527
FXUS62 KMHX 230826
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
426 AM EDT FRI OCT 23 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ISSUED A GALE WARNING FOR THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF
CAPE HATTERAS FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.
EXPANDED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO INCLUDE THE ALBEMARLE
SOUND AND ALLIGATOR RIVER THROUGH LATE TONIGHT AND NEUSE AND
BAY RIVER ZONES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGES
1) BREEZY NE WINDS AND HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL BRING THE
POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL COASTAL IMPACTS FRIDAY INTO INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
2) DRY WITH COOLER THAN AVG CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
MARINE: STRONG NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS AND LARGE SEAS WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS INTO NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC AND LOW PRESSURE WELL OFF THE SE COAST WILL RESULT IN
A PERIOD OF BREEZY TO STRONG NE WINDS RETURNING LATE TODAY
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST,
ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF CAPE HATTERAS WHERE GRADIENTS WILL BE
TIGHTEST. THIS, COMBINED WITH DEVELOPING KING TIDES COULD LEAD
TO ADDITIONAL MINOR COASTAL IMPACTS (COASTAL FLOODING AND ROUGH
SURF).
FOR HATTERAS ISLAND, LONG PERIOD SWELLS WILL SUBSIDE A BIT
TODAY TO AROUND 6-7 FT, HOWEVER WITH INCREASING NE WINDS, SEAS
ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD UP TO 7-9 FT TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING THE THREAT OF OCEAN
OVERWASH TO VULNERABLE AREAS WHERE THE DUNE STRUCTURE HAS BEEN
COMPROMISED, ESPECIALLY AROUND THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE. TODAY'S
HIGH TIDES ARE AROUND 545 AM THIS MORNING AND 6 PM THIS EVENING.
THE NATIONAL PARKS SERVICE AND NCDOT HAVE REPORTED SUBSTANTIAL
BEACH EROSION FROM SOUTH NAGS HEAD TO BUXTON, ALONG WITH
SIGNIFICANT OVERWASH OCCURRING ON SIDE STREETS IN RODANTHE. DUE
TO HAZARDOUS ROAD CONDITIONS AND FLOODING, NC-12 REMAINS CLOSED
FROM THE MARC BASNIGHT BRIDGE TO RODANTHE. WILL CONTINUE THE
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR HATTERAS ISLAND DUE TO THE POTENTIAL
FOR OCEAN OVERWASH.
THE REGION IS ALSO ENTERING A KING TIDE CYCLE THIS WEEKEND THAT
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK. EXPECT HIGHER THAN NORMAL TIDE
CYCLES WITH MINOR "SUNNY DAY" COASTAL FLOODING ACROSS MUCH OF
THE TIDAL REGIONS OF ENC AROUND TIMES OF HIGH TIDE. THE AREAS
MOST SUSCEPTIBLE TO STREET FLOODING WILL BE LOW LYING AREAS
ALONG THE NEUSE AND BAY RIVERS AS WELL AS DOWNEAST CARTERET
COUNTY TO NORTH TOPSAIL BEACH AS PERSISTENT MODERATE NE WINDS
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO ADDITIONAL WATERS RISES.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
PLEASANTLY COOLER AIR MASS WILL REMAIN WITH US THROUGH THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS WITH TEMPS CONTINUING NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
CLIMO. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S RANGE.
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS HAVE DEVELOPED ONCE AGAIN
EARLY THIS MORNING WITH CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS. MANY INLAND
AREAS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S WITH A FEW OF
THE COOLEST LOCATIONS DROPPING INTO THE MID 30S. PATCHY LIGHT
FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SOME OF THE COOLEST LOCATIONS THROUGH
SUNRISE. NE WINDS WILL BRING LIGHT MIXING DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS TONIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND KEEPING TEMPS FROM DROPPING AS
MUCH AS THE PREVIOUS TWO NIGHTS AND GENERALLY EXPECT OVERNIGHT
LOWS FROM THE MID 40S INLAND TO THE 50S TO AROUND 60 ALONG THE
COAST.
AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS
THE AREA REMAINS UNDER CLEAR SKIES. HAVE SEEN PATCHY SHALLOW
STEAM FOG DEVELOP AT EWN AND PGV GIVEN GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS THIS MORNING BUT IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL
AT THESE TERMINALS. NE WINDS AROUND 5-10 KT INLAND TODAY WHILE
COASTAL SECTIONS WILL SEE WINDS PICK UP A BIT MORE THIS
AFTERNOON TO AROUND 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT AS
GRADIENTS BEGIN TO TIGHTEN WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTH. COULD SEE STCU BEGIN TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION LATE
TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS ALONG THE
COAST.
OUTLOOK (SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY): GENERALLY, EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH. HOWEVER,
COASTAL SECTIONS COULD SEE MVFR STCU AT TIMES. BREEZY NE WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MARINE
CURRENTLY SEEING N TO NE WINDS AROUND 5-15 KT ACROSS THE WATERS
WITH SEAS AROUND 6-9 FT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS
AND 2-5 FT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN FROM THE NORTH TODAY ACTING TO TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENTS
ACROSS THE REGION WITH NE WINDS INCREASING TO 15-25 KT WITH GUST
AROUND 25-30 KT LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL
BE ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE HATTERAS WHERE GUSTS UP
TO 35-40 ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MUCH OF
TONIGHT AND HAVE ISSUED A GALE WARNING FOR THESE ZONES. HAVE
ALSO EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO INCLUDE THE ALBEMARLE
SOUND AND THE ALLIGATOR, NEUSE AND BAY RIVERS.
OUTLOOK (SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY): TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENTS
BETWEEN STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID-ATLATIC STATES AND LOW
PRESSURE WELL OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
MODERATE TO STRONG N TO NE WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS BRINGING A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS THE WATERS INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. GRADIENTS WILL BE TIGHTEST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
WATERS AND COULD SEE ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF GALE FORCE CONDITIONS
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH HIGHEST PROBABILITY ACROSS THE
OUTER WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE HATTERAS AS WELL AS NEAR SHORE ONSLOW
BAY.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH
THIS EVENING FOR NCZ203-205.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ205.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 AM EDT
SATURDAY FOR AMZ131-230-231.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM EDT
MONDAY FOR AMZ135.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EDT
MONDAY FOR AMZ137.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT
TUESDAY FOR AMZ156-158.
GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
AMZ184-186.
GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
AMZ188.
DISCUSSION...EH/SK/RCF
AVIATION...EH/SK/RCF
MARINE...EH/SK
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page