100
FXUS62 KMHX 210039
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
839 PM EDT TUE OCT 20 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR THE OBX
VARIOUS MARINE HEADLINES HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED BASED ON THE LATEST
TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS.
THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR DOWNEAST CARTERET COUNTY HAS
BEEN CANCELLED.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A SLOW MOVING NOR'EASTER CONTINUES DEEPEN WELL OFFSHORE,
IMPACTING THE COASTAL AREAS.
2) DRY WITH COOLER THAN AVG CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEK.
MARINE: GALE WARNINGS CONTINUE IN EFFECT. PROLONGED PERIOD OF
STRONG WINDS AND HIGH SEAS AS NOR'EASTER LINGERS OFFSHORE
THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER
OFF THE NC AND MID-ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH MID WEEK BRINGING
PROLONGED STRONG NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ACROSS ENC.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THE LOW WOBBLING A BIT OFF THE COAST
WHILE DEEPENING TONIGHT AS IT SLOWLY LIFTS NORTHWARD OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST, AS THE SYSTEM REMAINS CUT-OFF FROM THE MEAN
FLOW ALOFT. WINDS MAY INCREASE AGAIN TONIGHT, WITH ANOTHER SURGE
POTENTIALLY ON WEDNESDAY, SO WILL MAKE VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO
WINDS AT THIS TIME. IT IS NOT UNTIL THURSDAY THAT THE LOW WILL
BEGIN TO ACCELERATE AWAY FROM THE EAST COAST AS A NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST.
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENTS BETWEEN THE OFFSHORE LOW AND HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS WILL BRING MODERATE NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS
ACROSS THE OUTER BANKS WHERE GUSTS 35-40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE.
THE ONE CHANGE THAT WAS MADE THIS EVENING WAS TO CANCEL THE WIND
ADVISORY FOR THE OBX. WINDS HAVEN'T BEEN AS STRONG THIS
EVENING, AND GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WINDS SHOULD STAY JUST BELOW WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THE STRONG WINDS OFFSHORE CONTINUE TO BRING LARGE SURF ALONG
THE COAST AS WELL AS COASTAL FLOODING IMPACTS ALONG VULNERABLE
LOCATIONS OF THE COAST, ESPECIALLY ALONG HATTERAS AND OCRACOKE
ISLANDS WHERE DUNE STRUCTURE IS FRAGILE. THE NATIONAL PARKS
SERVICE AND NCDOT HAVE RECENTLY REPORTED SUBSTANTIAL BEACH
EROSION FROM SOUTH NAGS HEAD TO BUXTON, ALONG WITH SIGNIFICANT
OVERWASH OCCURRING ON SIDE STREETS IN RODANTHE. DUE TO HAZARDOUS
ROAD CONDITIONS AND FLOODING, NC-12 REMAINS CLOSED FROM THE
MARC BASNIGHT BRIDGE TO RODANTHE, AND FERRY SERVICE REMAINS
SUSPENDED IN CERTAIN LOCATIONS. ADDITIONALLY, WEBCAMS THIS
EVENING SHOW AT LEAST ONE SECTION OF THE PEA ISLAND DUNE
STRUCTURE HAS BEEN WASHED AWAY.
EACH SUBSEQUENT HIGH TIDE CYCLE WILL CONTINUE TO THREATEN THE
DUNES FURTHER, AND THE THREAT OF ADDITIONAL IMPACTS TO HWY 12
REMAIN. MINOR SOUNDSIDE FLOODING IS ALSO A CONCERN ALONG
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE PAMLICO SOUND, INCLUDING FRISCO AND
OCRACOKE. A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR HATTERAS
AND OCRACOKE ISLANDS AND A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN OUTER BANKS. ADDITIONALLY, A HIGH SURF
ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR CAPE LOOKOUT AND POINTS NORTH THROUGH THE
OBX. FOR DOWNEAST CARTERET COUNTY, THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY
HAS BEEN CANCELLED AS WATER LEVELS HAVE RECEDED, AND ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED TO RISE AGAIN.
KEY MESSAGE 2...PLEASANTLY COOLER AIR MASS THAT HAS ADVECTED IN
WILL REMAIN WITH US THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH TEMPS A
BIT BELOW CLIMO. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE 60-70 DEGREE RANGE. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL RANGE FROM THE 40S INLAND TO THE 50S COAST.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
A NOR'EASTER IS CLEARLY EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS
EVENING, AND IS LOCATED ROUGHLY 380 MILES ENE OF CAPE HATTERAS.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS FINALLY RELAXED SOME WHICH HAS ALLOWED
WINDS TO DECREASE AT ALL TAF SITES. WHILE ANOTHER ROUND OF
GUSTY WINDS IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY, THE OVERALL TREND IS FOR
WINDS TO CONTINUE TO STEP DOWN. WITH VERY DRY AIR IN PLACE WEST
OF THE LOW, SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
OUTLOOK (THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY): VFR AND BREEZY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS THE
OFFSHORE LOW REMAINS WELL OFFSHORE AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH. INLAND WINDS WOULD BE HIGHEST DURING THE DAYTIME WITH
BETTER MIXING AND GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20 KT EACH DAY.
MARINE
DANGEROUS MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK AS
LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS WELL OFF THE NC COAST BUT CONTINUE TO
SUPPLY A STEADY FETCH OF STRONG N-NERLY WINDS INTO ENC WITH
LARGE EAST- NORTHEASTERLY SWELLS.
LATEST OBS SHOW N-NNE WINDS 15-25 KT ACROSS THE RIVERS AND
20-30 KT GUSTING 25-35 KT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS, WITH SEAS
5-7 FT SOUTH OF LOOKOUT AND 10-15+ FT NORTH. WINDS HAVEN'T
INCREASED AS MUCH AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT, BUT THERE STILL APPEARS
TO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR THEM TO BUILD FURTHER OVERNIGHT OR ON
WEDNESDAY. IN LIGHT OF THIS, MOST MARINE HEADLINES REMAIN IN
TACT. HOWEVER, WHERE WINDS HAVE SUBSTANTIALLY LAID DOWN, SOME
HEADLINES WERE ADJUSTED TO REFLECT THESE TRENDS. WILL NOT SEE
MUCH IMPROVEMENT IN THE SEAS THROUGH MID WEEK.
OUTLOOK (THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY): WINDS WILL DIMINISH SUFFICIENTLY
THURSDAY THAT THE SOUNDS AND RIVERS ARE EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY
DROP BELOW SCA CRITERIA, HOWEVER VERY LARGE SEAS AS HIGH AS
10-15 FT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS
INCREASING AGAIN FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ196-204.
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR NCZ196-203>205.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ203.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR NCZ203-205.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ204-205.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ131-230-
231.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ135-186.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ156-158.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ180-182-184.
DISCUSSION...RM/CQD/SK
AVIATION...RM/SK
MARINE...RM/CQD/SK
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