473
FXUS62 KMHX 212312
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
712 PM EDT WED OCT 21 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVING ALONG PORTIONS OF THE COAST.
ADJUSTED MARINE HEADLINES. UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A SLOW MOVING NOR'EASTER WELL OFFSHORE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
IMPACTS ALONG THE OUTER BANKS.
2) DRY WITH COOLER THAN AVG CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEK.
3) BREEZY NE WINDS AND HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL BRING THE
POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL COASTAL IMPACTS FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND.
MARINE: LEFTOVER GALE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN CANCELLED THIS
EVENING. LARGE SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING HAZARDOUS BOATING
CONDITIONS INTO NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE AS
NOR'EASTER LIFTS AWAY FROM THE AREA. LARGE SURF CONTINUES AS
WELL AS COASTAL FLOODING IMPACTS ALONG VULNERABLE LOCATIONS OF
THE COAST, ESPECIALLY ALONG HATTERAS ISLAND WHERE DUNE STRUCTURE
IS FRAGILE. THE NATIONAL PARKS SERVICE AND NCDOT HAVE REPORTED
SUBSTANTIAL BEACH EROSION FROM SOUTH NAGS HEAD TO BUXTON, ALONG
WITH SIGNIFICANT OVERWASH OCCURRING ON SIDE STREETS IN RODANTHE.
DUE TO HAZARDOUS ROAD CONDITIONS AND FLOODING, NC-12 REMAINS
CLOSED FROM THE MARC BASNIGHT BRIDGE TO RODANTHE, AND FERRY
SERVICE REMAINS SUSPENDED IN CERTAIN LOCATIONS. EACH SUBSEQUENT
HIGH TIDE CYCLE WILL CONTINUE TO THREATEN THE DUNES FURTHER, AND
THE THREAT OF ADDITIONAL IMPACTS TO HWY 12 REMAIN. THE NEXT
HIGH TIDE IS AROUND 430 PM THIS AFTERNOON AND 5 AM THURSDAY
MORNING. A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR HATTERAS
ISLAND AND A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THE NORTHERN OUTER
BANKS AND OCRACOKE ISLAND. ADDITIONALLY, A HIGH SURF ADVISORY
CONTINUES FOR THE BEACHES FROM DUCK TO CAPE HATTERAS WHERE SURF
HEIGHTS 8-12 FT WILL CONTINUE INTO THU.
KEY MESSAGE 2...PLEASANTLY COOLER AIR MASS WILL REMAIN WITH US
THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH TEMPS A BIT BELOW CLIMO.
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S RANGE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE 40S INLAND TO THE 50S COAST.
KEY MESSAGE 3...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH
AND LOW PRESSURE WELL OFF THE SE COAST WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD
OF BREEZY TO STRONG NE WINDS FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND, MAINLY
ALONG THE COAST. THIS COMBINED WITH HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES
COULD LEAD TO ADDITIONAL MINOR COASTAL IMPACTS (COASTAL FLOODING
AND ROUGH SURF).
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD
AS LIGHT N'RLY WINDS, DRY WEATHER, AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
PERSIST. ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS THE OBX WHERE SOME MVFR
CEILINGS MAY HANG ON UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT BEFORE SKIES CLEAR.
N'RLY WINDS THEN INCREASE SLIGHTLY THURS AFTERNOON TO 5-10 KTS
WITH GUSTS UP TOWARDS 15 KTS AT TIMES, BUT ENC REMAINS DRY AND
UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
OUTLOOK (FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY): VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH.
MARINE
BIGGEST CHANGE WAS TO CANCEL THE GALE WARNINGS ALONG THE OUTER
WATERS AS LATEST OBS AROUND THE AREA SUGGEST WIND GUSTS HAVE
FALLEN WELL BELOW 35 KTS HERE. OTHERWISE THE FORECAST REMAINS ON
TRACK.
PREV DISC...CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVING. LATEST OBS SHOW
N-NNE WINDS 10-20 KT ACROSS THE RIVERS AND SOUNDS, AND 15-25 KT
GUSTING 25-30 KT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS, WITH SEAS 4-7 FT
SOUTH OF LOOKOUT AND 10-15+ FT NORTH. EXPECT SIMILAR CONDITIONS
TO PERSIST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LOW VERY SLOWLY DRIFTS
NORTHWARD AND DEEPENS, BUT WILL SEE WINDS BEGIN TO DECREASE
TONIGHT AS THE LOW DRIFTS FARTHER AWAY FROM THE AREA. SEAS WILL
ONLY SUBSIDE BY A COUPLE OF FEET TONIGHT WITH LARGE SWELLS
PERSISTING. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THU, THOUGH LARGE
SEAS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS.
OUTLOOK (FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY): WINDS AND SEAS INCREASING
AGAIN FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE NORTH. THIS IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO EXTENDED PERIOD OF
SCA CONDITIONS, POSSIBLY GALES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OUTER
WATERS.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ196-
203>205.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR NCZ203.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR NCZ203-205.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR NCZ204.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR NCZ205.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ131-
230.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ135-231.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ156-158.
DISCUSSION...CQD/SK
AVIATION...CQD/SK/RCF
MARINE...CQD/SK/RCF
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