461
FXUS62 KMHX 260723
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
323 AM EDT MON OCT 26 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
CANCELLED REMAINING SOUNDSIDE SCA HEADLINES, AND REMAINING
OFFSHORE GALE WARNING.
UPDATED 26/06Z TAF'S.
KEY MESSAGES
1) BREEZY NE WINDS AND HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL BRING THE
POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL COASTAL FLOODING THROUGH AT LEAST MID
WEEK.
2) MOSTLY DRY WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO TEMPS THROUGH
EARLY THIS WEEK, THEN WARMING TO ABOVE CLIMO MID TO LATE WEEK
WITH CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS. NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN LATE WEEKEND
TO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MARINE: GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS AND LARGE SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND AND CONTINUING
THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC
AND LOW PRESSURE WELL OFF THE FL COAST WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD
OF CONTINUED LARGE WAVES ACROSS THE OBX. THE HIGH WAVES COMBINED
WITH KING TIDES THIS WEEK WILL LEAD TO ADDITIONAL MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING IMPACTS.
FOR HATTERAS ISLAND, SEAS OFFSHORE CONTINUE IN THE 7-9 FOOT
RANGE AND WILL REMAIN IN THIS RANGE TODAY, AND THEN SLOWLY
SUBSIDE THROUGH THE COMING WEEK, BUT LONG PERIOD SWELLS WILL
CONTINUE TO CAUSE ISSUES FOR VULNERABLE AREAS. FOR OCEAN-SIDE:
HIGH TIDE IS BETWEEN 0730-0800 EDT TODAY. SOUNDSIDE HIGH TIDES
LAG FROM 2 TO 3 HOURS BEHIND THE OCEANSIDE TIDES. THE NATIONAL
PARKS SERVICE AND NCDOT HAVE REPORTED SUBSTANTIAL BEACH EROSION
FROM SOUTH NAGS HEAD TO BUXTON, ALONG WITH SIGNIFICANT OVERWASH
OCCURRING ON SIDE STREETS IN RODANTHE. DUE TO HAZARDOUS ROAD
CONDITIONS AND FLOODING, NC-12 REMAINS CLOSED FROM THE MARC
BASNIGHT BRIDGE TO RODANTHE.
COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE LIKELY WELL INTO THIS WEEK DESPITE THE
DIMINISHING OF WINDS, WITH "SUNNY DAY" FLOODING ACROSS MUCH OF
THE TIDAL REGIONS OF ENC AROUND TIMES OF HIGH TIDE, THEN SLOWLY
IMPROVE AS THE KING TIDES EASE LATER IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES CONTINUE THROUGH THE HIGH TIDE
CYCLE ON THURSDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...PLEASANTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS WILL
REMAIN WITH US THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK, WITH NEAR CLIMO HIGHS,
TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVG LOWS, ESP SUN AND MON NIGHTS WHEN GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING YET AGAIN SETS UP WITH LOWS WELL DOWN INTO
THE 40S WITH SOME 30S AGAIN POSSIBLE TUE MORNING WHEN THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGES INTO ENC ALLOWING FOR EXCELLENT RAD COOLING
UNDER CLEAR SKIES, CALM WINDS, AND LOW TD'S. HTS/THICKNESSES
THEN BEGIN TO BUILD BY MID WEEK, WITH TEMPS CLIMBING BACK ABOVE
CLIMO WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S, THEN UPPER 70S BY THURSDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND. LOWS WILL REMAIN CLOSER TO CLIMO (50S) AS DRY
AIRMASS REMAINS WITH A LARGE DIURNAL TEMP RANGE.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR MAINLY SKC THROUGH THE TAF PD. CHANCES FOR FG/BR ARE VERY
LOW THROUGH THIS MORNING WITH BOTH HREF AND REFS SHOWING
PROBABILITIES OF VIS BELOW 5 MILES SITTING AROUND 10-20% ACROSS
THE FAR WESTERN COASTAL PLAIN. WINDS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER TODAY
WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING IN, AND SPEEDS IN THE 5-10 KT RANGE,
THEN BECOMING CALM TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING IN.
OUTLOOK (TUE THROUGH FRI): GENERALLY, EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH QUASI-STATIONARY HIGH PRES OVER
THE REGION. HOWEVER, COASTAL SECTIONS COULD SEE OCNL MVFR STCU
AT TIMES WITH FLOW CONT OFF THE ATLANTIC. WINDS BECOME CALM MON
NIGHT/EARLY TUE AS STRONG INVERSION DEVELOPS WITH HIGH PRES
OVERHEAD WITH SKC AND CALM WINDS, OPENING POTENTIAL FOR SOME
PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP, THOUGH WITH DRY AIRMASS CONT, WIDESPREAD
FOG THREAT IS QUITE LOW.
MARINE
HIGH PRES HAS BEGUN TO MOVE INTO ENC, AND WINDS ARE RESPONDING
BY DIMINISHING. ALL REMAINING SCA HEADLINES ARE OVER FOR THE
PAMLICO SOUND, AND GALES HAVE ENDED FOR THE OUTER SOUTHERN
COASTAL WATERS. HIGH SEAS WILL CONT TODAY IN THE 6-9 FT RANGE.
OUTLOOK (TUE THROUGH FRI): LONGER PERIOD SWELLS ARE SLOW TO
SUBSIDE THIS WEEK WITH A TIGHTENED PRES GRADIENT REMAINING TO
THE SOUTH OF ENC, AND SCA HEADLINES CONT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS
SOUTH OF OREGON INLET THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR NCZ080-094-
194>196-199-203>205.
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NCZ196-199-
203>205.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR AMZ150.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ152-154-
156-158.
DISCUSSION...TL/CEB
AVIATION...TL
MARINE...TL/CEB
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