111
FXUS62 KMHX 221903
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
303 PM EDT THU OCT 22 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE MARINE HEADLINES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A SLOW MOVING NOR'EASTER WELL OFFSHORE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
IMPACTS ALONG THE OUTER BANKS.
2) DRY WITH COOLER THAN AVG CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
3) BREEZY NE WINDS AND HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL BRING THE
POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL COASTAL IMPACTS FRIDAY INTO INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
MARINE: LARGE SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING HAZARDOUS BOATING
CONDITIONS INTO NEXT WEEK. STRONG SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...SUBTROPICAL STORM JOSEPHINE, CONTINUES TO ACCELERATE
NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM OUR AREA. AS EXPECTED A MARKED DECREASE
IN WINDS HAVE OCCURRED WITH SEAS STILL RUNNING QUITE HIGH OFF
OUR COAST, BUT LOWER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS. WITH CONTINUED LARGE
SURF AND LONGER PERIOD SWELL, COASTAL FLOODING IMPACTS ALONG
VULNERABLE LOCATIONS OF THE COAST WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY ALONG HATTERAS ISLAND WHERE DUNE STRUCTURE
IS FRAGILE. THE NATIONAL PARKS SERVICE AND NCDOT HAVE REPORTED
SUBSTANTIAL BEACH EROSION FROM SOUTH NAGS HEAD TO BUXTON, ALONG
WITH SIGNIFICANT OVERWASH OCCURRING ON SIDE STREETS IN RODANTHE.
DUE TO HAZARDOUS ROAD CONDITIONS AND FLOODING, NC-12 REMAINS
CLOSED FROM THE MARC BASNIGHT BRIDGE TO RODANTHE. THE NEXT HIGH
TIDES ARE AROUND 5 PM TODAY. A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR HATTERAS ISLAND AND A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THE
NORTHERN OUTER BANKS. ADDITIONALLY, A HIGH SURF ADVISORY
CONTINUES FOR THE BEACHES FROM DUCK TO CAPE HATTERAS WHERE SURF
HEIGHTS 8-12 FT WILL THROUGH EARLY EVENING. BEYOND TONIGHT,
AAFTERNOONCONTINUED LOWERING TREND IN WAVES AND SWELL WILL
GRADUALLY GIVE US A LULL FRIDAY BEFORE CONDITIONS PICK UP AGAIN
(SEE KEY MESSAGE 3 BELOW). IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT ALTHOUGH
WATER LEVELS MAY FALL BELOW TYPICAL VALUES THAT WOULD CAUSE
FLOODING, DUE TO THE EXTENSIVE EROSION AND DUNE LOSS, IMPACTS
FRIDAY MAY STILL CONTINUE.
KEY MESSAGE 2...PLEASANTLY COOLER AIR MASS WILL REMAIN WITH US
THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH TEMPS A BIT BELOW CLIMO.
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S RANGE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE 40S INLAND TO THE 50S COAST. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT. WITH AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS
IN THE UPPER 30S, LOWS IN OUR TYPICAL COLD SPOTS SHOULD DROP
INTO THE 30S ONCE AGAIN. MODEL SOUNDINGS DO SHOW JUST A FEW MORE
KNOTS OF WIND IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER COMPARED TO YESTERDAY, SO WE
MAY NOT BE QUITE AS COLD AS LAST NIGHT. A BIT MORE MIXING
ENSUES FRIDAY NIGHT AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
NORTH PREVENTING TEMPS FROM CRATERING.
KEY MESSAGE 3...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH
AND LOW PRESSURE WELL OFF THE SE COAST WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD
OF BREEZY TO STRONG NE WINDS RETURNING LATE FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST, ESPECIALLY SOUTH
OF CAPE HATTERAS WHERE GRADIENTS WILL BE TIGHTEST. THIS,
COMBINED WITH DEVELOPING KING TIDES COULD LEAD TO ADDITIONAL
MINOR COASTAL IMPACTS (COASTAL FLOODING AND ROUGH SURF).
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. A FEW GUSTS OVER 15 KTS
POSSIBLE FOR A TIME THIS AFTERNOON BUT OVERALL NE WINDS LESS
THAN 10 KTS. WE MAY HAVE SOME PATCHY FOG AFTER 06Z WITH BRIEF
MVFR VSYBS POSSIBLE. TOO LOW OF CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE IN THE
TAFS NOW, ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING OUR WIND MAY BE A FEW MORE
KNOTS HIGHER THAN THIS MORNING. VFR FRIDAY.
OUTLOOK (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY): VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH.
MARINE
CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY IMPROVE ACROSS THE WATERS, ENOUGH
SO WE WERE ABLE TO DROP THE SCA SOUTH OF OCRACOKE INLET. FARTHER
NORTH, STILL SEEING SOME LONG PERIOD SWELL ESPECIALLY NORTH OF
CAPE HATTERAS, WITH 10 FOOT WAVES AT 13 SECONDS EAST OF OREGON
INLET. WAVES NORTH OF CAPE HATTERAS COME DOWN ESPECIALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT BUT REMAIN ELEVATED FRIDAY BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN LATE
IN THE DAY. SCA CONDITIONS RETURN TO ALL COASTAL WATERS (THAT
DON'T ALREADY HAVE A SCA OUT) BY AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY): WINDS AND SEAS
INCREASING AGAIN FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. THIS IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO EXTENDED
PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS, POSSIBLY GALES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
OUTER WATERS. GRADIENTS WILL BE TIGHTEST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
WATERS WITH HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR GALES ACROSS THE OUTER
WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE HATTERAS AS WELL AS NEAR SHORE ONSLOW BAY.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ203-
205.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ203.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ203-205.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ205.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM FRIDAY TO 8 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
AMZ156-158.
DISCUSSION...EH/SK
AVIATION...EH/SK
MARINE...EH/SK
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