048
FXUS62 KMHX 232301
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
701 PM EDT FRI OCT 23 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NEXT BATCH OF COASTAL FLOOD HEADLINES HAVE GONE OUT.
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
1) BREEZY NE WINDS AND HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL BRING THE
POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL COASTAL IMPACTS FRIDAY INTO INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
2) DRY WITH COOLER THAN AVG CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
MARINE: STRONG NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS AND LARGE SEAS WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS INTO NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC
AND LOW PRESSURE WELL OFF THE SE COAST WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF
BREEZY TO STRONG NE WINDS RETURNING TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF CAPE
HATTERAS WHERE GRADIENTS WILL BE TIGHTEST. THIS, COMBINED WITH
UPCOMING KING TIDE CYCLE COULD LEAD TO ADDITIONAL MINOR COASTAL
IMPACTS (COASTAL FLOODING AND ROUGH SURF).
FOR HATTERAS ISLAND, LONG PERIOD SWELLS HAVE SUBSIDED SLIGHTLY TO
AROUND 6-8 FT, HOWEVER WITH INCREASING NE WINDS, SEAS ARE EXPECTED
TO BUILD UP TO 7-9 FT TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING THE THREAT OF OCEAN OVERWASH TO VULNERABLE
AREAS WHERE THE DUNE STRUCTURE HAS BEEN COMPROMISED, ESPECIALLY
AROUND THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE. FOR OCEAN-SIDE: TONIGHT'S HIGH TIDE
IS AROUND 6 PM THIS EVENING AND BETWEEN 6 AND 7 AM SATURDAY.
SOUNDSIDE HIGH TIDES RANGE FROM 2 TO 3 HOURS BEHIND THE OCEANSIDE
TIDES. THE NATIONAL PARKS SERVICE AND NCDOT HAVE REPORTED
SUBSTANTIAL BEACH EROSION FROM SOUTH NAGS HEAD TO BUXTON, ALONG WITH
SIGNIFICANT OVERWASH OCCURRING ON SIDE STREETS IN RODANTHE. DUE TO
HAZARDOUS ROAD CONDITIONS AND FLOODING, NC-12 REMAINS CLOSED FROM
THE MARC BASNIGHT BRIDGE TO RODANTHE.
THE REGION IS ALSO ENTERING A KING TIDE CYCLE THIS WEEKEND THAT WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK. EXPECT HIGHER THAN NORMAL TIDE CYCLES
WITH MINOR "SUNNY DAY" COASTAL FLOODING ACROSS MUCH OF THE TIDAL
REGIONS OF ENC AROUND TIMES OF HIGH TIDE. THE AREAS MOST SUSCEPTIBLE
TO STREET FLOODING WILL BE LOW LYING AREAS ALONG THE NEUSE AND BAY
RIVERS AS WELL AS DOWNEAST CARTERET COUNTY TO NORTH TOPSAIL BEACH AS
PERSISTENT MODERATE NE WINDS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO ADDITIONAL WATERS
RISES. THE MORNING HIGH TIDE WILL BE THE HIGHEST OF THE DAILY TIDES
THIS WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK WITH THE KING TIDE PEAKING TUE AND WED.
BECAUSE OF ALL THIS AND THE MINOR LOCALIZED FLOODING THAT WAS
ALREADY SEEN WITH THIS MORNING'S HIGH TIDE, HAVE EXTENDED THE PRE-
EXISTING COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR HATTERAS ISLAND THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. HAVE ALSO ISSUED NEW COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORIES STARTING WITH TOMORROW MORNING'S HIGH TIDE FOR NORTHERN
OUTER BANKS, OCRACOKE, THE ENTIRE CRYSTAL COAST, AND THE AREAS
ADJACENT TO NEUSE AND BAY RIVERS (SOUTHERN CRAVEN AND PAMLICO
COUNTIES) LASTING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING'S HIGH TIDE. AS STATED
ABOVE, THE KING TIDE WILL PEAK TUE AND WED, SO THESE ADVISORIES WILL
LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED FROM THEIR CURRENT END TIMES, BUT DIDN'T
WANT TO TO GO OUT THAT FAR JUST YET TO SEE IF JUST AN EXTENSION WILL
SUFFICE OR IF A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING WOULD BE WARRANTED FOR THE
MON-WED TIMEFRAME.
