721
FXUS62 KMHX 221045
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
645 AM EDT THU OCT 22 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
CANCELLED THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR OCRACOKE.
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE MARINE HEADLINES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A SLOW MOVING NOR'EASTER WELL OFFSHORE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
IMPACTS ALONG THE OUTER BANKS.
2) DRY WITH COOLER THAN AVG CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEK.
3) BREEZY NE WINDS AND HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL BRING THE
POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL COASTAL IMPACTS FRIDAY INTO INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
MARINE: LARGE SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING HAZARDOUS BOATING
CONDITIONS INTO NEXT WEEK. STRONG SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...SUBTROPICAL STORM JOSEPHINE, LOCATED APPROX 400
NE OF CAPE HATTERAS, WILL BEGIN TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD
TODAY AS A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO THE NORTHEAST
CONUS. WHILE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY, LARGE SURF WILL CONTINUE TO BRING COASTAL FLOODING
IMPACTS ALONG VULNERABLE LOCATIONS OF THE COAST, ESPECIALLY
ALONG HATTERAS ISLAND WHERE DUNE STRUCTURE IS FRAGILE. THE
NATIONAL PARKS SERVICE AND NCDOT HAVE REPORTED SUBSTANTIAL BEACH
EROSION FROM SOUTH NAGS HEAD TO BUXTON, ALONG WITH SIGNIFICANT
OVERWASH OCCURRING ON SIDE STREETS IN RODANTHE. DUE TO HAZARDOUS
ROAD CONDITIONS AND FLOODING, NC-12 REMAINS CLOSED FROM THE
MARC BASNIGHT BRIDGE TO RODANTHE. THE NEXT HIGH TIDES ARE AROUND
5 AM AND 5 PM TODAY. A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR HATTERAS ISLAND AND A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THE
NORTHERN OUTER BANKS. HAVE CANCELLED THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR OCRACOKE ISLAND. ADDITIONALLY, A HIGH SURF ADVISORY
CONTINUES FOR THE BEACHES FROM DUCK TO CAPE HATTERAS WHERE SURF
HEIGHTS 8-12 FT WILL CONTINUE TODAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...PLEASANTLY COOLER AIR MASS WILL REMAIN WITH US
THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH TEMPS A BIT BELOW CLIMO.
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S RANGE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE 40S INLAND TO THE 50S COAST. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS
INLAND FROM THE COAST HAVE ALLOWED THE COLDEST LOCATIONS TO DROP
INTO THE UPPER 30S. COULD SEE A FEW UPPER 30S AGAIN TONIGHT WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS EXPECTED. A BIT MORE MIXING ENSUES
FRIDAY NIGHT AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH
PREVENTING TEMPS FROM CRATERING.
KEY MESSAGE 3...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH
AND LOW PRESSURE WELL OFF THE SE COAST WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD
OF BREEZY TO STRONG NE WINDS RETURNING LATE FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST, ESPECIALLY SOUTH
OF CAPE HATTERAS WHERE GRADIENTS WILL BE TIGHTEST. THIS,
COMBINED WITH DEVELOPING KING TIDES COULD LEAD TO ADDITIONAL
MINOR COASTAL IMPACTS (COASTAL FLOODING AND ROUGH SURF).
AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD UNDER MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS EXPECTED AGAIN
TONIGHT WHICH MAY ALLOW PATCHY SHALLOW FOG TO DEVELOP WITH
VSBYS OCCASIONALLY DROPPING BETWEEN 1-3SM AT TIMES BUT LITTLE
TO NO IMPACTS EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER TODAY, MAINLY
AROUND 5-10 KT. COASTAL TERMINALS COULD SEE GUSTS TO AROUND 20
KT
OUTLOOK (FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY): VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH.
MARINE
CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY IMPROVE ACROSS THE WATERS. LATEST
OBS SHOW N-NNE WINDS 5-15 KT ACROSS THE RIVERS AND SOUNDS, AND
10-20 KT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS, WITH SEAS 3-6 FT SOUTH OF
LOOKOUT AND 10-15+ FT NORTH. SUBTROPICAL STORM JOSEPHINE WILL
ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD TODAY AND EXPECT SEAS TO CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY SUBSIDE TO AROUND 2-5 FT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS AND
5-9 FT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS BY LATE TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK (FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY): WINDS AND SEAS INCREASING
AGAIN FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE NORTH. THIS IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO EXTENDED PERIOD OF
SCA CONDITIONS, POSSIBLY GALES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OUTER
WATERS. GRADIENTS WILL BE TIGHTEST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS
WITH HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR GALES ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS SOUTH
OF CAPE HATTERAS AS WELL AS NEAR SHORE ONSLOW BAY.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ203.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ203-205.
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NCZ203-205.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ205.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ156-
158.
DISCUSSION...CQD/SK
AVIATION...CQD/SK/RCF
MARINE...CQD/SK/RCF
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