659
FXUS62 KMHX 241938
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
338 PM EDT SAT OCT 24 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH WED
MORNING'S HIGH TIDE. SCAS ADJUSTED FOR START END TIMES. NEW GALE
WARNINGS ISSUED FOR OFFSHORE WATERS S OF CAPE HATTERAS. ADDED
SCHC OF -SHRA TO PORTIONS OF THE INNER BANKS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. AVIATION DISCO UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
1) BREEZY NE WINDS AND HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL BRING THE
POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL COASTAL IMPACTS THROUGH AT LEAST MID
WEEK.
2) MOSTLY DRY WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO TEMPS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND UPCOMING WEEK.
MARINE: STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS AND LARGE SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND AND CONTINUING
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC
AND LOW PRESSURE WELL OFF THE SE COAST WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF
BREEZY TO STRONG NE WINDS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF CAPE
HATTERAS WHERE GRADIENTS WILL BE TIGHTEST. THIS, COMBINED WITH
UPCOMING KING TIDE CYCLE LEAD TO ADDITIONAL MINOR COASTAL
IMPACTS (COASTAL FLOODING AND ROUGH SURF).
FOR HATTERAS ISLAND, SEAS OFFSHORE HAVE INCREASED YET AGAIN TO
8-10 FT, AND THESE HIGHER SEAS WILL CONTINUE TODAY, AND ONLY
VERY SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE COMING WEEK, AND LIKELY REMAIN
ABOVE 6 FT THROUGH MID WEEK. GUIDANCE AVAILABLE IN OUR SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO BE UNDERDONE SO WENT WITH NBM (HIGHEST AVAILABLE)
AND MANUALLY BUMPED UP VALUES FOR WATERS N OF CAPE HATTERAS. THIS
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING THE THREAT OF OCEAN OVERWASH TO
VULNERABLE AREAS WHERE THE DUNE STRUCTURE HAS BEEN COMPROMISED,
ESPECIALLY AROUND THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE. FOR OCEAN-SIDE: HIGH
TIDE IS BETWEEN 1830-1930EDT THIS EVENING, AND 0700-0800EDT SUN.
SOUNDSIDE HIGH TIDES LAG FROM 2 TO 3 HOURS BEHIND THE OCEANSIDE
TIDES. THE NATIONAL PARKS SERVICE AND NCDOT HAVE REPORTED
SUBSTANTIAL BEACH EROSION FROM SOUTH NAGS HEAD TO BUXTON, ALONG
WITH SIGNIFICANT OVERWASH OCCURRING ON SIDE STREETS IN RODANTHE.
DUE TO HAZARDOUS ROAD CONDITIONS AND FLOODING, NC-12 REMAINS
CLOSED FROM THE MARC BASNIGHT BRIDGE TO RODANTHE.
THE REGION IS ALSO ENTERING A KING TIDE CYCLE THIS WEEKEND THAT WILL
BUILD AND PEAK EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK. WITH A TREND IN HIGHER
SEAS COINCIDING WITH THE BUILDING TIDES NEXT WEEK, COASTAL
FLOODING WILL BE LIKELY WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. EVEN WITH WINDS
DIMINISHING BY MID WEEK, "SUNNY DAY" COASTAL FLOODING ACROSS
MUCH OF THE TIDAL REGIONS OF ENC AROUND TIMES OF HIGH TIDE WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MID WEEK. THE AREAS MOST SUSCEPTIBLE TO STREET
FLOODING WILL BE LOW LYING AREAS ALONG THE NEUSE AND BAY RIVERS
AS WELL AS DOWNEAST CARTERET COUNTY TO NORTH TOPSAIL BEACH WHICH
HAS ALREADY BEEN SEEN DURING THE LAST TWO MORNING'S HIGH TIDES.
THE MORNING HIGH TIDE WILL BE THE HIGHEST OF THE DAILY TIDES
THIS WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK WITH THE KING TIDE PEAKING TUE AND
WED.
HAVE EXTENDED THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES INTO WED AFTERNOON,
WITH KING TIDES LASTING THROUGH MID WEEK. THERE IS STILL
POTENTIAL THAT THE HEADLINES FOR TUE AND WED MAY NEED TO BE
UPGRADED TO COASTAL FLOOD WARNINGS. WILL WAIT FOR THIS DECISION
AFTER WE SEE WHAT SUN AND MON BRING. IN ADDITION, IF SEAS
INCREASE ANY FURTHER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST, A PERIOD OF
COASTAL FLOOD WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED FOR PARTS OF THE OBX, AND
WILL NEED TO MONITOR TRENDS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...POCKETS OF MOISTURE CONTINUE TO BE SQUEEZED
BETWEEN THE INLAND HIGH AND OFFSHORE LOW. THOUGH ALMOST ALL
GUIDANCE KEEPS THE BULK OF PRECIP ACTIVITY OFF THE COAST AND
PERHAPS SKIRTING OBX, SOME LIGHT RETURNS ARE EVIDENT ON KMHX
RADAR THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE ADDED A 15-19% CHANCE FOR PORTIONS
OF THE INNER BANKS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. PLEASANTLY
COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS WILL REMAIN WITH US THROUGH MUCH OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH NEAR AVERAGE HIGHS, TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
AVG LOWS, ESP MID WEEK WHEN HIGH PRES BUILDS AND GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING YET AGAIN SETS UP WITH LOWS WELL DOWN INTO
THE 40S WITH SOME 30S AGAIN POSSIBLE. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE MID 60S (OBX)
TO LOWER 70S RANGE.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST ACROSS ALL TERMINALS THROUGH
THE PERIOD DESPITE SOME DIURNAL STCU AROUND FL040. GRADIENT
TIGHTENS FURTHER TODAY WITH 10-15 KT NE'RLY WINDS AND GUSTS UP
AROUND 20 KTS AT TIMES ACROSS ENC THROUGH THE DAY.STEADY NE
WINDS TONIGHT AT 5-10 KTS INLAND AND 10-20 KTS ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST AND OBX WILL KEEP THE FOG THREAT LOW.
OUTLOOK (SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY): GENERALLY, EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH. HOWEVER, COASTAL
SECTIONS COULD SEE MVFR STCU AT TIMES. BREEZY NE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH WILL ACT TO TIGHTEN
THE PRESSURE GRADIENTS ACROSS THE REGION WITH NE WINDS
INCREASING TO 15-20 KT WITH GUST CONT 25-30 KT. GRADIENT WILL
STRENGTHEN BACK AGAIN SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT, AND HAVE ISSUED NEW
GALES FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS SOUTH OF C HATTERAS. NEARSHORE
WATERS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE SCA RANGE, AS WELL AS THE SOUNDS AND
ALLIGATOR/NEUSE RIVER, BEFORE GRADIENT BEGINS TO DIMINISH EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
OUTLOOK (SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY): HAVE INC SEAS DURING THE MID
WEEK PERIOD, AS AIFS/NBM SEAS HAVE TRENDED HIGHER WITH LATEST
24/00Z MODEL SUITE. SHOULD THEREFORE SEE SCA CONDITIONS
EXTENDING INTO AT LEAST MID WEEK FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS ZONES
DESPITE HIGH PRES BUILDING IN AND BRINGING A DIMINISHING TREND
IN WINDS INTO MID WEEK.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ094-
194>196-199-203>205.
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ196-
203>205.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NCZ203-205.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 AM EDT MONDAY
FOR AMZ131-230-231.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ135.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ137.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ150-152-
154-156-158.
GALE WARNING FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR
AMZ184.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ186-188.
DISCUSSION...TL/CEB
AVIATION...CEB
MARINE...TL/CEB
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