500
FXUS62 KMHX 252300
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
700 PM EDT SUN OCT 25 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION DISCUSSION HAS BEEN UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
1) BREEZY NE WINDS AND HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL BRING THE
POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL COASTAL IMPACTS THROUGH AT LEAST MID
WEEK.
2) MOSTLY DRY WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO TEMPS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK, THEN WARMING TO ABOVE CLIMO MID
TO LATE WEEK WITH CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS.
MARINE: GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS AND LARGE SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND AND CONTINUING
THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC
AND LOW PRESSURE WELL OFF THE SE COAST WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF
BREEZY TO STRONG NE WINDS THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK WITH
STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF CAPE
HATTERAS WHERE GRADIENTS WILL BE TIGHTEST. THIS, COMBINED WITH
UPCOMING KING TIDE CYCLE LEAD TO ADDITIONAL MINOR COASTAL
IMPACTS (COASTAL FLOODING AND ROUGH SURF).
FOR HATTERAS ISLAND, SEAS OFFSHORE CONTINUE IN THE 7-9 FOOT
RANGE AND WILL REMAIN IN THIS RANGE TODAY, AND THEN SLOWLY
SUBSIDE THROUGH THE COMING WEEK, BUT LONG PERIOD SWELLS WILL
CONTINUE TO CAUSE ISSUES FOR VULNERABLE AREAS IN CONJUNCTION
WITH THE BUILDING KING TIDES. FOR OCEAN-SIDE: HIGH TIDE IS
ARE 1930EDT TONIGHT AND BETWEEN 0730-0800EDT MON. SOUNDSIDE
HIGH TIDES LAG FROM 2 TO 3 HOURS BEHIND THE OCEANSIDE TIDES. THE
NATIONAL PARKS SERVICE AND NCDOT HAVE REPORTED SUBSTANTIAL
BEACH EROSION FROM SOUTH NAGS HEAD TO BUXTON, ALONG WITH
SIGNIFICANT OVERWASH OCCURRING ON SIDE STREETS IN RODANTHE. DUE
TO HAZARDOUS ROAD CONDITIONS AND FLOODING, NC-12 REMAINS CLOSED
FROM THE MARC BASNIGHT BRIDGE TO RODANTHE.
COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE LIKELY WELL INTO THIS WEEK. EVEN WITH
WINDS DIMINISHING BY MID WEEK, "SUNNY DAY" COASTAL FLOODING
ACROSS MUCH OF THE TIDAL REGIONS OF ENC AROUND TIMES OF HIGH
TIDE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK, THEN SLOWLY
IMPROVE AS THE KING TIDES EASE LATER IN THE WEEK. THE AREAS
MOST SUSCEPTIBLE TO STREET FLOODING WILL BE LOW LYING AREAS
ALONG THE NEUSE AND BAY RIVERS AS WELL AS DOWNEAST CARTERET
COUNTY TO NORTH TOPSAIL BEACH WHICH HAS ALREADY BEEN SEEN DURING
THE LAST TWO MORNING'S HIGH TIDES. SOME FLOODING OCCURED WITH
THIS MORNING'S HIGH TIDE IN BEAUFORT COUNTY, SO HAVE ADDED THEM
TO THE ADVISORIES WITH WATER LEVELS ONLY GETTING HIGHER THROUGH
MIDWEEK.
THERE IS STILL POTENTIAL THAT THE HEADLINES FOR TUE AND WED MAY
NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO COASTAL FLOOD WARNINGS. WILL WAIT FOR
THIS DECISION AFTER WE SEE WHAT MON MORNING'S HIGH TIDE BRINGS.
IN ADDITION, IF SEAS INCREASE ANY FURTHER THAN CURRENTLY
FORECAST, A PERIOD OF COASTAL FLOOD WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED FOR
PARTS OF THE OBX, AND WILL NEED TO MONITOR TRENDS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...POCKETS OF MOISTURE CONTINUE TO BE SQUEEZED
BETWEEN THE INLAND HIGH AND OFFSHORE LOW, THOUGH ALMOST ALL
GUIDANCE KEEPS THE BULK OF PRECIP ACTIVITY OFF THE COAST AND
PERHAPS SKIRTING OBX. MOST AREAS REMAIN DRY TODAY, ALONG WITH
SEASONABLY COOL TEMPS IN THE LOW 70S INTERIOR TO 60S COAST.
PLEASANTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS WILL REMAIN WITH US THROUGH
EARLY THIS WEEK, WITH NEAR CLIMO HIGHS, TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVG
LOWS, ESP SUN AND MON NIGHTS WHEN GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING YET
AGAIN SETS UP WITH LOWS WELL DOWN INTO THE 40S WITH SOME 30S
AGAIN POSSIBLE TUE MORNING WHEN THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS
CLOSER TO ENC ALLOWING NOCTURNAL WINDS TO FALL OFF HARDER AND
SKIES TO CLEAR MORE THAN THE LAST FEW NIGHTS. HTS/THICKNESSES
THEN BEGIN TO BUILD BY MID WEEK, WITH TEMPS CLIMBING BACK ABOVE
CLIMO WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S, THEN UPPER 70S BY WEEKS END.
LOWS WILL REMAIN CLOSER TO CLIMO AS DRY AIRMASS REMAINS WITH A
LARGE DIURNAL TEMP RANGE.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
FORECASTING PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS ENC OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. CURRENT OBS SHOW 5-15 KT NE'RLY WINDS AND GUSTS UP
TOWARDS 20 KTS ALONG THE COAST. PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
ARE NOTED ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND AROUND MRH BUT WITH
CEILINGS GENERALLY AROUND 6-7 KFT NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ARE
EXPECTED TO THE ROUTES. AS WE GET INTO TONIGHT, WINDS EASE
INLAND TO AROUND 5 KTS AND WITH CLEAR SKIES WE COULD BE IN
STORE FOR A GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT TONIGHT ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAIN. WHILE TYPICALLY THIS WOULD AT LEAST LEAD TO A
LOW END THREAT FOR PATCHY GROUND FOG, THINK WINDS WILL KEEP US
MIXED ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE A FOG THREAT. WITH BOTH HREF AND REFS
SHOWING PROBABILITIES OF VIS BELOW 5 MILES SITTING AROUND
10-20% ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN COASTAL PLAIN TONIGHT, THIS GIVES
FURTHER CONFIDENCE THE FOG THREAT WILL BE NIL TONIGHT. AS WE
GET INTO MONDAY, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER ENC AND EXPECT
CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS WITH DIURNAL CLOUD COVER AT 6-7 KFT
EXPECTED AND 5-10 KT NE WINDS ACROSS ENC.
OUTLOOK (MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY): GENERALLY, EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH. HOWEVER, COASTAL
SECTIONS COULD SEE MVFR STCU AT TIMES. WINDS BECOME CALM MON
NIGHT/EARLY TUE AS STRONG INVERSION DEVELOPS WITH HIGH PRES
OVERHEAD WITH SKC AND CALM WINDS, OPENING POTENTIAL FOR
IMPACTFUL FOG TO DEVELOP.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH WILL ACT TO TIGHTEN
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WITH NE WINDS 15-20 KT
WITH GUST CONT 25-30 KT, 35-40KT GUSTS OVER COASTAL AND OFFSHORE
WATERS S OF CAPE LOOKOUT. LESSER CHANCES FOR GUSTY SCA WINDS
FOR ALLIGATOR/ALBEMARLE AS WIND FCST HAS EASED HERE, BUT
REMAINING NEARSHORE WATERS INCLUDING PAMLICO AND NEUSE REMAIN
WITH SCA CONDITIONS. WINDS DECREASE LATER TONIGHT AND MON WITH
APPROACHING HIGH PRES, ALLOWING FOR MARINE HEADLINES TO BEGIN
STEPPING DOWN A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK (MON THROUGH THU): HIGH PRES WILL BUILD IN EARLY TO MID
WEEK WITH WINDS DIMINISHING SIGNIFICANTLY, THOUGH SEAS WILL BE
SLOW TO SUBSIDE, AND LONGER PERIOD HIGH SWELLS APPEAR TO CONT AS
ADVECTED 6+ FT SWELLS AFFECT ESP THE SOUTHERN/CTRL WATERS SOUTH
OF OREGON INLET THROUGH MID/LATE WEEK.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR NCZ080-094-
194>196-199-203>205.
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ196-
199-203>205.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ203-205.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ135.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR AMZ137.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ150.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ156.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ158.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ188.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ231.
DISCUSSION...TL/CEB
AVIATION...CEB/RCF
MARINE...TL/CEB
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