309
FXUS62 KMHX 222323
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
723 PM EDT THU OCT 22 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE MARINE HEADLINES.
ADJUSTED DEWPOINTS AND TEMPERATURES DOWN THIS EVENING.
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A SLOW MOVING NOR'EASTER WELL OFFSHORE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
IMPACTS ALONG THE OUTER BANKS.
2) DRY WITH COOLER THAN AVG CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
3) BREEZY NE WINDS AND HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL BRING THE
POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL COASTAL IMPACTS FRIDAY INTO INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
MARINE: LARGE SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING HAZARDOUS BOATING
CONDITIONS INTO NEXT WEEK. STRONG SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...SUBTROPICAL STORM JOSEPHINE, CONTINUES TO ACCELERATE
NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM OUR AREA. AS EXPECTED A MARKED DECREASE
IN WINDS HAVE OCCURRED WITH SEAS STILL RUNNING QUITE HIGH OFF
OUR COAST, BUT LOWER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS. WITH CONTINUED LARGE
SURF AND LONGER PERIOD SWELL, COASTAL FLOODING IMPACTS ALONG
VULNERABLE LOCATIONS OF THE COAST WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY ALONG HATTERAS ISLAND WHERE DUNE STRUCTURE
IS FRAGILE. THE NATIONAL PARKS SERVICE AND NCDOT HAVE REPORTED
SUBSTANTIAL BEACH EROSION FROM SOUTH NAGS HEAD TO BUXTON, ALONG
WITH SIGNIFICANT OVERWASH OCCURRING ON SIDE STREETS IN RODANTHE.
DUE TO HAZARDOUS ROAD CONDITIONS AND FLOODING, NC-12 REMAINS
CLOSED FROM THE MARC BASNIGHT BRIDGE TO RODANTHE. THE NEXT HIGH
TIDES ARE AROUND 530AM FRIDAY. A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING REMAINS
IN EFFECT FOR HATTERAS ISLAND AND A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR
THE NORTHERN OUTER BANKS. ADDITIONALLY, A HIGH SURF ADVISORY
CONTINUES FOR THE BEACHES FROM DUCK TO CAPE HATTERAS WHERE SURF
HEIGHTS 8-12 FT WILL THROUGH EARLY EVENING. BEYOND TONIGHT,
CONTINUED LOWERING TREND IN WAVES AND SWELL WILL GRADUALLY GIVE
US A LULL FRIDAY BEFORE CONDITIONS PICK UP AGAIN (SEE KEY
MESSAGE 3 BELOW). IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT ALTHOUGH WATER LEVELS
MAY FALL BELOW TYPICAL VALUES THAT WOULD CAUSE FLOODING, DUE TO
THE EXTENSIVE EROSION AND DUNE LOSS, IMPACTS FRIDAY MAY STILL
CONTINUE.
KEY MESSAGE 2...MADE SOME SLIGHT TWEAKS TO THE DEWPOINT AND
TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT GIVEN PREVIOUS DAYS COLD
WEATHER. EXPECT DEWPOINTS TO RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 30S
TONIGHT AND WITH WINDS POTENTIALLY DECOUPLING AGAIN LATE
TONIGHT, WE COULD SEE TEMPS LOWER INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S AS
WELL ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MORE SHELTERED LOCATIONS SUCH AS
WALLACE OR KENANSVILLE. THIS IN TURN COULD BRING A PATCHY FROST
THREAT TO PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL PLAIN TONIGHT, THOUGH A BIG
CAVEAT IN THIS THREAT IS THAT IT MAY BE TOO DRY FOR FROST
FORMATION EVEN WITH THE COLD AIR IN PLACE. OTHERWISE THE REST OF
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH DRY WEATHER AND CLEAR SKIES
FORECAST THIS EVENING ACROSS ENC.
PLEASANTLY COOLER AIR MASS WILL REMAIN WITH US
THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH TEMPS A BIT BELOW CLIMO.
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S RANGE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE 40S INLAND TO THE 50S COAST. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT. WITH AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS
IN THE UPPER 30S, LOWS IN OUR TYPICAL COLD SPOTS SHOULD DROP
INTO THE 30S ONCE AGAIN. MODEL SOUNDINGS DO SHOW JUST A FEW MORE
KNOTS OF WIND IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER COMPARED TO YESTERDAY, SO WE
MAY NOT BE QUITE AS COLD AS LAST NIGHT. A BIT MORE MIXING
ENSUES FRIDAY NIGHT AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
NORTH PREVENTING TEMPS FROM CRATERING.
KEY MESSAGE 3...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH
AND LOW PRESSURE WELL OFF THE SE COAST WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD
OF BREEZY TO STRONG NE WINDS RETURNING LATE FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST, ESPECIALLY SOUTH
OF CAPE HATTERAS WHERE GRADIENTS WILL BE TIGHTEST. THIS,
COMBINED WITH DEVELOPING KING TIDES COULD LEAD TO ADDITIONAL
MINOR COASTAL IMPACTS (COASTAL FLOODING AND ROUGH SURF).
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE
AREA REMAINS UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS THROUGH
FRIDAY. WILL NOTE WE COULD ONCE AGAIN DECOUPLE WHICH WOULD ALLOW
FOR TEMPERATURES TO GET INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S TONIGHT. THIS
IN TURN COULD LEAD TO A VERY LOW CHANCE (10% OR LESS) OF STEAM
FOG BY THE TERMINALS NEAR RIVERS (PRIMARILY PGV WHERE THE
LOWEST TEMPS WOULD OCCUR). AS A RESULT WE MAY HAVE SOME PATCHY
FOG AFTER 06Z WITH BRIEF MVFR VSYBS POSSIBLE. TOO LOW OF
CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS NOW. EITHER WAY THINK ANY
STEAM FOG DEVELOPMENT WOULD HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON OPERATIONS
EVEN IF IT DOES DEVELOP. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT, EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH FRI.
OUTLOOK (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY): VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH.
MARINE
CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY IMPROVE ACROSS THE WATERS, ENOUGH
SO WE WERE ABLE TO DROP THE SCA SOUTH OF OCRACOKE INLET. FARTHER
NORTH, STILL SEEING SOME LONG PERIOD SWELL ESPECIALLY NORTH OF
CAPE HATTERAS, WITH 10 FOOT WAVES AT 13 SECONDS EAST OF OREGON
INLET. WAVES NORTH OF CAPE HATTERAS COME DOWN ESPECIALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT BUT REMAIN ELEVATED FRIDAY BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN LATE
IN THE DAY. SCA CONDITIONS RETURN TO ALL COASTAL WATERS (THAT
DON'T ALREADY HAVE A SCA OUT) BY AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY): WINDS AND SEAS
INCREASING AGAIN FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. THIS IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO EXTENDED
PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS, POSSIBLY GALES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
OUTER WATERS. GRADIENTS WILL BE TIGHTEST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
WATERS WITH HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR GALES ACROSS THE OUTER
WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE HATTERAS AS WELL AS NEAR SHORE ONSLOW BAY.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ203-
205.
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING FOR NCZ203-205.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ203.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ203-205.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR NCZ204-205.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ205.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM FRIDAY TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
AMZ135-231.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM FRIDAY TO 8 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
AMZ156-158.
DISCUSSION...EH/SK/RCF
AVIATION...EH/SK/RCF
MARINE...EH/SK
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