TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS, WIND GUSTS HAVE NUDGED UP A BIT MONDAY.
FURTHER INCREASES ARE POSSIBLE IF FUTURE GUIDANCE LOCKS IN ON
THIS TREND. CONFIDENCE IN COASTAL IMPACTS IS HIGH, AS LONG
DURATION AND LONG FETCH NERLY WINDS WILL BRING LARGE WAVES AND
PILE UP WATER ALONG THE COAST, LEADING TO COASTAL FLOODING WELL
INTO THE WEEK.
HIGH WINDS ON THE COAST STILL EXPECTED. HAVE DROPPED THE WIND
ADVISORY FOR MAINLAND HYDE WITH THE MOST RECENT FORECAST KEEPING
THE STRONGEST WINDS ALONG OBX. WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH MODEL
TRENDS IN CASE THE LOW DEEPENS SUBSTANTIALLY AND SHIFTS A BIT
WEST MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, IN WHICH CASE CHANCES OF STRONGER
WIND GUSTS NEAR 50MPH WOULD INCREASE.
2-4 FOOT ABOVE GROUND LEVEL COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH MINOR TO MODERATE IMPACTS THROUGHOUT THE OUTER BANKS, CORE
BANKS AND DOWNEAST CARTERET COUNTY. IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO
BOTH SOUND AND OCEANSIDE LOCALES WITH POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT
IMPACTS TO VULNERABLE AREAS ON THE OCEAN SIDE. A MIX OF COASTAL
FLOOD HEADLINES IS IN EFFECT TO COVER THESE HAZARDS. ONE RECENT
ADDITION TO THE SUITE OF COASTAL HEADLINES WAS TO ISSUE A
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR TYRRELL COUNTY. THE SHERIFF'S OFFICE
REPORTED HWY 94 IS FLOODED, WITH ADDITIONAL PUBLIC REPORTS OF
DEEP WATER ALONG THAT STRETCH OF HIGHWAY. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO
WATER PILING UP ON THE SOUTHERN END OF THE ALLIGATOR RIVER WITH
STRONG, GALE-FORCE WINDS BLOWING STRAIGHT SOUTH DOWN THE LENGTH
OF THE RIVER.
ADDITIONALLY, A HIGH SURF ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE OUTER
BANKS WITH BREAKING WAVES OF GENERALLY 8-14 FEET EXPECTED IN THE
SURF ZONE. A MODERATE TO HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS ALSO
EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.
KEY MESSAGE 2...TEMPERATURES HAVE COOLED SUBSTANTIALLY WITH THE
NORTHERLY SURGE. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE 60-70 DEGREE RANGE WITH COOLER VALUES
INLAND AND WARMER TEMPERATURES NEAR THE COAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL RANGE FROM THE 40S INLAND JUST AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TO
THE 50S BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH COASTAL LOCATIONS IN THE
50S EARLY IN THE FORECAST PERIOD TO NEAR 60 BY THE END OF NEXT
WEEK. WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY, PARTICULARLY IN THE AFTERNOONS
DEPENDING UPON THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF THE OFFSHORE NOR'EASTER.
AS THE LOW MEANDERS OFFSHORE, SOME WRAP AROUND RAIN MAY
OCCASIONALLY SNEAK BACK ONSHORE, WITH BEST CHANCES ON THE OBX
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH A NOR'EASTER STRENGTHENING
OFFSHORE AND A HIGH OVER THE OHIO VALLEY CONTINUES TO SUPPORT
GUSTY NORTH WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD. GUSTS OF 25-35KT WILL BE
COMMON.
WHILE VFR IS LIKELY TO PREVAIL ON SUNDAY, SCT CUMULUS CLOUDS ON
THE NW SIDE OF THE LOW MAY BRIEFLY REACH BKN COVERAGE WITH CIGS
AROUND 3-5K FT.
OUTLOOK (SUN NIGHT THROUGH THU): VFR BUT WINDY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED NEXT WEEK AS THE OFFSHORE LOW REMAINS WELL EAST OF THE
COAST. INLAND WINDS WOULD BE HIGHEST DURING THE DAYTIME WITH
BETTER MIXING.
MARINE
LATEST OBS SHOW NORTHERLY WINDS OF 25-35KT SUSTAINED, WITH PEAK
GUSTS OF 30-45KT. SEAS CONTINUE TO BUILD, WITH BUOYS EAST OF
THE OUTER BANKS REPORTING 10-14 FT CLOSEST TO SHORE AND 12-18FT
LIKELY OFFSHORE. PERIODS HAVE BUILT TO 9-13S. SOUTH OF CAPE
LOOKOUT, SEAS OF 6-10FT AT 7-9S ARE BEING REPORTED.
HAVE CONVERTED REMAINING STORM WARNINGS TO GALE WARNINGS, AS
SURGE OF WINDS NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD ~50 KT.
VERY DANGEROUS MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AS LOW PRESSURE
IS FORMING WELL OFF THE NC COAST BUT CONT TO SUPPLY A STEADY
FETCH OF STRONG NERLY WINDS INTO ENC. GALE WARNINGS ARE IN
EFFECT THROUGH WED, AND MAY HAVE TO BE EXTENDED WITH ONCOMING
FCST SHIFTS ESP IF COASTAL STORM STALLS OFF THE COAST THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. THERE IS LARGE MODEL SPREAD BEYOND EARLY WEEK ON
HOW LONG THE LOW WILL MEANDER, AS A BLOCKING PATTERN REMAINS TO
THE NORTH AND EAST.
OUTLOOK (SUN NIGHT THROUGH THU): WAVE PERIODS WILL PEAK AROUND
13-15S INTO MID WEEK AS WAVES BUILD TO 7-15 FT IN THE 0-20NM
ZONES AND 15-25 FT IN THE 20-60 NM ZONES. THESE HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK, ALTHOUGH THE
EVENTUAL END TIME IS STILL UNCERTAIN.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT MONDAY FOR NCZ046-094-
194.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT MONDAY FOR NCZ047-196.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NCZ195.
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH
THIS EVENING FOR NCZ195-196-199-203>205.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT MONDAY FOR NCZ196.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT MONDAY FOR NCZ196-204.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR NCZ203.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR NCZ203-205.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR NCZ203>205.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR NCZ204-205.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ131-156-158-188-230.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ135-150-152-154-
180-182-184-186-231.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ136.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ137.
DISCUSSION...TL/RJ
AVIATION...RJ
MARINE...TL/RJ
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