553
FXUS62 KMHX 211754
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
154 PM EDT WED OCT 21 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVING ALONG PORTIONS OF THE COAST.
ADJUSTED MARINE AND CF HEADLINES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A SLOW MOVING NOR'EASTER WELL OFFSHORE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
IMPACTS ALONG THE OUTER BANKS.
2) DRY WITH COOLER THAN AVG CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEK.
3) BREEZY NE WINDS AND HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL BRING THE
POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL COASTAL IMPACTS FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND.
MARINE: GALE WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE
OFFSHORE COASTAL WATERS INTO THIS EVENING. LARGE SEAS WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS INTO NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE AS
NOR'EASTER LIFTS AWAY FROM THE AREA. LARGE SURF CONTINUES AS
WELL AS COASTAL FLOODING IMPACTS ALONG VULNERABLE LOCATIONS OF
THE COAST, ESPECIALLY ALONG HATTERAS ISLAND WHERE DUNE STRUCTURE
IS FRAGILE. THE NATIONAL PARKS SERVICE AND NCDOT HAVE REPORTED
SUBSTANTIAL BEACH EROSION FROM SOUTH NAGS HEAD TO BUXTON, ALONG
WITH SIGNIFICANT OVERWASH OCCURRING ON SIDE STREETS IN RODANTHE.
DUE TO HAZARDOUS ROAD CONDITIONS AND FLOODING, NC-12 REMAINS
CLOSED FROM THE MARC BASNIGHT BRIDGE TO RODANTHE, AND FERRY
SERVICE REMAINS SUSPENDED IN CERTAIN LOCATIONS. EACH SUBSEQUENT
HIGH TIDE CYCLE WILL CONTINUE TO THREATEN THE DUNES FURTHER, AND
THE THREAT OF ADDITIONAL IMPACTS TO HWY 12 REMAIN. THE NEXT
HIGH TIDE IS AROUND 430 PM THIS AFTERNOON AND 5 AM THURSDAY
MORNING. A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR HATTERAS
ISLAND AND A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THE NORTHERN OUTER
BANKS AND OCRACOKE ISLAND. ADDITIONALLY, A HIGH SURF ADVISORY
CONTINUES FOR THE BEACHES FROM DUCK TO CAPE HATTERAS WHERE SURF
HEIGHTS 8-12 FT WILL CONTINUE INTO THU.
KEY MESSAGE 2...PLEASANTLY COOLER AIR MASS WILL REMAIN WITH US
THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH TEMPS A BIT BELOW CLIMO.
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S RANGE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE 40S INLAND TO THE 50S COAST.
KEY MESSAGE 3...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH
AND LOW PRESSURE WELL OFF THE SE COAST WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD
OF BREEZY TO STRONG NE WINDS FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND, MAINLY
ALONG THE COAST. THIS COMBINED WITH HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES
COULD LEAD TO ADDITIONAL MINOR COASTAL IMPACTS (COASTAL FLOODING
AND ROUGH SURF).
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE WITH GUSTS AROUND
15-20 KT AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH DAYTIME MIXING.
OUTLOOK (FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY): VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH.
MARINE
CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVING. LATEST OBS SHOW N-NNE WINDS 10-20
KT ACROSS THE RIVERS AND SOUNDS, AND 15-25 KT GUSTING 25-35 KT
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS, WITH SEAS 4-7 FT SOUTH OF LOOKOUT AND
10-15+ FT NORTH. EXPECT SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LOW VERY SLOWLY DRIFTS NORTHWARD AND
DEEPENS, BUT WILL SEE WINDS BEGIN TO DECREASE TONIGHT AS THE LOW
DRIFTS FARTHER AWAY FROM THE AREA. SEAS WILL ONLY SUBSIDE BY A
COUPLE OF FEET TONIGHT WITH LARGE SWELLS PERSISTING. DROPPED
GALE WARNINGS FOR THE NEARSHORE COASTAL WATERS, AND CONTINUE FOR
PORTIONS OF THE OFFSHORE COASTAL WATERS INTO THIS EVENING. WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THU, THOUGH LARGE SEAS WILL PERSIST ACROSS
THE COASTAL WATERS.
OUTLOOK (FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY): WINDS AND SEAS INCREASING
AGAIN FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE NORTH. THIS IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO EXTENDED PERIOD OF
SCA CONDITIONS, POSSIBLY GALES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OUTER
WATERS.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ196-
203>205.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR NCZ203.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR NCZ203-205.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR NCZ204.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR NCZ205.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ131-
230.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ135-231.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ156-158.
GALE WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR AMZ180-182-184.
DISCUSSION...CQD/SK
AVIATION...CQD/SK
MARINE...CQD/SK
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