771
FXUS62 KMHX 262330
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
730 PM EDT MON OCT 26 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) BREEZY NE WINDS AND HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL BRING THE
POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL COASTAL FLOODING THROUGH AT LEAST MID
WEEK.
2) MOSTLY DRY WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO TEMPS THROUGH
EARLY THIS WEEK, THEN WARMING TO ABOVE CLIMO MID TO LATE WEEK
WITH CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS. NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN LATE WEEKEND
TO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MARINE: ELEVATED SEAS MAY CONTINUE TO BRING HAZARDOUS BOATING
CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC
AND LOW PRESSURE WELL OFF THE FL COAST WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD
OF CONTINUED LARGE WAVES ACROSS THE OBX. THE HIGH WAVES COMBINED
WITH KING TIDES THIS WEEK WILL LEAD TO ADDITIONAL MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING IMPACTS.
FOR HATTERAS ISLAND, SEAS OFFSHORE ARE IN THE 6-8 FOOT RANGE,
SLOWLY SUBSIDING THROUGH THE COMING WEEK, BUT LONG PERIOD
SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE ISSUES FOR VULNERABLE AREAS. FOR
OCEAN-SIDE: HIGH TIDE IS BETWEEN 0800-0830 PM EDT TODAY.
SOUNDSIDE HIGH TIDES LAG BY UP TO 3 HOURS BEHIND THE OCEANSIDE
TIDES. THE NATIONAL PARKS SERVICE AND NCDOT HAVE REPORTED
SUBSTANTIAL BEACH EROSION FROM SOUTH NAGS HEAD TO BUXTON, ALONG
WITH SIGNIFICANT OVERWASH OCCURRING ON SIDE STREETS IN RODANTHE.
DUE TO HAZARDOUS ROAD CONDITIONS AND FLOODING, NC-12 REMAINS
CLOSED FROM THE MARC BASNIGHT BRIDGE TO RODANTHE.
COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE LIKELY WELL INTO THIS WEEK DESPITE THE
DIMINISHING OF WINDS, WITH "SUNNY DAY" FLOODING ACROSS MUCH OF
THE TIDAL REGIONS OF ENC AROUND TIMES OF HIGH TIDE, THEN SLOWLY
IMPROVE AS THE KING TIDES EASE LATER IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES CONTINUE THROUGH THE HIGH TIDE
CYCLE ON THURSDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...PLEASANTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS WILL
REMAIN WITH US THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK, WITH NEAR CLIMO HIGHS,
TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVG LOWS. LOWS GETTING WELL DOWN INTO THE 40S
WITH SOME 30S AGAIN POSSIBLE WHEN THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES INTO
ENC ALLOWING FOR EXCELLENT RAD COOLING UNDER CLEAR SKIES, CALM
WINDS, AND LOW TD'S. LOW END FOG THREAT EXISTS WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED CONDITIONS, WITH BEST CHANCES EAST OF HWY 17.
KEPT FOG OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW GIVEN THE LOW PROBS, BUT
MAY BE ADDED WITH LATER UPDATES. HTS/THICKNESSES BEGIN TO BUILD
BY MID WEEK, WITH TEMPS CLIMBING BACK ABOVE CLIMO WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 70S, THEN UPPER 70S BY THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. LOWS
WILL REMAIN CLOSER TO CLIMO (50S) AS DRY AIRMASS REMAINS WITH A
LARGE DIURNAL TEMP RANGE.
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL LEAD TO GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT,
THERE WILL BE A RISK OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS DUE TO BR/MIFG/FG.
GUIDANCE IS MIXED ON WHETHER OR NOT ALL TAF SITES WILL SEE
REDUCTIONS TO VIS. GIVEN THE POTENTIAL, THE 00Z TAFS ARE MOSTLY
UNCHANGED FROM THE 18Z TAFS. IT'S WORTH POINTING OUT THAT THE
TAF SITES WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES OF REDUCED VIS ARE KEWN
AND KMRH WHERE THE HIGHEST LOW- LEVEL MOISTURE MAY RESIDE.
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE BY 13Z ON TUESDAY. BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON, A MODEST NORTHEAST WIND MAY REDEVELOP ALONG WITH A
FEW/SCT CUMULUS LAYER.
OUTLOOK (TUE THROUGH FRI): GENERALLY, EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH QUASI-STATIONARY HIGH PRES OVER
THE REGION. HOWEVER, COASTAL SECTIONS COULD SEE OCNL MVFR STCU
AT TIMES WITH FLOW CONT OFF THE ATLANTIC.
MARINE
SEAS HAVE FALLEN BELOW 6 FT FOR MOST OF THE NEARSHORE COASTAL
WATERS LEG FROM DUCK TO OREGON INLET THIS EVENING. IN LIGHT OF
THIS, THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WAS CANCELLED EARLY. THE
REMAINING ADVISORIES WERE UNCHANGED.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: HIGH PRES HAS BEGUN TO MOVE INTO ENC, AND
WINDS ARE RESPONDING BY DIMINISHING. ELEVATED SEAS WILL CONT
TODAY IN THE 6-8 FT RANGE, AND A SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
COASTAL WATERS. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE END TIME OF
THE SCA, IN A BEST CASE SCENARIO WE ARE BELOW 6 FT TUESDAY
NIGHT. HOWEVER, GUIDANCE HAS BEEN UNDERDONE ON WAVE HEIGHTS AS
OF LATE, SO ELECTED TO KEEP THE SCA END TIME AT THURSDAY FOR
NOW.
OUTLOOK (TUE THROUGH FRI): LONGER PERIOD SWELLS ARE LIKELY SLOW
TO SUBSIDE THIS WEEK WITH A TIGHTENED PRES GRADIENT REMAINING
TO THE SOUTH OF ENC, AND SCA HEADLINES CONT FOR THE COASTAL
WATERS SOUTH OF OREGON INLET THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR NCZ080-094-
194>196-199-203>205.
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ196-
203>205.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ152-154-
156-158.
DISCUSSION...TL/RJ
AVIATION...RM/TL
MARINE...RM/TL/CEB/RJ
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