KEY MESSAGE 2...PLEASANTLY COOLER AIR MASS WILL REMAIN WITH US
THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH TEMPS CONTINUING NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW CLIMO. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S RANGE.
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS LAST NIGHT LED TO LOWS IN THE
LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS THE BULK OF THE FA. SLIGHTLY MORE CLOUD
COVERAGE TONIGHT AND NE WINDS WILL BRING LIGHT MIXING DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND, KEEPING TEMPS FROM
DROPPING AS MUCH AS THE PREVIOUS TWO NIGHTS. GENERALLY EXPECT
OVERNIGHT LOWS FROM THE MID 40S INLAND TO THE 50S TO AROUND 60 ALONG
THE COAST. THESE TEMPS AND WINDS SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY FROST
DEVELOPMENT.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST ACROSS ALL TERMINALS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. THOUGH THERE IS AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME
SPOTTY MVFR CIGS, MOST LIKELY OVERNIGHT AND ALONG THE COAST
CLOSER TO THE MRH TERMINAL. STEADY NE WINDS TONIGHT AT 5-10 KTS
INLAND AND 10-20 KTS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND OBX WILL
KEEP THE FOG THREAT LOW. GRADIENT TIGHTENS FURTHER SAT MORNING
WITH 10-15 KT NE'RLY WINDS AND GUSTS UP AROUND 20 KTS AT TIMES
ACROSS ENC THROUGH THE DAY. HAVE SEEN STCU CONTINUE TO ADVECT
INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING. HAVE SHOWN THE LOWER CLOUDBASES
THIS EVENING AND INTO SAT MORNING, BUT HAVE LEFT PREVAILING
LINES AT FEW OR SCT. HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP FOR MRH DUE TO
MVFR CIGS WITH THEM HAVING THE GREATEST CHANCE, BUT STILL NOT
HIGH ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE A PREVAILING LINE HERE.
OUTLOOK (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY): GENERALLY, EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH. HOWEVER,
COASTAL SECTIONS COULD SEE MVFR STCU AT TIMES. BREEZY NE WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH WILL ACT TO TIGHTEN
THE PRESSURE GRADIENTS ACROSS THE REGION WITH NE WINDS
INCREASING TO 15-25 KT WITH GUST AROUND 25-30 KT THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ACROSS THE OFFSHORE
WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE HATTERAS WHERE GUSTS UP TO 35-40 ARE
EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT AND
CONTINUE THE GALE WARNING FOR THESE ZONES. NEARSHORE WATERS S OF
OCRACOKE INLET WILL LIKELY SEE SOME 35KT GUSTS, BUT THIS IS
EXPECTED TO BE A RATHER SMALL WINDOW AND CONFINED TO THE 15-20NM
RANGE OF THESE ZONES THIS EVENING INTO THE FIRST OF TONIGHT.
WITH RELATIVELY SHORTLIVED CONDITIONS BEING CONFINED TO LESS
THAN HALF OF THE ZONE, HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE THE SCA IN PLACE FOR
THESE ZONES BUT HAVE ALLOWED GALE GUST WORDING IN THE MARINE
HEADLINE TEXT PRODUCT (MWW). ALL OTHER SCAS REMAIN IN PLACE
WITH MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO START/END TIMES.
OUTLOOK (SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY): TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENTS
BETWEEN STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID-ATLATIC STATES AND LOW
PRESSURE WELL OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
MODERATE TO STRONG N TO NE WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS BRINGING A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS THE WATERS INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. GRADIENTS WILL BE TIGHTEST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
WATERS AND COULD SEE ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF GALE FORCE CONDITIONS
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH HIGHEST PROBABILITY ACROSS THE
OUTER WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE HATTERAS AS WELL AS NEAR SHORE ONSLOW
BAY.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 5 AM SATURDAY TO 11 AM EDT MONDAY
FOR NCZ094-194>196-199-203-204.
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR NCZ196-203>205.
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ203-
205.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NCZ205.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ131-230-
231.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ135.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ137.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ150-152-
154-156-158.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ184-186.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ188.
DISCUSSION...SK/CEB
AVIATION...CEB/RCF
MARINE...SK/CEB
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