985
FXUS62 KMHX 270820
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
420 AM EDT TUE OCT 27 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
HAVE CANCELLED THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR PAMLICO, BEAUFORT,
CRAVEN, COASTAL ONSLOW COUNTIES, AS THE GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS
CAUSING THE ELEVATED WATER LEVELS HAVE DIMINISHED.
KEY MESSAGES
1) BREEZY NE WINDS AND HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL BRING THE
POTENTIAL FOR CONTINUED MINOR COASTAL FLOODING THROUGH AT LEAST
MID WEEK.
2) MOSTLY DRY WITH CLIMO TEMPS THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK, THEN
WARMING TO ABOVE CLIMO MID TO LATE WEEK WITH CONTINUED DRY
CONDITIONS. NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN LATE WEEKEND TO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MARINE: ELEVATED SEAS MAY CONTINUE TO BRING HAZARDOUS BOATING
CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC
AND LOW PRESSURE WELL OFF THE FL COAST WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD
OF CONTINUED LONG PERIOD SWELL ACROSS THE OBX. THE HIGH WAVES
COMBINED WITH KING TIDES THIS WEEK WILL LEAD TO ADDITIONAL MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING IMPACTS.
FOR HATTERAS ISLAND, SEAS OFFSHORE ARE IN THE 4-7 FOOT RANGE
EARLY THIS MORNING AND CONTINUING TO SUBSIDE, BUT THE LONG
PERIOD SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE ISSUES FOR VULNERABLE
AREAS. FOR OCEAN- SIDE: HIGH TIDE IS AROUND 0900 EDT TODAY.
SOUNDSIDE HIGH TIDES LAG BY UP TO 3 HOURS BEHIND THE OCEANSIDE
TIDES. THE NATIONAL PARKS SERVICE AND NCDOT HAVE REPORTED
SUBSTANTIAL BEACH EROSION FROM SOUTH NAGS HEAD TO BUXTON, ALONG
WITH SIGNIFICANT OVERWASH OCCURRING ON SIDE STREETS IN RODANTHE.
DUE TO HAZARDOUS ROAD CONDITIONS AND FLOODING, NC-12 REMAINS
CLOSED FROM THE MARC BASNIGHT BRIDGE TO RODANTHE.
COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE LIKELY WELL INTO THIS WEEK DESPITE THE
DIMINISHING OF WINDS, WITH "SUNNY DAY" FLOODING ACROSS MUCH OF
THE TIDAL REGIONS OF ENC AROUND TIMES OF HIGH TIDE, THEN SLOWLY
IMPROVE AS THE KING TIDES EASE LATER IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES CONTINUE THROUGH THE HIGH TIDE
CYCLE ON THURSDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...DRY HIGH PRES WITH NEAR CLIMO TEMPS EXPECTED
TODAY AND TONIGHT, THEN WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL MID WEEK THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. AFTER A CHILLY START TODAY WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER
30S TO LOW 40S FOR MOST OF US, TEMPS RAPIDLY WARM TODAY WITH
BUILDING HTS/THICKNESSES AND HIGHS IN THE MID 70S INLAND TO
UPPER 60S OBX. NORMAL HIGHS ARE IN THE LOW 70S. PATCHY FOG,
LOCALLY DENSE, HAS FORMED AND WILL BE WITH US THROUGH THIS
MORNING'S COMMUTE, WITH THE HIGHEST CONCENTRATION ACROSS COASTAL
COMMUNTIES WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE HIGHEST.
MID WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND, HTS/THICKNESSES BUILD FURTHER, AND TEMPS
CLIMBING BACK TO 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO WITH HIGHS 75-80
INLAND TO LOW 70S OBX. LOW TEMPS WILL WARM ABOVE CLIMO AS WELL
WITH READINGS IN THE MID 50S FOR MOST LOCALES AWAY FROM THE
IMMEDIATE COAST.
AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
PATCHY DENSE FOG HAS FORMED AT KEWN AND KPGV UNDER CLEAR SKIES
AND CALM WINDS. BEST CHANCES TO SUSTAIN THE DENSE FOG IS AT EWN
WHERE PROBS ARE HIGHEST THROUGH SUNRISE AND WHERE THE HIGHEST
LOW- LEVEL MOISTURE RESIDES. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE AFTER
SUNRISE, BETWEEN 12-13Z. BY AFTERNOON, LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN
PLACE WILL PRODUCE SOME SCT STRATO CU BUT SHOULD REMAIN VFR.
OUTLOOK (WED THROUGH SAT): ANOTHER FOG AND LOW STRATUS THREAT
EARLY WED MORNING, THIS TIME WITH BEST CHANCES FOR COASTAL PLAIN
SITES (KISO AND KPGV). OTHERWISE, EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST SAT WITH QUASI- STATIONARY HIGH PRES
OVER THE REGION. COASTAL SECTIONS COULD SEE OCNL MVFR STCU AT
TIMES WITH FLOW CONT OFF THE ATLANTIC.
MARINE
HIGH PRES RIDGING INTO THE WATERS BRINGING LIGHT TO CALM WINDS,
AND ELEVATED SEAS ARE ONLY SLOWLY SUBSIDING DUE TO THE LONG
PERIOD NATURE OF THE SWELLS. SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT SOUTH OF
OREGON INLET. SEAS SUBISDE FURTHER TO LESS THAN 6 FT BY TONIGHT,
BUT WILL ONLY BE SHORT LIVED, SO HAVE CONT SCA HEADLINES.
OUTLOOK (WED THROUGH SAT): AFOREMENTIONED LULL IN 6+ FT SEAS IS
SHORT LIVED, AS BY EARLY WED MORNING RENEWED NERLY PRES GRADIENT
REDEVELOPS WITH SCA SEAS AND/OR WINDS. THE WINDS AND SEAS
FINALLY DIMINISH BY EARLY THU NORTH OF OCRACOKE, AND BY THU
EVENING FOR REMAINING SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR NCZ195-196-
203>205.
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NCZ196-
203>205.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ156-158.
DISCUSSION...TL/RJ
AVIATION...TL
MARINE...TL/RJ
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