120
FXUS62 KMHX 250701
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
301 AM EDT SUN OCT 25 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
RESTRICTED GALE WARNINGS TO NEARSHORE AND OFFSHORE WATERS SOUTH
OF CAPE LOOKOUT ONLY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) BREEZY NE WINDS AND HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL BRING THE
POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL COASTAL IMPACTS THROUGH AT LEAST MID
WEEK.
2) MOSTLY DRY WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO TEMPS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK, THEN WARMING TO ABOVE CLIMO MID
TO LATE WEEK WITH CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS.
MARINE: GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS AND LARGE SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND AND CONTINUING
THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC
AND LOW PRESSURE WELL OFF THE SE COAST WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF
BREEZY TO STRONG NE WINDS THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK WITH
STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF CAPE
HATTERAS WHERE GRADIENTS WILL BE TIGHTEST. THIS, COMBINED WITH
UPCOMING KING TIDE CYCLE LEAD TO ADDITIONAL MINOR COASTAL
IMPACTS (COASTAL FLOODING AND ROUGH SURF).
FOR HATTERAS ISLAND, SEAS OFFSHORE CONTINUE IN THE 7-9 FOOT
RANGE AND WILL REMAIN IN THIS RANGE TODAY, AND THEN SLOWLY
SUBSIDE THROUGH THE COMING WEEK, BUT LONG PERIOD SWELLS WILL
CONTINUE TO CAUSE ISSUES FOR VULNERABLE AREAS IN CONJUNCTION
WITH THE BUILDING KING TIDES. FOR OCEAN-SIDE: HIGH TIDE IS
BETWEEN 0700-0800EDT SUN. SOUNDSIDE HIGH TIDES LAG FROM 2 TO 3
HOURS BEHIND THE OCEANSIDE TIDES. THE NATIONAL PARKS SERVICE AND
NCDOT HAVE REPORTED SUBSTANTIAL BEACH EROSION FROM SOUTH NAGS
HEAD TO BUXTON, ALONG WITH SIGNIFICANT OVERWASH OCCURRING ON
SIDE STREETS IN RODANTHE. DUE TO HAZARDOUS ROAD CONDITIONS AND
FLOODING, NC-12 REMAINS CLOSED FROM THE MARC BASNIGHT BRIDGE TO
RODANTHE.
COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE LIKELY WELL INTO THIS WEEK. EVEN WITH
WINDS DIMINISHING BY MID WEEK, "SUNNY DAY" COASTAL FLOODING
ACROSS MUCH OF THE TIDAL REGIONS OF ENC AROUND TIMES OF HIGH
TIDE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK, THEN SLOWLY
IMPROVE AS THE KING TIDES EASE LATER IN THE WEEK. THE AREAS
MOST SUSCEPTIBLE TO STREET FLOODING WILL BE LOW LYING AREAS
ALONG THE NEUSE AND BAY RIVERS AS WELL AS DOWNEAST CARTERET
COUNTY TO NORTH TOPSAIL BEACH WHICH HAS ALREADY BEEN SEEN DURING
THE LAST TWO MORNING'S HIGH TIDES.
THERE IS STILL POTENTIAL THAT THE HEADLINES FOR TUE AND WED MAY
NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO COASTAL FLOOD WARNINGS. WILL WAIT FOR
THIS DECISION AFTER WE SEE WHAT SUN AND MON BRING. IN ADDITION,
IF SEAS INCREASE ANY FURTHER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST, A PERIOD
OF COASTAL FLOOD WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED FOR PARTS OF THE OBX,
AND WILL NEED TO MONITOR TRENDS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...POCKETS OF MOISTURE CONTINUE TO BE SQUEEZED
BETWEEN THE INLAND HIGH AND OFFSHORE LOW. THOUGH ALMOST ALL
GUIDANCE KEEPS THE BULK OF PRECIP ACTIVITY OFF THE COAST AND
PERHAPS SKIRTING OBX, SOME LIGHT RETURNS CONTINUE ON KMHX RADAR,
BUT MOST OF THIS IS IN THE FORM OF INSIGNIFICANT NON-
ACCUMULATING SPRINKLES OR DRIZZLE. MOST AREAS REMAIN DRY TODAY,
ALONG WITH SEASONABLY COOL TEMPS IN THE LOW 70S INTERIOR TO 60S
COAST. PLEASANTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS WILL REMAIN WITH US
THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK, WITH NEAR CLIMO HIGHS, TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW AVG LOWS, ESP SUN AND MON NIGHTS WHEN GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING YET AGAIN SETS UP WITH LOWS WELL DOWN INTO THE 40S WITH
SOME 30S AGAIN POSSIBLE. HTS/THICKNESSES THEN BEGIN TO BUILD BY
MID WEEK, WITH TEMPS CLIMBING BACK ABOVE CLIMO WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID 70S, THEN UPPER 70S BY WEEKS END. LOWS WILL REMAIN CLOSER TO
CLIMO AS DRY AIRMASS REMAINS WITH A LARGE DIURNAL TEMP RANGE.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS CONT ACROSS ENC OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SOME MID
LEVEL STRATO-CU HAS CONTINUED TO STREAM IN ACROSS THE OBX AND
PORTIONS OF THE INNER BANKS, THOUGH WITH CEILINGS GENERALLY AT
7 KFT NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACT TO OPERATIONS IS FORECAST TODAY. NE
WINDS 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS UP NEAR 20 KTS DURING THE DAYTIME
MIXING PERIOD, THEN BECOMING LIGHT AGAIN BY THIS EVENING. KMRH
WILL CONT TO SEE GUSTY WINDS TODAY INTO THIS EVENING AS GRADIENT
IS TIGHTEST ALONG THE COAST.
OUTLOOK (MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY): GENERALLY, EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH. HOWEVER, COASTAL
SECTIONS COULD SEE MVFR STCU AT TIMES. COULD BE SOME POCKETS OF
MIFG EACH MORNING BEGINNING MONDAY AS STRONG INVERSION DEVELOPS
EACH MORNING WITH HIGH PRES OVERHEAD WITH SKC AND CALM WINDS.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH WILL ACT TO TIGHTEN
THE PRESSURE GRADIENTS ACROSS THE REGION WITH NE WINDS
15-20 KT WITH GUST CONT 25-30 KT. AREA OF GALES HAS SHRUNK AND
RETAINED TO WATERS GENERALLY SOUTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT WHERE PROBS
ARE STILL GREATER THAN 50% TODAY. LESSER CHANCES FOR GUSTY SCA
WINDS FOR ALLIGATOR/ALBEMARLE AS WIND FCST HAS EASED HERE, BUT
REMAINGING NEARSHORE WATERS INCLUDING PAMLICO AND NEUSE REMAIN
WITH SCA CONDITIONS CONT TODAY INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE WINDS
IMPROVE LATER TONIGHT AND MON WITH APPROACHING HIGH PRES.
OUTLOOK (MON THROUGH THU): HIGH PRES WILL BUILD IN EARLY TO MID
WEEK WITH WINDS DIMINISHING SIGNIFICANTLY, THOUGH SEAS WILL BE
SLOW TO SUBSIDE, AND LONGER PERIOD HIGH SWELLS APPEAR TO CONT AS
ADVECTED 6+ FT SWELLS AFFECT ESP THE SOUTHERN/CTRL WATERS SOUTH
OF OREGON INLET THROUGH MID/LATE WEEK.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ094-
194>196-199-203>205.
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NCZ196-199-
203>205.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ203-205.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR AMZ135.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ137-
231.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ150.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ156.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ158-188.
DISCUSSION...TL/CEB
AVIATION...TL
MARINE...TL/CEB
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